Will Real decide the match in the second half?

If you had to characterise a top European team, many attributes would certainly be mentioned that apply one-to-one to Real Madrid. No wonder, after all, they are the reigning Champions League winners and thus officially the best club team in Europe. But what is the most impressive strength that makes the royals so successful? The coming lines and paragraphs provide a subjective answer.

Broadly speaking, however, our aim is to provide a suitable tip for the upcoming clash between Villarreal and Real Madrid. It is important to bear in mind that the home side are playing their second game at their “new” home stadium and have rarely lost to their upcoming opponents from the Spanish capital in the recent past, especially at home.

The fact that bookmakers are still offering lower odds on an away win between Villarreal and Real Madrid is, of course, due to the general strength of the squad and the situation in the standings. Coach Carlo Ancelotti’s team is level on points with FC Barcelona at the top of the table, while the yellow submarine currently has to settle for seventh place. However, the trend is pointing upwards.

Villarreal – statistics & current form

It certainly came as a shock to Villarreal at the end of October that star coach Unai Emery answered the lure from Birmingham and moved to Aston Villa in the Premier League despite having a contract with the yellow submarine. Although a renowned successor was quickly found in former Barca coach Quique Setien, it took until the fifth match before last year’s CL semi-finalists could land their first win under the new coach.

Since then, however, things have been going very well for the club from the east of Spain. They have won all five of their most recent matches in the competition. To be fair, however, three of the five Copa del Rey victories mentioned were against lower-tier opposition. Thanks to the two victories at Espanyol Barcelona (1-0) before the World Cup break and at home against Valencia (2-1) shortly before the turn of the year, however, the starting position in La Liga has improved as well.

Villarreal score primarily in the second half

Seventh in the table, the yellow submarine, as the club likes to be called because of its yellow jerseys, is only three points short of a direct Champions League spot. The trend is upwards, because at least Villarreal can count on a real home advantage again in the future.

After the first home games had to be played in exile in Valencia due to a stadium renovation, the last league match to date against Valencia saw a ceremonial comeback in El Madrigal. Fittingly, the Setien team prevailed 2-1.

Looking at the statistics, there are two striking features. On the one hand, Villarreal once again have a very stable defence in 2022/23, even conceding the second fewest goals of any club in La Liga (eleven) behind Barcelona (six).

On the other hand, the offensive only seems to get going as the game progresses. 13 of the total of only 17 goals scored came after the break. We therefore focus on the odds for more goals in the 2nd half in the top match Villarreal vs. Real Madrid. Under bets are also worth considering given the surprisingly high quotes (2.30 for the Under 2.5).

Predicted Villarreal line-up:
Reina; Femenia, Foyth, P Torres, Moreno; Capoue, Parejo; Chukwueze, Baena, Pino; Danjuma

Last matches played by Villarreal:

Copa del Rey
04/01/2023 – Cartagena 1 – 5 FC Villarreal

La Liga
31/12/2022 – Villarreal FC 2 – 1 Valencia

Copa del Rey
21/12/2022 – Guijuelo 1 – 2 Villarreal FC

Friendly club matches
18/12/2022 – SSC Napoli 2 – 3 Villarreal FC

16/12/2022 – Aston Villa 0 – 1 Villarreal FC

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

Now back to our initial question: what makes Real Madrid particularly strong? In our eyes, it is the ability to be right there on the dot and play results football par excellence. In recent years, there have been enough examples that have impressively demonstrated this almost unique ability. The Madrilenians were by no means always the better team, were rarely convincing with glamorous football and yet are the most successful club of the past decade.

In the current season, it has already become clear that especially the close matches usually tilt in favour of the Galactics. Only three of their twelve La Liga victories this season have come by more than two goals, and many of their wins have come by exactly one goal. Thibaut Cortois rarely played to nil.

Real’s strength after the break

Even more interesting, however, are the statistics relating to attacking output, as no other team in the Spanish top flight has scored more goals after the break than the Royals. In 15 second halves, Real scored 19 times. This was also the case in the two most recent Copa del Rey victories at CP Cacereno (1:0) or in the 2:0 at Real Valladolid. All goals were scored from minute 69 upwards.

We therefore expect a patient Ancelotti side on Saturday afternoon, who with the necessary experience and individual quality will definitely be able to turn the match in their own direction in the second half.

Accordingly, we would not be surprised if the Madrilenians ultimately get the upper hand. It would therefore be conceivable to make a prediction on the away win between Villarreal and Real Madrid or to play the double HTX/FT2 result with even more risk

Personnel-wise, there are still one or two question marks behind Courtois, Carvajal or Diaz. Otherwise, coach Ancelotti can draw on a wide range of options.

Predicted line-up of Real Madrid:
Courtois; Vazquez, Militao, Alaba, Mendy; Modric, Tchouameni, Kroos; Valverde, Benzema, Vinicius

Last matches played by Real Madrid:

Copa del Rey
04/01/2023 – Cacereno 0 – 1 Real Madrid

La Liga
31/12/2022 – Real Valladolid 0 – 2 Real Madrid

11/11/2022 – Real Madrid 2 – 1 Cadiz

08/11/2022 – Rayo Vallecano 3 – 2 Real Madrid

Champions League Grp. F
03/11/2022 – Real Madrid 5 – 1 Celtic Glasgow

Villarreal – Real Madrid Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

44 Matches there have been between these clubs in the top Spanish football league. Only four times Villarreal were able to prevail. Real Madrid have had the upper hand on 24 occasions, while 16 draws round off the tally.

It is all the more surprising, then, that the Royals have found it very difficult against the yellow submarine in the recent past. The reigning champions have only won three of their last ten league games against their upcoming opponents. The last away win for the Madrilenians came at El Madrigal in 2017. The five subsequent home games between Villarreal and Real Madrid have all ended in draws.

Villarreal – Real Madrid betting tips

With the success just before the turn of the year and FC Barcelona’s loss of points, Real Madrid have drawn level with their arch-rivals in the table. They would like to take over the top spot in the first league match of the new year. Such a scenario does not seem out of the question, as Barca have to play Atletico Madrid on Sunday.

The Champions League triumphants from the previous season, however, also have a tough challenge ahead of them. At the refurbished Estadio de la Cerámica, the Galacticos face the current seventh-placed team in the table, who won their only competitive match in the new stadium 2-1 against Valencia around a week ago and also have five consecutive wins in the competition.

It is therefore not our preferred approach to place a bet on the three-way market between Villarreal and Real Madrid. A more exciting bet is that there will be more goals in the second half than in the first. The yellow submarine scored 13 of its total 17 goals of the season after the change of ends; Real is even the team with the most goals in second periods.