The clock is back to zero

For most German professional clubs, the 2022/23 season is over. However, some may or must still be in detention. Four teams will play the first and second legs of the relegation play-off in the next few days. On Thursday, the first duel will take place between the third-last team in the Bundesliga and the third team from the Unterhaus. At first glance, the tip in the duel between VfB Stuttgart and HSV goes to a victory for the Swabians, not only in this first encounter.

However, it starts at 0:0. All the clocks are set to zero. It’s a matter of 180 minutes in which the utmost concentration is once again required. Mentally, this relegation is always more of a burden for the first division team, as they have not usually had a good season and have had to withstand many weeks of pressure in the relegation battle. If a team has something to lose in these two games, it tends to be the Swabians.

But we can’t talk about a psychological advantage for Hamburger SV this time, because for a good ten minutes last Sunday, the Hanseatics thought they had already reached the goal of their dreams, before they were abruptly snapped out of it.

24 times there have been relegations between the Bundesliga and the second division to date and statistically speaking, the team from the top flight has prevailed 75 per cent of the time. 18 times the first division team also remained first class. However, VfB Stuttgart, of all clubs from the Bundesliga, lost to second-division side Union Berlin in 2019. So VfB will not go into this game completely clueless and free of negative memories any more than Hamburger SV, who lost out to Hertha BSC last season.

VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form

Sebastian Hoeneß is the great hope at VfB Stuttgart. Even if it feels strange to drop to 16th place on the last matchday, the Swabians have performed very well under the direction of their new coach. When he took over, the primary goal was to stay in the league via relegation. Weeks later, however, they would have liked to have been spared this game of vabanque.

Upswing under Hoeneß

After all, under Hoeneß there was only one defeat in eight games in the Bundesliga. The only other defeat was in the cup semi-final against Eintracht Frankfurt. Most recently, VfB remained unbeaten three times in a row, but they have not won at home in the last three competitive games. At least this does not suggest that the odds on an away win between VfB Stuttgart and HSV should now be taken into account.

VfB are playing in the relegation for the second time but do not have good memories of it, despite two draws. In 2019, they drew 2-2 at home against Union Berlin, and the return match at the Alte Försterei also ended in a draw. However, because it remained goalless, the Swabians were relegated to the second division due to the fewer away goals scored. In the meantime, however, this rule has been abolished both in the European Cup and in the relegation.

The Stuttgart team would have loved to avoid the two deciding games and had everything in their own hands. Last Saturday, a derby win against TSG Hoffenheim would have been enough on the last matchday. However, it was clear early on after the 0:1 deficit that this would be difficult. Tiago Tomas’ 1:1 secured a point in the end, but had no bearing on the standings.

HSV – Statistics & current form

Once Hamburger SV was the dinosaur of the Bundesliga. Now it is the club with the most relegation matches in Germany. The balance so far is still positive. As a Bundesliga team, they beat Greuther Fürth and KSC; last year, as a second-division team, they were defeated by Hertha BSC. Now it’s time for the fourth round, where the Hamburg team will be looking to defy the poor record of the teams from the lower league.

Strong season record of HSV

The Rothosen have won their last three second division games, but have covered themselves with little glory, struggling to two lucky victories against Fürth and Sandhausen in particular. The Hanseatic League has the best attack in the 2nd Bundesliga. The problem is the many goals they concede. That’s why you can venture a prediction between VfB Stuttgart and HSV that more than 2.5 goals will be scored or that both teams will score.

Overall, however, it remains to be said that Tim Walter’s team has no reason not to be confident in its abilities. Hamburg are the best away team in the 2nd Bundesliga and have been unbeaten at home in the Volkspark for ten games. All in all, that sounds like the ingredients to be able to prevail even against a Bundesliga team in the relegation.

Last Sunday could not have been more bitter for Hamburg. The game in Sandhausen started promisingly. Jean-Luc Dompe gave his team the lead after only three minutes. After that, nothing happened at the Hardtwald and Hamburg thought they were promoted for a few minutes after the final whistle, before Heidenheim managed to turn the game around in 14 minutes of injury time in Regensburg and are even promoted to the Bundesliga as champions for their part.

VfB Stuttgart – HSV Direct comparison / H2H-Balance

In total, VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV have crossed paths in 118 duels. Most of these matches have taken place in the Bundesliga, but there are also games in the DFB Cup, in the second division and in test matches, as well as, in the distant past, encounters in the knockout matches for the German championship. In the direct comparison, the Swabians have a razor-thin lead with 48:46 wins and 24 draws.

Tim Walter was still on Stuttgart’s bench in two of the last three competitive matches between these two clubs in the 2019/20 season, picking up a win in the DFB-Pokal after extra time and conceding a 2:6 defeat at Volkspark. The last meeting was VfB’s 3-2 win in May 2020, when HSV were 2-0 up in Stuttgart after goals from Joel Pohjanpalo and Aaron Hunt before Wataru Endo, Nicolas Gonzalez and Gonzalo Castro turned the game in the Swabians’ favour.

VfB Stuttgart – HSV Tip

We think this pairing will only be decided in the second leg. Nevertheless, this first match in Stuttgart is of course already extremely important. The aim will be to gain an advantage for Monday’s match at Volkspark and we think that the hosts from Ländle have the slightly better cards, simply because VfB have more quality in their squad and can call on it under Sebastian Hoeneß.

After all, there has only been one defeat in the last eight Bundesliga games. In terms of tension, however, the relegation cannot be compared to an actual match. Hamburger SV are also going into this match with good statistics. They are the best third-placed team of all time in the single-division 2nd Bundesliga, the team with the most goals and the best away team.

The Swabians have not won their last three home games, but they are also unbeaten for three games. We expect it to be a very tight affair on Thursday, but see the hosts slightly ahead in this first leg. That is why we have decided to play the odds on a home win between VfB Stuttgart and HSV