Does the result reflect the match this time?
Although we are only in the first qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League, Vikingur Reykjavik are already facing their fourth competitive international fixture of the season. The Icelandic champions have already had to go through the pre-qualifying tournament before punching their ticket for the matches against the Swedish title holders from Malmö.
In the first leg at the Eleda Stadium, the underdogs from the Icelandic capital put in a carefree performance and lost only 2:3, so everything is still open before the return match next Tuesday. In view of the different squad strengths and the fact that the Swedes have much more experience on the European stage, the odds between Vikingur Reykjavik and Malmö are clearly in favour of the visitors.
Because the reigning champions in the Swedish Allsvenskan have not yet shown any consistency, it remains to be seen whether the underdogs can pull off the big surprise. In terms of the odds, you could even call it a sensation, as six times the stake is being paid out for a successful prediction on the Icelanders advancing before the game Vikingur Reykjavik vs Malmö.
Vikingur Reykjavik – Statistics & current form
For the first time in club history, Vikingur Reykjavik are currently fighting for a ticket to the group stage of the UEFA Champions League. The fact that the Black and Reds have made it this far at all is partly due to last season’s championship and partly to the pre-qualifying tournament they won a few weeks ago. Thanks to victories against Levadia Tallinn (6:1) and Club d’Escaldes from Andorra (1:0), the Icelandic capital club is even in this first qualifying round.
Against this backdrop, hardly anyone would have expected coach Arnar Gunnlaugsson’s team to play such a good away game in Sweden. Although the six-time Icelandic champions lost 3-2 in the end, last season’s double winners showed what they are capable of
Vikingur is in very good shape
The Black and Reds, who have never advanced beyond the first qualifying round on the European stage, are particularly dangerous offensively on a good day. This is also in line with impressions from the domestic league, where Vikingur have scored 28 goals in 12 games this season. With a record of eight wins, one draw and three defeats, it is still only enough for second place in the intermediate rankings.
In terms of form, however, Gunnlaugsson’s side are well on the way to closing the gap on leaders Breidablik. At national level, the last five matches have all been victorious. In four of those five matches, they even scored three goals of their own. Furthermore, in eleven of the twelve league matches involving the capital club, a bet on the over 2.5 would have gone through. The Icelandic top flight is not comparable to the Swedish first division, even at the top, but these statistics still serve as a veritable argument for betting on a goal or two in the course of the game between Vikingur Reykjavik and Malmö.
Predicted line-up of Vikingur Reykjavik:
Ingason; Gunnarsson, Sigurdsson, Ekroth, Tomasson; Punyed, Magnusson; Agnarsson, Gudjonsson, Andrason; Hansen
Last matches played by Vikingur Reykjavik:
Besta deildin
09/07/2022 – Vikingur Reykjavik 3 – 2 IA Akranes
Champions League Qualifier
05/07/2022 – Malmö FF 3 – 2 Vikingur Reykjavik
Besta deildin
02/07/2022 – KR Reykjavik 0 – 3 Vikingur Reykjavik
Cup
29/06/2022 – Selfoss 0 – 6 Vikingur Reykjavik
Champions League Qualification Preliminary Round
25/06/2022 – Inter Club d’Escaldes 0 – 1 Vikingur Reykjavik
Malmö – Statistics & current form
Compared to their opponents from Iceland, Malmö are an experienced bunch when it comes to qualifying matches for the top flight. Only last season, the Swedish flagship made it through the qualifiers and punched the ticket for the group stage, where they were mostly just a supplier of points against Juventus, Chelsea and Zenit St. Petersburg.
The Swedish record holders also have many plans for the current European Cup season. At the beginning, the aim is to maintain a series. The Light Blue and White have never failed in the first qualifying round of the most important club competition on this continent. The chances that 2022 will not be an inglorious premiere are pretty good, after all, the odds for the Icelandic underdog to advance between Vikingur Reykjavik and Malmö are 6.00 at the top.
At least internationally, will Malmö overcome their away weakness?
However, coach Milos Milojevic’s team should not take the task too lightly on Tuesday evening. On the one hand, because they had to concede two goals in the first leg and were not entirely convincing in their 3:2 home win. On the other hand, not everything is running smoothly on the national stage.
Last year’s champions are currently only fourth in the Allsvenskan and are already four points behind leaders Hammarby. Especially away from home, the former club of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Emil Forsberg or Martin Dahlin showed great weaknesses. Only two out of seven matches in the Swedish top flight were victorious. One win from the past six games away from home and four offensive zeros in this period are emblematic of the implied away weaknesses.
It is therefore a bit of a gamble to predict that Vikingur Reykjavik will win the second leg against Malmö, but the bottom line is that the Light Blue and White are clearly stronger in terms of quality and, with four wins from their last five competitive matches, are also on the up.
Predicted line-up of Malmö:
Dahlin; Nielsen, Hadzikadunic, Moisander; Berget, Christiansen, Pena, Larsson, Olsson; Toivonen, Birmancevic
Last matches played by Malmö:
Allsvenskan
09/07/2022 – Malmö FF 3 – 0 Varbergs BoIS FC
Champions League Qualification
05/07/2022 – Malmö FF 3 – 2 Vikingur Reykjavik
Allsvenskan
01/07/2022 – GIF Sundsvall 2 – 1 Malmö FF
27/06/2022 – Malmö FF 2 – 1 Helsingborg
Club friendlies
20/06/2022 – Malmö FF 2 – 0 Trelleborgs FF
Vikingur Reykjavik – Malmö Direct comparison / H2H record
The first leg a week ago was the first and so far only meeting of these two clubs at European level. Malmö prevailed 3-2, but were annoyed at the final whistle when the Icelanders scored a goal in the third minute of stoppage time. Otherwise, Milojevic’s side were in control throughout the game, firing 26 shots towards the opposition’s goal. Iceland’s only two shots on goal ultimately led to the goals conceded.
Vikingur Reykjavik – Malmö Tip
Sometimes it makes more sense to look at the statistics of a match and leave the final result aside for the moment. If we look at the data from the first leg between the Icelandic and Swedish champions, it becomes clear that the result after 90 minutes belies the actual course of the game. Malmö had more than 20 shots on goal, had almost 70% of the ball and conceded the second goal in the 3:2 win in injury time.
This is one of the reasons why we believe that the betting odds on an away win in the second leg between Vikingur Reykjavik and Malmö on Tuesday night hold the most promising value. The home side must play to win, but are clearly weaker in terms of quality. The light blue and white guests, however, have a wealth of experience in such qualifying matches and will know how to exploit the smallest mistakes made by the Icelanders.
For the less risk-averse sports fans, the best bet between Vikingur Reykjavik and Malmö is an away win with no further frills.
