Will Chile’s disastrous away record continue?

The 2026 World Cup is already casting its shadow in South America, with three of the 18 qualifying matchdays already completed. Matchday four will now follow in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, opening in the Venezuelan city of Maturin, the capital of the state of Monagas. A city that lies just 67 meters above sea level. In the duel between hosts Venezuela and Chile, completely identical betting odds are offered when betting on the victory.

After three match days, the table still has relatively little significance. However, the thesis that this is a duel of equals is supported. Both teams have collected four points from their first three games. In addition, both teams scored a success in their first international match in October. Venezuela held top favorite Brazil to a respectable 1-1 draw, while Chile won 2-0 at home against Peru. The winner of this match will be able to establish themselves in the World Cup places for the time being, and our prediction between Venezuela and Chile seems promising for the home side.

In international soccer, Chile has of course received far more attention in the past and accordingly has a clear lead in direct comparisons. But Venezuela is one of those countries that can count on a very good development. The match kicks off late Tuesday night at 11 p.m.

Venezuela – statistics & current form

The national team of Venezuela is known as “La Vinotinto” – the Wine Reds. Internationally, the association has so far only been able to attract attention in the youth, because in the nearly 32 million inhabitants country of Venezuela, the round leather has long played a subordinate role. Baseball and basketball are still the most popular sports, but soccer has developed brilliantly. In 2026, the federation is now expected to shed the role of black sheep. After all, Venezuela is the only CONMEBOL member that has never been represented at a World Cup.

1:1 draw in Brazil

The increase in the field of participants means that as many as six World Cup tickets will be fixed in South America in 2026, and the seventh (out of ten teams) will still get a chance in an intercontinental playoff. The probability of a premiere on the part of Venezuela can be considered quite high. Head coach Fernando Batista’s team started the World Cup qualifying campaign with a narrow defeat in Colombia, before Jose Salomon Rondon held his nerve from the ominous spot in the 93rd minute to secure a 1-0 victory on matchday two.

The third qualifying match involving Venezuela saw goals on both sides for the first time. This was by no means to be expected, as points were not to be expected away from Brazil. Joker Eduard Bello’s 85th-minute goal secured a surprising point for the crass underdogs. The Venezuelan defense was also convincing against the highly-rated Selecao. Not many goals have been scored since Fernando Batista took over. In seven international matches, he looks at a convincing 4-2-1 record with a goal difference of just 7:4. Therefore, the obvious prediction for Venezuela vs. Chile is a sub 2.5 – but even a sub 1.5 has good chances of success.

Venezuela has a pure legionnaire squad to offer, but the really big stars are not to be found despite the strong development in recent years. Venezuela is a team that impresses with its collective and especially wants to create danger with fast vertical play after winning the ball.

Predicted lineup of Venezuela:
Romo – Gonzalez, Osorio, Angel, Makoun – Machis, Herrera, Rincon, Sosa – Cordova, Rondon

Chile – statistics & current form

Not only does Venezuela have an Argentine head coach, but Chile also relies on expertise from the country of the current world champions. While Batista has been responsible for Venezuela soaring to new heights, the record of Berizzo, who worked in Spain with Sevilla and Celta Vigo, is by no means so positive. In 14 international matches under his wing, the two-time Copa America winner has averaged just 1.14 points per game. At least the form curve is showing a bit of an upward trend, with five of his first six international matches lost.

Five times to nil in six games

With the Copa America titles in 2015 and 2016, Chile had finally arrived in the concert of the greats. Some players from that winning team are still part of today’s 2023 squad, but this is mainly due to a lack of alternatives. Chile is missing a complete generation behind Vidal, Sanchez, Medel & Co. Unsurprisingly, the current number 36 in the FIFA world rankings has only been a spectator at the last two World Cup finals.

Chile began their World Cup qualifying campaign with a 3-1 defeat in Uruguay before a goalless draw at home to Colombia. In the first international match in October, Peru was defeated 2-0. The Chileans have thus once again proven that defense in particular is one of their great strengths. Chile have kept a clean sheet in five of their last six games, with the three goals conceded against Uruguay on the first qualifying matchday being an exception.

The form curve is undoubtedly pointing upwards, yet odds on the visitors are discouraged between Venezuela and Chile. After all, Chile has brought in the good results in front of the home crowd in each case. In the last eight away games, the team conceded five defeats and achieved only three draws (goal difference 3:14).

Predicted lineup of Chile:
Cortes – Suazo, Maripan, Medel, Catalan – Pulgar, Mendez – Brereton Diaz, Valdes, Echeverria – Alexis Sanchez

Venezuela – Chile Direct comparison / H2H balance

Measured by historical data, Venezuela vs Chile is the value when betting on the visitors. Chile has by far the better record in head-to-head comparisons, winning a total of 21 of their 29 previous matches. In the different qualifiers for the World Cups, Chile has won 12 out of 16 matches. However, Venezuela won for the first time in front of a home crowd in their last home match against Chile (November 2020). Jose Salomon Rondon provided that first in the closing stages, and it was Venezuela’s third win overall.

Venezuela – Chile Tip

The assessment of the best bookmakers does raise a few questions in this duel. Judging by the latest findings, between Venezuela and Chile the offered betting odds are not comprehensible. Venezuela has been convincing with very good results and has even wrested a deserved draw from the Selecao recently. Chile is past its best and has recently disappointed on the road (eight games without a win). Nevertheless, a duel on equal terms is expected.

Venezuelan soccer has not yet attracted much attention in many parts of the world, but its development is promising and participation in the 2026 World Cup is absolutely realistic. Chile, on the other hand, is a team peppered with veteran stars who are long past their prime.

Coupled with the away weakness, our tendency goes in the direction of the host. To minimize the risk, the tip “Draw No Bet 1” with six units is played between Venezuela and Chile. Other interesting options are the bets on the Under 1.5 and Under 2.5 – both teams put the main focus on the safe defense.