How will Villarreal react to their Champions League exit?
A sensation was briefly in the air at the Estadio de la Cerámica on Tuesday night as Villarreal led Liverpool 2-0 at the break in the Champions League semi-final, levelling the score from the first leg. But then the home side lost 3-2 and were eliminated. After this disillusionment, the switch must now be flipped again in league action.
Sevilla, who are currently third in the table, will be visiting the Spanish east coast. The Andalusians are six points clear of fifth place and realistically only need two wins from their last four league games to qualify for the top flight. However, in the run-up to the clash between Villarreal and Sevilla, the odds are swinging in favour of the home side.
It is true that Villarreal have won seven of their last ten home games in La Liga (three draws) and are very difficult to beat at home in the Estadio de la Cerámica. The visitors from Andalusia, on the other hand, have lost just two of their last 20 league games and will be travelling with a correspondingly high level of ambition.
In a match that is difficult to predict, it makes the most sense in our eyes to bet on under 2.5 goals for Villarreal against Sevilla.
Villarreal – Statistics & current form
Villarreal Club de Fútbol enjoyed a stellar campaign just last summer when the Submarí Groget (the Yellow Submarine) secured overall victory in the Europa League.
Seventh in the final table of La Liga, Unai Emery’s men thus snatched a back-door ticket to the Champions League, where the Spanish east coast outfit quickly emerged as favourites to win the competition.
Unbeaten in ten home La Liga games
After the Subarí Groget eliminated Juventus Turin and FC Bayern, however, the end of the line was against Liverpool in the semifinals during the week. Consequently, it is now a matter of setting the course for another year in Europe for the selection from the Valencian Community in La Liga.
With four games to go, the Europa League and Conference League are still well within their reach. For that, however, the East Spaniards need a continuation of their home streak. Emery’s side are now unbeaten at home for ten league games in a row (seven wins, three draws)
Averaging less than one goal conceded per league game
The highlight of the team from the province of Castellón is its defence, which has conceded just 33 goals in 34 league games – an average of less than one goal per league match.
It is therefore reasonable to bet on a low-scoring match between Villarreal and Sevilla. At their home Estadio de la Cerámica, Submarí Groget has only conceded 15 goals in 17 league games. Only Real Sociedad (seven) and Real Madrid (13) have been harder to break down in their own stadium.
Predicted line-up of Villarreal:
Rulli – Estupinán – Torres – Albiol – Foyth – Coquelin – Capoue – Parejo – Lo Celso – Dia – Moreno
Last matches played by Villarreal:
Champions League Final
04/05/2022 – Villarreal FC 2 – 3 Liverpool FC
La Liga
30/04/2022 – Deportivo Alaves 2 – 1 FC Villarreal
Champions League Final
28/04/2022 – Liverpool FC 2 – 0 Villarreal FC
La Liga
20/04/2022 – Villarreal FC 2 – 0 Valencia
17/04/2022 – Getafe 1 – 2 FC Villarreal
Sevilla – Statistics & current form
Sevilla Fútbol Club finished the 2020/21 season in fourth place and were once again allowed to compete in the Champions League. As is often the case, however, the Rojiblancos failed to progress beyond the preliminary round in the group stage and were relegated to the Europa League, in which the Andalusians are the record winners with six titles.
This year, however, no further trophy will be added, as the Nervionenses were eliminated in their showpiece competition in the round of 16 against West Ham United. All that remains for Julen Lopetegui’s men is to get another top-four finish and try again next season.
Six points clear of fifth place
At the same time, the Andalusians, who were the only team other than Real Madrid to finish top of the La Liga table for a single matchday in the entire 2021/22 season, are still on a good course.
Sevilla had already bowed out of the battle for the championship several weeks ago. However, the third-placed team still has a comfortable six-point lead over the fifth-placed team, despite the fact that the Nervionenses have only won two of their last eight league games (three draws, two defeats).
Only two defeats in the last 20 league games
Overall, however, the two defeats in April against Barcelona (0:1) and Real Madrid (2:3) were the only two defeats among the Rojiblancos’ last 20 league games. Consequently, it is a little surprising that the Andalusians come to the east coast as underdogs.
Betting on a low-scoring match, however, is all the more appropriate for this game. After all, Sevilla have the best defence in La Liga and have conceded just 28 goals in 34 league games.
Predicted Sevilla line-up:
Bono – Acuna – Carlos – Koundé – Navas – Rakitic – Jordán – Ocampos – Gómez – Lamela – En-Nesyri
Last matches played by Sevilla:
La Liga
30/04/2022 – Sevilla FC 1 – 1 Cadiz
21/04/2022 – Levante 2 – 3 Sevilla FC
18/04/2022 – Sevilla FC 2 – 3 Real Madrid
09/04/2022 – Sevilla FC 4 – 2 Granada
04/04/2022 – FC Barcelona 1 – 0 Sevilla FC
Villarreal – Sevilla Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 13 – 14 – 24
There have been a total of 51 meetings between the two teams so far and the Rojiblancos lead the head-to-head comparison with 24 wins. However, in their last away game at the Estadio de la Cerámica so far, the Andalusians suffered a nasty surprise when a 4-0 away defeat was on record on 16 May 2021.
Villarreal – Sevilla Tip
The prediction for Villarreal against Sevilla goes slightly in the direction of the visitors. However, it must be taken into account that both teams, whose showpiece is clearly their defence, are difficult to beat. The Submarí Groget is unbeaten for ten home games, while the guests from Andalusia have only lost two of their last 20 league games. This match is likely to be correspondingly tight.
With both teams conceding an average of less than one goal per league game, betting on a low-scoring game with a maximum of two goals offers a lot of value.
