Will the Yellow Submarine beat the Blancos again?
The Copa del Rey round of 16 clash between Villarreal and Real Madrid is a highly intriguing one, with betting on the outcome of the match anything but easy. Of course, the Blancos are in a much better position in La Liga than the East Spaniards. However, Villarreal only just beat the Royals 2-1 on 7 January 2023 in league action at their home Estadio de la Cerámica.
For the Merengues, the away trip to Spain’s east coast is also about taking revenge for the league defeat. However, Real will travel without momentum. The capitals are winless in three consecutive league games (one draw, two defeats) and only lost 3-1 to FC Barcelona in the final of the Supercopa de Espana on Sunday. The forecast for Villarreal against Real Madrid in the round of 16 of the Copa del Rey is therefore unclear.
It is very interesting to bet on a win for the home side or to bet on a double chance or draw-no-bet that the Yellow Submarine will force extra time with at least a draw. After all, Villarreal are unbeaten in three meetings against Real Madrid (one win, two draws) and have a run of seven consecutive games without defeat (six wins, one draw).
Considering that two of the last three meetings between the two defensively very strong clubs ended in a goalless draw, we see a little more value in betting that a maximum of two goals will be scored in regulation time.
Villarreal – Statistics & current form
Villarreal Club de Fútbol just celebrated the biggest success in the club’s history in the summer of 2021, when the Yellow Submarine (Spanish: “El submarino amarillo”) secured the overall victory in the UEFA Europa League. As a result, the East Spaniards also entered the Champions League, in which the journey went all the way to the semi-finals last spring.
At the same time, however, the team from the province of Castellón only finished seventh in La Liga. As a result, Villarreal were only allowed to take part in the Conference League, in which Quique Setién’s troops will be seeded after winning their group in the round of 16 in February.
Unbeaten in seven straight competitive matches
In La Liga, meanwhile, Villarreal are back in fifth place in the table after a brief period of weakness at the start of the season. The yellow submarine can therefore dream of a return to the Champions League, for which the most recent series was also responsible.
The players from the Spanish east coast have not lost in seven matches (six wins, one draw). In addition to the respectable 2-1 home win against Real Madrid in league play, the Setién team also managed a 2-1 home win in the derby against Valencia CF on New Year’s Eve.
16 points out of a possible 21 scored in their own stadium
Now the club, who have never been in a Copa del Rey final before in their history, let alone won the Spanish Cup before, will be looking to remain unbeaten for the eighth game in a row and give the beleaguered Blancos the next snip.
The oddsmakers see potential for this in their odds, although the betting odds on Villarreal against Real Madrid tend to favour the visitors from the capital. However, the home record of the East Spaniards speaks a different language. In La Liga, the Yellow Submarine have picked up 16 of a possible 21 points at home, while they have also not lost to Real Madrid for six home games (one win, five draws).
Predicted Villarreal line-up:
Reina – A. Moreno – Torres – Albiol – Foyth – Baena – Parejo – Coquelin – Pino – Chukwueze – G. Moreno
Last matches played by Villarreal:
La Liga
14/01/2023 – Celta Vigo 1 – 1 FC Villarreal
07/01/2023 – Villarreal FC 2 – 1 Real Madrid
Copa del Rey
04/01/2023 – Cartagena 1 – 5 FC Villarreal
La Liga
31/12/2022 – Villarreal FC 2 – 1 Valencia
Copa del Rey
21/12/2022 – Guijuelo 1 – 2 Villarreal FC
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Real Madrid are not only the most successful team in Spain, but also the most successful club in the world in terms of titles, having won a total of 99 competitions. Just last season, the Blancos not only won the national championship for the 35th time, but also recorded title number 14 in the Champions League.
For a long time, the white ballet marched ahead of the competition in the 2022/23 season and already looked like the new champions after winning the Clásico against the Blaugrana (3:1 on 16 October 2022). Then, however, there was a slump for the Merengues in the last few competitive games.
None of the last three competitive games won
Even before the World Cup break, the Merengues surprisingly dropped points against Girona (1:1) and Rayo Vallecano (2:3) in league play. Because they now also lost the away match at Villarreal (1:2) after the re-start, Real Madrid are now only in second place, three points behind first place.
Instead of using the Supercopa de Espana in Saudi Arabia to win a major title and boost their self-confidence, the Blancos were unable to overcome a 1-1 draw with Valencia before losing the final 3-1 on penalties to FC Barcelona. That makes it three consecutive competitive games without a win for the capital (one draw, two defeats).
Winless in six away games at Villarreal
Accordingly, Carlo Ancelotti’s side travel to the Spanish east coast again just two days after returning from Saudi Arabia, where they have not won at the Estadio de la Cerámica for six away games in La Liga (five draws, one defeat).
Consequently, the Merengues’ chances of reaching the Copa del Rey quarter-finals against Real Madrid are not in the best of hands, especially as the royals have not won the Spanish Cup since the 2013/14 season and have not progressed beyond the quarter-finals in any of the last three years.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois – Mendy – Rudiger – Militao – Carvajal – Kroos – Camavinga – Modric – Júnior – Valverde – Bezema
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
Super Cup
16/01/2023 – Real Madrid 1 – 3 FC Barcelona
12/01/2023 – Real Madrid (4)1 – 1(3) Valencia
La Liga
07/01/2023 – Villarreal FC 2 – 1 Real Madrid
Copa del Rey
04/01/2023 – Cacereno 0 – 1 Real Madrid
La Liga
31/12/2022 – Real Valladolid 0 – 2 Real Madrid
Villarreal – Real Madrid Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 5 – 16 – 26
There have been a total of 47 meetings between the two teams and with 26 victories, more than half of all duels have gone to Real Madrid. However, the Blancos are currently winless against the Yellow Submarine in three competitive matches (two draws, one defeat) and have also failed to win in six visits to the Estadio de la Cerámica (five draws, one defeat).
Villarreal – Real Madrid Tip
Although the Royals are pretty much always favourites at national level, there’s not too much to suggest that Villarreal vs Real Madrid is a good prediction for the Blancos to progress. After all, the Yellow Submarine just defeated the Madrilenians 2-1 in La Liga on 7 January 2023 and are currently unbeaten in seven consecutive competitive matches (six wins, one draw), while the Merengues, on the other hand, have failed to win any of their last three competitive matches (one draw, two losses).
Betting on the East Spaniards is nevertheless only playable with hedging, as the draw tendency is not exactly negligible.
