Will there be the next goal spectacle?
In the Friday evening match of the highest German division, VfB receives BVB in a real traditional duel. It will be the 114th meeting between the teams. The home side, who start the match as underdogs, have not lost in four games. In contrast, Borussia suffered a heavy defeat at home last weekend.
This aspect and the fact that the Swabians need every point in their relegation battle makes betting on a point win for the hosts between VfB Stuttgart and Dortmund shine in an attractive light. The time would definitely be ripe for that, after all, VfB’s last point win against BVB in front of their own crowd dates back to 2017.
The opening duel of the 29th matchday of the Bundesliga could be extremely rich in goals. VfB score an average of 3.8 goals at home and 3.4 in BVB’s visiting matches, so a recommendation for goals between VfB Stuttgart and Dortmund is promising. The prediction that at least four goals will be scored brings attractive odds of around 2.40 on the betting slip.
VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form
After a very solid first season after re-promotion, the five-time German champions slipped towards the bottom of the table relatively quickly this season. Since matchday 9, Pellegrino Matarazzo’s team has been oscillating between 13th & 17th place in the table. Thanks to a strong eight points from the last four games, the Baden-Württemberger have made the leap away from the relegation places.
Goals are the order of the day
The home record of the White and Reds even improved a little compared to the previous season. With five wins and three draws, the team kept something tangible in the “Ländle” in 57% of the games. Thanks to an average of 1.29 points, the team leaves teams like Frankfurt and Wolfsburg behind in this statistic.
The goal average already mentioned suggests that matches in the Mercedes-Benz Arena regularly degenerate into goal spectacles. Ten times a match ended with at least three goals and nine times with at least four goals. Eleven of the 14 home matches ended with goals on both sides. Moreover, in the last eight games in a row, both Stuttgart and their respective opponents scored. The last two home games ended 3:2.
It can be assumed that the coaching team will also rely on offensive power against BVB. With the well-rehearsed 4-4-3 formation, the team has recently gone four games without defeat. VfB will have to do without centre-back Anton, who is serving a yellow ban. At least there are no further absences to report compared to the guest game in Bielefeld.
Projected line-up of VfB Stuttgart:
Müller – Ito, Mavropanos, Sosa, Stenzel – Karazor, Endo, Führich – Marmoush, Tomás, Kalajdzic
Last matches played by VfB Stuttgart:
Bundesliga
04/02 2022 – Arminia Bielefeld 1 – 1 VfB Stuttgart
03/19 2022 – VfB Stuttgart 3 – 2 Augsburg
03/12 2022 – Union Berlin 1 – 1 VfB Stuttgart
03/05 2022 – VfB Stuttgart 3 – 2 Gladbach
02/25 2022 – Hoffenheim 2 – 1 VfB Stuttgart
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Throughout the year, the Westphalians’ lack of consistency has been the defining issue. This has ensured that Dortmund have hardly ever been able to put FC Bayern under pressure in the standings this season. However, they have shown consistency in terms of their position in the table, as Marco Rose’s team has been in second place without interruption since matchday eight.
Not always convincing away
The lack of consistency is also evident away from home, as BVB lags behind their own standards in this statistic with 24 points from 14 games. The 1.71 points that the team scores on average away from home are exactly the same as in the previous season. At least Dortmund was able to win half of all games played away from home. In the last three away games, however, BVB only scored the full points once.
Recently, however, the Borussians have been stingy with goals. In each of the last five games, they scored no more than one goal and at least kept the score level twice. However, the defeat against RB Leipzig proved that the defence is still a problem. The bookmakers are giving odds of 1.30 on the home side being able to overcome the BVB defence before the clash between VfB Stuttgart and Dortmund. This corresponds to a probability of 76%.
The Black and Yellows have only managed to finish six of their 28 league games without conceding a goal, and have only managed to do so twice away from home. After the three-man backline was overwhelmed against an offensively strong Leipzig, it is not unlikely that Dortmund will return to a formation with four defenders in Stuttgart. With Passlack and Schulz, however, the team is still missing two full-backs who have been getting a lot of playing time lately.
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Kobel – Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro, Wolf – Dahoud, Bellingham, Brandt – Malen, Reus, Haaland
Last matches played by Dortmund:
Bundesliga
04/02 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 4 RB Leipzig
03/20 2022 – 1. FC Köln 1 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
03/16 2022 – Mainz 05 0 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
03/13 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
02/27 2022 – Augsburg 1 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart – Dortmund Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
BVB have won five of the last seven encounters in this traditional duel since 2017. It is striking that each of these games without exception ended with at least three goals, whereby four times even more goals were scored. Both teams scored in five games.
In the current season, 68% of Stuttgart’s and 75% of Dortmund’s league games have ended with goals on both sides – including the 2-1 for BVB in the first leg. This statistic explains why the betting odds for the second leg between VfB Stuttgart and Dortmund settle around 1.50.
Marco Reus has scored four times in his last six games against the Swabians. In the upcoming clash, he could score his 13th goal in 21 games against the white-and-red team. There are odds of 3.10 for this ahead of the clash between VfB Stuttgart and Dortmund.
VfB Stuttgart – Dortmund Tip
In the past seven matches between the two teams, 28 goals have been scored, which is an exact average of four goals per match. We trust this statistic and bet that the spectators can expect a goal spectacle. We therefore predict that more than three goals will be scored in the match between VfB Stuttgart and Dortmund. Since this tip is fraught with risk, we bet correspondingly fewer units.
An alternative to the recommendation is a bet on both teams scoring a goal and a total of at least three goals. The value there, however, is much lower.
