Will Plzen prevail in the second leg?
Showdown in the last round of the Champions League qualification. A total of six teams are still fighting for one of the lucrative places in the group stage of this year’s top division. The Czech champions from Pilsen also want to get into one of the coveted lottery pots.
The big unknown among all the illustrious names in European football is Qarabag Agdam. The champions from Azerbaijan are certainly the big surprise in the last qualifying round, having already eliminated the national champions from Poland, Switzerland and Hungary in the previous rounds with Poznan, Zurich and Budapest. In the first leg, the record champions from Azerbaijan also caused the Bilek team some problems. Nevertheless, the 0:0 from the first leg is a good starting position for the Czechs.
But so far Pilsen have failed to win any of their four encounters against Agdam, with all four ending in a draw. Nevertheless, the Czechs are favourites as expected due to their own home strength.
Viktoria Pilsen – Statistics & current form
Last season began with a disappointment at European level for the beer capital of Europe. Early on, they were defeated by ZSKA Sofia in the final qualifying round of the newly created Europa Conference League. What followed was an outstanding season at national level, which ended with the sixth Czech championship title. They are now in the qualifying round for the European top flight. Viktoria Pilsen overcame the first two hurdles of qualification against opponents like Helsinki and Tiraspol. After a 0-0 draw in the first leg against Qarabag Agdam, Viktoria Pilsen can now look forward to their first group stage appearance in Europe’s elite division since 2018/19.
Home strength is trump
However, a tough task awaits Bilek’s side before they can possibly progress to the group stage of the top flight. In the first leg, Bilek had his team play more defensively in a 4-5-1 formation and largely let their Azerbaijani opponents have possession of the ball, which allowed them to score more goals than his team in the first leg. He achieved his interim goal of not losing the first leg against the home-strong record champions from Azerbaijan with the goalless draw. He is well aware that he can usually rely on his team’s home strength and that Agdam is quite vulnerable away from home. In the second leg, therefore, the Czechs can be expected to play a more offensive line-up. The bookmakers are also positive about Pilsen’s chances of advancing to the group stage. For Viktoria Pilsen against Qarabag Agdam, you can find odds under 1.50 for the Czechs to qualify.
Agdam have lost two of their three away qualifiers so far, against Poznan and in Zurich (in regulation time). Pilsen, on the other hand, took a total of 41 out of a possible 45 points in their own stadium in the championship main round last season. In the championship round they even won all their home games, the foundation for the title was laid. In the previous two qualifying rounds, Viktoria Pilsen also won both games against Helsinki and last year’s Champions League participant Sheriff Tiraspol and ended their unbeaten streak in Champions League qualifiers with the two wins against the Moldovans. In the league, they also won at home against Pardubice. Therefore, the forecast for Viktoria Pilsen against Qarabag Agdam is for a home win. Bilek will be missing Pejsa and Bassey next Tuesday.
Predicted line-up of Viktoria Pilsen:
Stanek, Havel, Pernica, Hejda, Sykora, Kopic, Bucha, Kalvach, Mosquera, Kliment, Chory
Last matches of Viktoria Pilsen:
Champions League Qualification
17/08/2022 – Qarabag FK 0 – 0 Viktoria Pilsen
1st League
13/08/2022 – FC Hradec Králové 1 – 2 Viktoria Pilsen
Champions League Qualification
09/08/2022 – Viktoria Pilsen 2 – 1 FC Sheriff
1st League
06/08/2022 – Viktoria Plzen 2 – 1 Pardubice
Champions League Qualification
02/08/2022 – FC Sheriff 1 – 2 Viktoria Pilsen
Qarabag Agdam – Statistics & current form
Together with Neftchi Baku, Qarabag Agdam regularly hold Azerbaijan’s national colours high in European club football. Agdam have only made it to the group stage of the European top flight once before – as the only Azerbaijani team so far – in the 2017/18 season. As expected, the tasks there were too difficult with Atlético Madrid, AS Roma and Chelsea FC. Last year, Qarabag was represented in the Conference League. The club sold itself quite dearly there, even if the group with Basel, Qairat Almaty and Omonia Nicosia was certainly not the most difficult. In the intermediate round, however, they were defeated by Olympique Marseille.
Will Qarabag Agdam go further?
Qarabag Agdam’s chances of progressing need not be relegated to the realm of fables, but the Czech champions in Pilsen are a tough act to follow for the record-breaking Azerbaijani champions. It is encouraging that in the previous round, also after a draw at home, Ferencvaros Budapest were eliminated away from home. The Czechs are very strong at home and hardly give anything away in their own stadium.
Qarabag also lost in Poznan and Zurich, although they did manage to equalise in injury time against the Swiss champions. Nevertheless, the tip for Viktoria Pilsen against Qarabag Agdam is a home win for the Czechs. In the end, the quality of the home team should prevail against the champions from Azerbaijan, who are much weaker away from home. Coach Qurbanov has no absentees to report for Tuesday.
Predicted line-up of Qarabag Agdam:
Mahammadaliyev, Bayramov, Guseynov, Mustafazada, Vesovic, Jankovic, Kady, Garayev, Wadji, Zoubir, Sheydaev
Last matches played by Qarabag Agdam:
Champions League Qualifier
17/08/2022 – Qarabag FK 0 – 0 Viktoria Plzen
Premier League
13/08/2022 – Sumqayit 0 – 2 Qarabag FK
Champions League Qualifier
10/08/2022 – Ferencvaros 1 – 3 Qarabag FK
Premier League
06/08/2022 – Qarabag FK 3 – 1 Sabail
Champions League Qualifier
03/08/2022 – Qarabag FK 1 – 1 Ferencvaros
Viktoria Plzen – Qarabag Agdam Direct comparison / H2H record
Four times the two teams have faced each other, four times they have drawn. In the third qualifying round for the Champions League in the 2016/17 season, Pilsen nevertheless progressed due to the away goals rule that was still in force at the time. They met again in a friendly in 2019, with the 0-0 draw in the first leg being the fourth consecutive draw between the two sides. Qarabag Agdam have only won once against an opponent from the Czech Republic, albeit in a test match. There have also been five draws and three defeats.
Viktoria Plzen – Qarabag Agdam Tip
The prediction for Viktoria Pilsen against Qarabag Agdam goes to a home win. Although Qarabag Agdam surprised in the previous round in Budapest, they lost two of their three away games in the qualifying for the top division. We see the record champions from Azerbaijan at a disadvantage against the extremely strong Czechs at home. The first win against Qarabag in the fifth direct comparison would come at the perfect time for the Czechs.
The goal difference after four head-to-head meetings between the two teams is 3-3, so there have never been any goal festivals when the two sides have met. But with the exception of the goalless draw in the first leg, Pilsen have scored more than two goals in all of their qualifying matches. The strong defence from the championship season is currently struggling, but the offensive is working all the better for it. The Czech champions have scored at least two goals in all other competitive matches this season.
Likewise, Qarabag Agdam scored more than two goals in two of their three away matches in qualifying. The starting position is also clear. As soon as one team scores, the other team has to take risks to avoid elimination. We therefore expect more goals in the second leg and tip Viktoria Pilsen against Qarabag Agdam to score more than 2.5 goals.
