Peru desperately need the win
The qualifying phase for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar is also drawing to a close in South America. Peru still have a chance of a coveted place in the final tournament, but urgently need to pick up points. Bottom-placed Venezuela can also still hope to participate, but it will be difficult.
In the run-up to the match between Venezuela and Peru, the betting odds show that it is not so easy to determine a favourite. The bookmakers see the guests from Peru slightly ahead, but that is not too clear. Venezuela has the weaker record, but the Peruvians have not been able to shine very often in recent months either.
This means that Peru will have to have a very good day if they are to make a step towards a play-off place or even the top four on the 14th of 18 matchdays. However, with many teams failing to shine with consistency in this qualifying phase, it is quite conceivable.
Venezuela – Statistics & current form
The team from Venezuela is in last place in the table of the South American group for the qualification for the World Cup in Qatar. In purely mathematical terms, there is still a chance of qualification, but this is anything but realistic. Individually, this team simply falls behind the competition. Coach Leo Gonzalez’s team can keep up more often, as in the 0:1 defeat in Ecuador last matchday. However, they rarely achieve anything worthwhile.
As a result, it is hardly surprising that the hosts are considered the underdogs, even if this is not completely clear-cut.
Venezuela’s problems become clear when you look at the statistics. The team has only won two of its last 15 competitive matches. They have lost seven of their last eight matches, with only a narrow home victory against Ecuador in October.
Venezuela rely on compactness and counter-attacking
Venezuela don’t have the really big individual players at their disposal. Darwin Machis from FC Granada or the ex-Bundesliga professional Tomas Rincon are already among the better-known names. The 50th-ranked team in the FIFA World Ranking is therefore relying on a compact structure and wants to make pinpricks in the forward play. Despite their far from good record, they have at least managed to remain reasonably stable defensively.
Even though Venezuela loses a lot of games, they have not conceded more than three goals in any of their 13 competitive games in the 2021 calendar year. The truth is, however, that the Venezuelans have not scored a goal of their own in seven of these games. The price of defensive focus, then, is that the offence often lies fallow.
Because of these statistics and also because of the importance of this match, especially for the visitors, our prediction before the Venezuela vs Peru match is that less than 2.5 goals will be scored.
Predicted line-up of Venezuela:
Farinez – Rosales, Osorio, Makoun, Ferraresi, Carrillo – Rincon, Martinez, Caseres – Machis, Hurtado
Last matches played by Venezuela:
World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
11/11 2021 – Ecuador 1 – 0 Venezuela
10/15 2021 – Chile 3 – 0 Venezuela
10/10 2021 – Venezuela 2 – 1 Ecuador
10/08 2021 – Venezuela 1 – 3 Brazil
09/10 2021 – Paraguay 2 – 1 Venezuela
Peru – Statistics & current form
Despite just 14 points from 13 qualifiers, Peru can still dream of the final tournament in Qatar. Both fourth place, currently occupied by Chile, and fifth place, which at least entitles them to participate in the play-offs, are only two points away. Peru are currently in seventh place and will be looking to take an important step forward with a win at bottom-placed Venezuela.
At the Copa America in the summer, Peru showed how difficult this team is to play against. The team only lost to Brazil in the semi-finals (0:1) and ended up in fourth place. Their overall record for the year is fairly even, with six wins, seven losses and two draws. Peru are not a bad team, but they have lost two of their last three qualifying matches.
The defeat at Bolivia is particularly noteworthy. The 0:1 against a team that Peru was supposed to beat was a setback. The must-win task of Venezuela must not be taken lightly under any circumstances. Peru must learn from past mistakes.
Peru look to improve away record
Weak away record in recent matches as well. Peru have lost three matches away from home in a row. That should and must change now, because Venezuela is probably the weakest opponent in this qualification phase. Both teams have one thing in common: they don’t concede too many goals. Peru is also a compact team, fielding five or six defensive-minded players per game.
As both teams place a lot of emphasis on defence, our tip before the Venezuela vs Peru match is that less than 2.5 goals will be scored. Only one of the last seven matches in the qualifying phase involving Peru has gone over that mark.
Predicted Peru line-up:
Gallese – Advincula, Zambrano, Ramos, Trauco – Tapia, Peña, Calcaterra – Carrillo, Cueva, Lapadula
Last matches played by Peru:
World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
11/12 2021 – Peru 3 – 0 Bolivia
10/15 2021 – Argentina 1 – 0 Peru
10/10 2021 – Bolivia 1 – 0 Peru
10/08 2021 – Peru 2 – 0 Chile
09/10 2021 – Brazil 2 – 0 Peru
Venezuela – Peru Direct comparison / H2H balance
The first leg of the World Cup qualifier in Peru saw the then hosts win 1-0. The same result was achieved in the duel at the Copa America in Brazil in the summer. Of 30 direct duels, 22 went to Peru, only eight to Venezuela. There were also six matches that ended in a draw. With 62:39 goals scored, the visitors from Peru also have an advantage on their own side there.
Venezuela – Peru Tip
Venezuela still have hope of getting into the race for qualification for the World Cup with a good series in the end. However, that is not particularly realistic, as the quality is probably simply too low for that. Opponents Peru are playing a solid 2021, but need to improve especially on the road, where they recently lost three games in a row.
The favourites are easily the visitors, but it is important to note that betting on a Peru win is not risk-free due to their away record. Given the statistics of both teams, we recommend betting at good odds on less than 2.5 goals being scored before the Venezuela vs Peru game.
