The air is getting thin for Bolivia away from home
In Europe, most have already secured their World Cup ticket, but in the rest of the world, the decisions are still pending. In South America, there are still four match days before the four fixed World Cup participants and the play-off opponents are finally decided. The battle for the fourth ticket is particularly hotly contested. On matchday 15, Venezuela and Bolivia will face off in Barinas
Apart from the already qualified teams from Brazil and Argentina, the hosts Venezuela are the only team that can play the last four qualifying matches without much pressure. As the lowest-ranked team, a first-time World Cup participation is no longer possible. However, underdog Bolivia, who are currently only two points behind, can dream of this. Nevertheless, according to the current odds, Venezuela are the clear favourites against Bolivia.
One reason for this assessment by the bookmakers is mainly that there is a big discrepancy between Bolivia’s performances in home and away matches. In addition, Venezuela has often been beaten below value recently. The match kicks off at 11pm on Friday night.
Venezuela – Statistics & current form
The Wine Reds have yet to play a role in football and have never qualified for a World Cup. For years, baseball and basketball dominated and football was actually considered a fringe sport. Only in the recent past has this picture changed and gradually Venezuela has been able to close the gap on the competition.
Exciting squad available
The federation has already been able to celebrate great successes at youth level, but the senior national team is still lagging behind a little. However, the prospects for the future are quite bright, as the current squad of head coach Jose Nestor Pekermann consists exclusively of legionnaires. Some players also play an important role in the big leagues. With striker Josef Martinez or the two wingers Darwin Machis and Yeferson Soteldo, the offensive side in particular has exciting personnel to offer. In addition, the 72-year-old Pekerman has a relatively young squad at his disposal, which still has a lot of potential in the coming years.
In immediate terms, however, the gap is still too big and consistent performances are a major problem. In the current World Cup qualifiers, there have been surprises time and again (2-1 win against Chile, goalless draw against Uruguay), but too often the Wine Reds have had to concede narrow defeats. In six of the eleven defeats so far, there was only one goal difference.
The role of favourite is nevertheless justified, because with its good legionnaires, Venezuela certainly has no quality disadvantages against Bolivia. In addition, all seven points in the current qualifying campaign have come at home and Bolivia are traditionally much weaker away from home. Completely without pressure due to the lack of perspective – this could also be quite helpful for the Pekerman eleven. With Venezuela against Bolivia, the prediction on the home win can be underlined with many arguments.
Predicted line-up of Venezuela:
Farinez – Navarro, Osorio, Makoun, Bonilla – Andres Martinez, Rincon – Machis, Casseres Junior, Soteldo – Josef Martinez
Last matches played by Venezuela:
World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
11/16 2021 – Venezuela 1 – 2 Peru
11/11 2021 – Ecuador 1 – 0 Venezuela
10/15 2021 – Chile 3 – 0 Venezuela
10/10 2021 – Venezuela 2 – 1 Ecuador
10/08 2021 – Venezuela 1 – 3 Brazil
Bolivia – Statistics & current form
Unlike Venezuela, Bolivia has already been able to participate on the very big football stage. In addition to appearances in 1930 and 1950, “La Verde” was also able to present itself in the USA in 1994. Since then, however, qualification has always been a long way off, so the current qualification is already a great success for head coach Cesar Farias’ team. Unlike its South American competitors, Bolivia has hardly any legionnaires. And the Bolivian league cannot be described as particularly strong.
No-name team enjoys home advantage
There are only four legionnaires in total, one of whom earns his money in South Africa and one in Peru. So there are no big stars to be found and accordingly the Bolivian team is a pure no-name squad. Nevertheless, the gap to much higher-ranked teams like Uruguay is only two points.
The reason? Home advantage. The altitude in La Paz is a major concern for the competition. Of the 15 points Bolivia have collected, 13 have come at home. The only draws away from home were against Chile and Paraguay. Most recently, Bolivia suffered four away defeats in a row, the last three of which ended in 3-0 defeats.
Football-wise, the team does not have the means to keep up with the competition. Without the climatic advantage, the air becomes very thin for Bolivia and defeats are the order of the day. With this title in mind, the current standings must be viewed with caution and in the duel between Venezuela and Bolivia, a bet in the direction of the visitors is not recommended at all. The risk is far too great.
In one thing, however, Bolivia is still the front runner – striker Marcelo Moreno (was briefly active with Bremen many years ago, but flopped) is the top scorer in the current World Cup qualifiers with nine goals. The entire offensive game runs through the now 34-year-old veteran.
Predicted Bolivia line-up:
Lampe – Bejarano, Jusino, Sagredo – Ramallo, Saucedo, Villarroel, Saavedra – Arce, Marcelo Moreno, Miranda
Last matches played by Bolivia:
Friendly match
01/21 2022 – Bolivia 5 – 0 Trinidad and Tobago
World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifier
11/16 2021 – Bolivia 3 – 0 Uruguay
11/12 2021 – Peru 3 – 0 Bolivia
Friendly match
11/06 2021 – El Salvador 0 – 1 Bolivia
World Cup – CONMEBOL qualifier
10/14 2021 – Bolivia 4 – 0 Paraguay
Venezuela – Bolivia Direct comparison / H2H record
For the 20th time, the two teams will face each other in the course of World Cup qualifying and it is clear to see how valuable home advantage is. Of the 19 matches so far, 14 have been won by the respective hosts, with only three away victories. In Venezuela’s last four home games against Bolivia, the prediction of a home win was the right decision.
Venezuela – Bolivia tip
Theoretically, Bolivia still have a chance of a fourth World Cup appearance, but given their disastrous away record, it is probably only theoretical. Even though the home side will finish the current qualifying campaign in last place, their squad certainly has more quality to offer than that of Bolivia. In addition, the home strength and the away weakness of Venezuela against Bolivia make the odds on the home side very interesting
Venezuela have only scored nine goals, but have a lot of quality, especially on the offensive with Martinez & Co. He had to miss October/November due to injury, and his return will give Venezuela another significant boost. In this respect, a prediction on HT/FT 1/1 for the match between Venezuela and Bolivia seems very exciting with betting odds of up to 2.62.
