Do the yellow submarine underpin their CL ambitions?
In the Spanish top flight, the matchday is traditionally concluded with an evening match on Monday. This weekend, the last first-round matchday was on the agenda, with two teams facing each other in the converted Estadio La Ceramica who can be very satisfied with the way the season has gone so far. Kick-off is at 20:45 and odds of 1.70 are being offered on Villarreal to win at home against Rayo Vallecano.
Last season’s CL semi-finalists struggled slightly at the start of the season, but have been extremely consistent and successful in recent weeks.
It won’t be a walk in the park against Spanish side St. Pauli on Monday evening, however, as the red and whites from the Madrid suburbs haven’t lost an away game since the beginning of October. Nevertheless, our top tips between Villarreal and Rayo Vallecano include predictions in the direction of the home side.
Under Quique Setien, the yellow submarine is once again increasingly reminiscent of the team that enchanted many neutral fans with extreme ball security and high-quality technical play. A home win could underpin the team’s ambitions to return to the CL. However, if Rayo do indeed land an away win at Villarreal, the visitors would move to within two points of Villarreal.
Villarreal – Statistics & current form
The shock ran deep when Unai Emery exercised his exit clause and opted to rejoin Aston Villa on the island. Many supporters were not happy with Quique Setien as his successor at Villarreal and in the first days/weeks these critics were proved right. But the tide has since turned and the long World Cup break came in handy for the yellow submarine.
13 points from five games
After 13 competitive games, Setien’s average of 1.77 points per game is impressive. Only four games were lost, seven of which Villarreal won. Especially in the league, things have been going well lately. In the last five league games, they have collected 13 out of a possible 15 points. Only in the away match against Celta Vigo did the team have to settle for a 1-1 draw. On the other hand, Real Madrid were beaten in the league, and in the Copa del Rey, despite leading 2:0, they lost 3:2.
However, the Setien eleven was able to digest this shock well and with a great show of will they forced a victory against Girona last weekend. Villarreal struggled against the defensive bulwark for a long time and failed to score a penalty at the beginning of injury time. A few minutes later, Pau Torres was brought down again and Dani Parejo secured the narrow 1-0 victory in the 100th minute.
The yellow submarine normally has a lot of possession, an outstanding passing rate and thus a clear visual superiority. However, the team is also very patient and rarely fires off an offensive spectacle. On average, only 1.89 goals are scored in games involving Villarreal this season (second lowest).
The Under 2.5 (twelve out of 18) or ‘Both teams scoring? No’ (13 out of 18 games) are interesting betting options. The bookmakers are offering very interesting odds on these picks despite these statistics between Villarreal and Rayo Vallecano.
Predicted line-up of Villarreal:
Reina – Alberto Moreno, Torres, Cuenca, Foyth – Baena, Parejo, Capoue – Yeremi Pino, Gerard Moreno, Chukwueze
Last matches played by Villarreal:
La Liga
22/01/2023 – Villarreal FC 1 – 0 Girona
Copa del Rey
20/01/2023 – Villarreal FC 2 – 3 Real Madrid
La Liga
14/01/2023 – Celta Vigo 1 – 1 FC Villarreal
07/01/2023 – Villarreal FC 2 – 1 Real Madrid
Copa del Rey
04/01/2023 – Cartagena 1 – 5 Villarreal FC
Rayo Vallecano – Statistics & current form
In fact, head coach Andoni Iraola has once again managed to turn things around and is now firmly back in the saddle. As a promoted team, Rayo Vallecano were particularly strong in the first half of last season and laid the foundations for staying in the league.
After 18 matchdays, Rayo even had four points more on their side than this season. The spring was disastrous and only twelve points were collected in the second half of the season. Iraola continued to be trusted and in the autumn the form curve showed a clear upward trend again.
Already the same number of away wins as last year
In addition to the very strong autumn, the results at home in the Campo de Futbol de Vallecas were the second reason for the promoted team to stay in the league. On the other hand, Rayo Vallecano were often a welcome guest away from home, only three of the 19 guest appearances ended victoriously. In the first half of the 2022/23 season, Rayo have already reached this figure and have a completely balanced 3-3-3 away record with a goal difference of 11:11. Especially in the last weeks and months, away matches were always linked with a point win.
On 8 October, a 3-1 defeat at promoted Almeria was followed by seven league games without another defeat. At the start of the new calendar year 2023, however, things did not go according to plan for Iraola’s team. They lost at home against Betis Sevilla and Real Sociedad de San Sebastian, while their only success came at Real Valladolid. In addition, the team was defeated by Sporting Gijon in the Copa del Rey.
The away statistics give hope for a surprise, but the current form with three defeats from four games against the very strong and consistent results of the home side speaks against it again. The quality of the hosts is also at least one notch higher, which is why we refrain from betting on the visitors in Villarreal against Rayo Vallecano.
Predicted line-up of Rayo Vallecano:
Dimitrievski – Catena, Lejeune, Garcia, Balliu – Ciss, Lopez, Trejo – Garcia, Camello, Palazon
Last matches played by Rayo Vallecano:
La Liga
21/01/2023 – Rayo Vallecano 0 – 2 Real Sociedad
14/01/2023 – Real Valladolid 0 – 1 Rayo Vallecano
08/01/2023 – Rayo Vallecano 1 – 2 Real Betis
Copa del Rey
04/01/2023 – Sporting Gijon 2 – 0 Rayo Vallecano
La Liga
29/12/2022 – Girona 2 – 2 Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal – Rayo Vallecano Direct comparison / H2H record
Very clear reads the direct comparison between the two teams, especially when the yellow sub enjoys home advantage. The away games in Villarreal have rarely been fruitful for the team from the Madrid suburb.
Out of nine LaLiga matches and four games in the Spanish King’s Cup, Rayo Vallecano could only win one away match (matchday 1 of the 2000/01 season). Otherwise, there were nine wins and three draws for the home side. The yellow submarine has also won each of the last three league encounters. Between Villarreal and Rayo Vallecano, the home win tip is obvious according to these statistics.
Villarreal – Rayo Vallecano bet
Although the visitors from Madrid have been convincing with strong results away from home in recent weeks, only a full success counts for the hosts in the battle for the top division. The role of favourites in favour of the home side is also fully justified to this extent. Bet3000 offers 1.75 for a home win, which is even higher than expected. Value is to be found between Villarreal and Rayo Vallecano on this tip.
The yellow submarine is in very strong shape and can especially count on a very strong defence. The team has only conceded 13 goals so far and thus has the second-best defence in the Spanish LaLiga.
In addition, six of the nine wins this season have come without conceding a goal. All this makes the prediction on a home win without conceding a goal between Villarreal and Rayo Vallecano very interesting. Especially since odds of up to 2.65 are offered for this bet. Four units are sent into the race as a wager.
