Does Villarreal worsen the Andalusian crisis?

Before the first international break, the “derbi madrileno” is the absolute top game in Spain this weekend on Sunday evening. But already on Sunday afternoon a most interesting match is on the agenda. The clash between CF Villarreal and Sevilla pits two international starters against each other, whose goal is to qualify for the top flight.

However, only the yellow submarine from Villarreal was able to underline these ambitions in the first five games of the season. With ten points, Emery’s team can look back on a very satisfactory start to the season. The situation is completely different for Julen Lopetegui’s Andalusians, who have disappointed all along the line with just four points from five games. Due to the visitors’ poor start to the season, Villarreal are seen as clear favourites against Sevilla according to current betting odds. Not even odds of 1.80 are being offered for the Conference League starters to win.

It is important to mention that Villarreal cannot count on home advantage on Sunday afternoon. The home La Ceramica stadium is currently being rebuilt, and accordingly Villarreal will have to play their current home games at UD Levante’s stadium, the Ciudad de Valencia.

Villarreal – Statistics & current form

Last season Villarreal still had the chance to prove themselves in the Champions League and even reached the semi-finals. In 2022/23, the Conference League is the international home for head coach Unai Emery’s yellow submarine. The top priority this season is undoubtedly the league, and the Conference League games will be used for rotation. In addition, some youngsters who are otherwise in the B team can gain experience in the first team.

Emery is effectively coaching two teams at the moment, as the team during the week has little in common with the line-up at the weekend in LaLiga. Compared to the 1-0 defeat against Betis Sevilla last weekend, Emery made ten (!) changes to his starting line-up on Thursday. Only top talent Yeremy Pino was again in the starting eleven. The youngster also provided the assist for U21 international Alex Baena’s 2-1 winner. With two wins, Villarreal’s second string got off to a commanding start in the group stage.

Bearish defence in the league

As in the first group match against Lech Poznan, however, Villarreal failed to keep the box clean. On the domestic stage, the picture is completely different, with Argentinian goalkeeper Geronimo Rulli keeping his box clean in the first four league games. He was forced to make his first save in the 1-0 defeat to Betis, thus losing his spotless record.

Nevertheless, Villarreal, with their best line-up, are extremely disciplined and concentrated. For years, the yellow submarine has been characterised by possession football at a technically high level. Under Emery, the risks are chosen carefully. Last year, too, the team conceded less than one goal per game on average (37 goals in 38 games). In the yellow submarine, betting on an under 2.5 in the league currently offers itself quite well. Between Villarreal and Sevilla, this tip is offered with odds of up to 1.96.

Also in favour of few goals is the absence of top striker Gerard Moreno, who injured his thigh and will not return until after the international break. Instead, Arnaut Danjuma made his season debut against Hapoel Beer Sheva after recovering from injury. However, he still lacks the finishing touch, as shown by the penalty in minute 90+5, which he chased metres over the goal.

Predicted Villarreal line-up:
Rulli – Pedraza, Torres, Albiol, Femenia – Lo Celso, Capoue, Parejo, Pino – Jackson, Danjuma

Last matches played by Villarreal:

European Conference League Grp. C
16/09/2022 – Hapoel Beer Sheva 1 – 2 FC Villarreal

La Liga
12/09/2022 – Real Betis 1 – 0 Villarreal FC

Europa Conference League Grp. C
08/09/2022 – FC Villarreal 4 – 3 Lech Poznan

La Liga
04/09/2022 – FC Villarreal 4 – 0 Elche

28/08/2022 – Getafe 0 – 0 Villarreal FC

Sevilla – Statistics & current form

The former Spanish national coach Julen Lopetegui formed from Sevilla in recent years a team that not only plays for the Champions League qualification, but a team that at times also played for the title. The Andalusians were denied the big crown, but with three top-four finishes in a row, Sevilla have advanced to become the best team behind the two Madrid clubs and Barcelona in recent years.

Disappointing start to the season

In contrast to this trio, it is not the individual players who stand out at Sevilla, but the Lopetegui eleven presents itself as a strong collective. Lopetegui also has no problems sending two similarly strong teams onto the field. The available squad width is enormous and time and again well-known players languish on the bench for 90 minutes.

So far, however, Sevilla have not managed to get the available horsepower on the road. With only four points from the first five games, the Andalusians have made their weakest start to the season since the 2015/16 season. In particular, the weakening defence has been a major problem so far, as Sevilla have already conceded ten goals. In comparison, Lopetegui’s side conceded only two goals in their first five games last season.

With Osasuna, Real Valladolid, Almeria and Espanyol Barcelona, Sevilla have also faced four opponents who are by no means on the same level as Lopetegui’s team. Only the defeat against FC Barcelona was to some extent to be expected.

Internationally, things have not gone according to plan yet either and Sevilla have not scored a goal in their first two Champions League matches. At least they managed a 0-0 draw against Danish champions FC Copenhagen on Wednesday evening, the first “nil” of the current season. However, Sevilla have not scored in either of their two CL matches. So the offensive also shows potential for improvement. This fact also speaks in favour of a forecast between Villarreal and Sevilla on the under 2.5.

Predicted Sevilla line-up:
Bono – Acuna, Nianzou, Gudelj, Carmona – Fernando, Rakitic – Torres, Isco, Januzaj – En-Nesyri

Last matches played by Sevilla:

Champions League Grp. G
15/09/2022 – FC Copenhagen 0 – 0 FC Sevilla

La Liga
10/09/2022 – Espanyol 2 – 3 FC Sevilla

Champions League Grp. G
07/09/2022 – Sevilla FC 0 – 4 Manchester City

La Liga
04/09/2022 – Sevilla FC 0 – 3 FC Barcelona

28/08/2022 = Almeria 2 – 1 Sevilla FC

Villarreal – Sevilla Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

When it comes to games between Villarreal and Sevilla, betting on the away win is risky, as the respective guest has only celebrated twelve victories in the 50 previous games (five away wins for Villarreal, seven for Sevilla). Nevertheless, the direct comparison with 22:13 wins speaks a clear language for the Andalusians from Sevilla, who also collected four points against the yellow submarine last season. In three of the last four LaLiga duels, there was also a maximum of two goals to see, the Under 2.5 is certainly an interesting option in this respect.

Villarreal – Sevilla Tip

The momentum ahead of this clash is undoubtedly in favour of the yellow submarine from Villarreal. Emery’s team has a clear advantage in terms of form and can look back on a very satisfactory start to the season. His former club, on the other hand, has not even come close to fulfilling expectations, which is why the odds between Villarreal and Sevilla are so high for the visitors.

Despite the form advantage, there is no value to be found in betting on Villarreal to win. The home advantage is currently non-existent for the yellow sub due to the reconstruction works in their own stadium. A value bet is the forecast between Villarreal and Sevilla in DNB 2. The direct comparison favours the Andalusians, who are basically on a similar level in terms of quality. Betting odds of over 3.00 for this bet are definitely set too high, but a risk cannot be dismissed out of hand. Due to the strong defence of the yellow submarine, the main tip between Villarreal and Sevilla is recommended to be “Under 2.5”.