Will the Swabians seize the moment?
When the current second-placed team in the table visits the third-placed team, you would expect a top match of superlatives. In reality, however, there could be remarkably little pepper in this game. For one thing, Munich have a five-point lead and would not lose second place even if VfB Stuttgart v Bayern Tip 1 pans out. And secondly, all the focus at the Isar is on the key game in the Champions League semi-final at Real Madrid
While the Swabians, who have also secured their place in the Champions League thanks to Dortmund’s victory over PSG, could end a long dry spell against the German record champions with a win, FCB are likely to field a B-team to ensure all their key players are fit for Wednesday’s game in Madrid.
Of course, the German record champions’ second string also has plenty of quality. However, VfB Stuttgart’s home strength also speaks in their favor. Sebastian Hoeneß’ side are unbeaten in ten consecutive Bundesliga home games (seven wins, three draws) and now welcome a team that has been very susceptible to conceding goals of late. FCB have kept a clean sheet just once in their last 13 league games. Moreover, only Hoffenheim conceded more away goals in the Bundesliga in 2024 (22) than Bayern (16).
Accordingly, it makes sense to bet on the double chance 1X with over 1.5 goals. In a match between the two teams with the highest expected goals value in the Bundesliga – Bayern have 83.4 and Stuttgart 66.5 – goals are also very likely. Betting on the Swabians to score the first goal of the match is a coherent alternative that can be played at odds of 1.76 at Winamax. New customers can get up to €100 in free bets with this bookmaker’s welcome bonus
VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form
VfB Stuttgart are playing a phenomenal season that – as of Wednesday evening – will lead the club to the UEFA Champions League. Three matchdays before the end of the season, the Swabians have a seven-point lead in fifth place, which, thanks to Dortmund’s 1:0 victory over Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg of the Champions League semi-final, is guaranteed to be enough for a place in the top flight. VfB cannot drop any lower.
Of course, after a strong season, the aim is not to lose everything now and drop to fifth place. However, just one win from the last three league games, for example, is enough to ensure that they cannot be ousted from the top four under any circumstances. Even the runners-up spot is still possible, although they would have to make up five points on the German record champions
Will VfB Stuttgart end their long drought against FCB?
So everything is already set for a party on Saturday. What better way to celebrate their return to the Champions League than with a home win against Bayern? The odds on VfB Stuttgart against Bayern are in favor of the Whites and Reds.
However, it should be noted that the Swabians not only lost the first leg 3-0. The last eleven Bundesliga home games against the German record champions have also all ended in defeat without exception. The supporters of the team from the Baden-Württemberg state capital have had to wait a correspondingly long time for a win against Munich
VfB Stuttgart is one of the strongest home teams in the Bundesliga
VfB have recently failed to win two Bundesliga games in a row for the first time since January (one draw, one defeat). However, given that the Swabians came close to ending the Werkself’s unbeaten run last weekend, this fact should not carry too much weight.
Much more decisive is the home strength of Hoeneß’ team. Stuttgart have only lost one of their 15 Bundesliga home games in the 2023/24 season (eleven wins, three draws). VfB are currently unbeaten in ten games at the MHPArena (seven wins, three draws) – the Swabians’ longest run in the Bundesliga since August 2009.
Predicted line-up of VfB Stuttgart:
Bayern – Statistics & current form
FC Bayern Munich are facing a landmark match. Of course, this does not mean the visit to VfB Stuttgart, currently third in the table, but the second leg of the Champions League semi-final at Real Madrid on Wednesday.
If the Reds prevail at the Santiago Bernabéu and advance to the final of the premier class, they could still salvage what is generally regarded as a botched season. Accordingly, everything is currently subordinated to this goal
Basically, Bayern are not playing a bad season
The curious thing is that, on closer inspection, the season isn’t all that messed up. Munich just won 2:1 against Eintracht Frankfurt and celebrated their 22nd Bundesliga victory in the process. In comparison: At the end of the entire 2022/23 season, only 21 wins were recorded.
It must therefore be emphasized once again that it is not Bayern who are having a remarkably weak season, but Bayer Leverkusen have simply had an absolutely exceptional year, while FCB are the Bundesliga’s absolute goal factory with an expected goals value of 83.4 and 89 goals scored
Bayern are too susceptible to conceding goals in 2023/24
However, Munich can be accused of a defensive vulnerability that has not been present in this form in recent years. Thomas Tuchel’s men have only kept a clean sheet once in their last 13 league games – in a 2-0 win against 1. FC Köln, who themselves have the weakest Bundesliga offense.
In the calendar year 2024, only TSG Hoffenheim have conceded more goals away from home (22) than the team from the Isar (16), which is why the prediction that this match between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern could be quite high-scoring is very consistent. However, given that the Reds’ focus is on their visit to Madrid, it must also be taken into account that the German record champions will probably only field their second string.
Predicted Bayern line-up:
VfB Stuttgart – Bayern head-to-head comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 37 – 29 – 93
A total of 159 meetings have taken place between the two teams so far and with 93 wins, FC Bayern Munich clearly lead the direct comparison. The Reds also won the first leg 3-0 and have also won all of their last eleven Bundesliga away games at VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart – Bayern betting tip
It’s worth noting that the betting odds for VfB Stuttgart v Bayern favor the home team, who have a better chance of beating the German record champions than they have had for several decades due to the special circumstances that Munich have a landmark Champions League game ahead of them next Wednesday. The Swabians certainly have the necessary home strength, having not lost in front of a home crowd in ten Bundesliga games (seven wins, three draws).
The prediction for VfB Stuttgart v Bayern is that Sebastian Hoeneß’ side will not lose this home game against Munich, who will probably be fielding a B team. We recommend the combined bet on the double chance 1X with over 1.5 goals
