Will Real jump to first place in the short term?
Late on Friday night, the Madrid Royals can increase the pressure on their arch-rivals and take over the top spot in the table, at least temporarily, with an away win in the north of Spain. For this to happen, however, the visitors must win the match between Valladolid and Real Madrid. The Ancelotti team is currently two points behind the Blaugrana from Barcelona.
The president of the hosts from the north of Spain is a Real legend, namely none other than the Brazilian Ronaldo. But there will certainly be no gifts, because the promoted team is dependent on points itself. The conclusion for the autumn of 2022 can be quite positive, however, because Real Valladolid, in 12th place in the table, is currently the best promoted team in the Spanish football top flight.
However, a point against the reigning champions would certainly be a kind of “bonus point”. The bookmakers offer 1.50 for the prediction on the visitors between Valladolid and Real Madrid, so the double chance 1X is tempting with odds just below 3.00.
One glimmer of hope for the home side is their very good record at home in the Nuevo Jose Zorrilla Stadium, as Valladolid have won four of their five matches this season in front of their home crowd. Friday night’s match kicks off at 21:30.
Valladolid – Statistics & current form
When “Il Fenomeno” Ronaldo bought 51 per cent of the club’s shares and stepped in as president in September 2018, many believed the club would establish themselves in the top half of the Spanish football table in the coming years.
Ronaldo, however, did not open the big money bag and wanted to buy quick success, but continued to run the club in a down-to-earth way. Even after relegation, he lost no interest and, finishing second in the table, they made an immediate return to La Liga last season.
Four of the five wins were at home
With head coach Pacheta, the goal this season is to stay in the league. Although only 14 match days have been played, the current situation is definitely satisfactory. 17 points are three points more than in the relegation year 2020/21 and currently mean a six-point lead over the first relegation place.
It is noticeable, however, that the club lacks the scoring threat of its only top striker. The Valladolid offence has only scored 13 times so far. Only Getafe (twelve), Elche (ten) and Cadiz (nine) have scored fewer goals.
Nevertheless, the team has celebrated five victories so far this season, four of them at home. Pacheta’s side have won each of their last three home games, including an impressive 1-0 win over Real Sociedad de San Sebastian. Self-confidence should therefore be present in the promoted team; nevertheless, a bet on a surprise between Valladolid and Real Madrid is not promising, because the chances of success are rated as very low.
The home side will have to do without the two attacking players Anuar and Kenedy (on loan from Chelsea), otherwise the entire squad is available. The home match against Real Madrid will be the second match after the World Cup break, in the Copa del Rey they managed a clear 5:1 away win against underdog Arenas Club.
Predicted line-up of Valladolid:
Masip – Olaza, Feddal, El Yamiq, Fresneda – Narvaez, Monchu, Perez, Plata – Weissmann Guardiola
Last matches played by Valladolid:
Copa del Rey
22/12/2022 – Arenas Getxo 1 – 5 Real Valladolid
Friendly club matches
17/12/2022 – Crystal Palace 2 – 1 Real Valladolid
13/12/2022 – Real Valladolid 0 – 0 Clermont Foot
10/12/2022 – Lille 2 – 0 Real Valladolid
06/12/2022 – Athletic Bilbao 2 – 0 Real Valladolid
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
A total of twelve Real Madrid players featured at the Winter World Cup in Qatar. Some players, such as oldie Luka Modric or the youngsters Tchouameni and Camavinga, played until the end, others had to go home earlier. The time between the World Cup and the return to everyday life in the league is nevertheless very short and accordingly one or the other World Cup player could still be spared in Valladolid.
Carlo Ancelotti, however, is a coach who does not necessarily prefer rotation, but rather counts on his established core. Apart from the trio mentioned above (who only returned to training on Wednesday), the rest of the squad will have had enough time to recover. Karim Benzema is also ready for action again after his injury and should therefore be in the starting line-up.
Best start to a season since 2014/15
While Real Madrid did not enjoy top spot in the table at Christmas, they can still look back on a very successful autumn. The last time a Real team had more points after 14 games was in the 2014/15 season (36 points). In the previous year, Real had collected two points less at this point of the season.
However, the only defeat in La Liga so far came in the last away game, when Real lost 3-2 in the small city derby against Rayo Vallecano. The title contenders are therefore warned not to underestimate the supposedly small teams. In the six remaining away games, Real had no trouble and celebrated just as many victories. With a total of six “handicap wins” this season, odds on the match between Valladolid and Real Madrid to win by at least two goals difference are a good option.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois – Mendy, Rüdiger, Alaba, Carvajal – Valverde, Ceballos, Kroos – Vinicius Junior, Benzema, Asensio
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
La Liga
11/11/2022 – Real Madrid 2 – 1 Cadiz
08/11/2022 – Rayo Vallecano 3 – 2 Real Madrid
Champions League Grp. F
03/11/2022 – Real Madrid 5 – 1 Celtic Glasgow
La Liga
30/10/2022 – Real Madrid 1 – 1 Girona
Champions League Grp. F
26/10/2022 – RB Leipzig 3 – 2 Real Madrid
Valladolid – Real Madrid Direct comparison / H2H balance
It is not at all surprising that the royals from Madrid have a clear lead in the direct comparison with the team from Valladolid. The reigning title holders from the capital have won 58 of the 90 games played so far in the Spanish top flight.
But especially in the recent past, the games were not clear-cut affairs for the house-high favourites. In the last three matches between Valladolid and Real Madrid, the bet on Real was correct, but in each case there was only a narrow 1:0 victory. The underdog’s last win dates back to the 2008/09 season.
Valladolid – Real Madrid tip
The promoted team welcomes the champion – with this starting position, there is no need to discuss the role of the favourite. Between Real Valladolid and Real Madrid, betting on the visitors is absolutely obvious. Although Real will at least be without the trio around Luka Modric, who has been on World Cup duty for a long time, the difference in quality is enormous. The direct comparison speaks just as clearly in favour of the guests from the capital.
According to the direct comparison, betting on a narrow victory with a one-goal lead would be obvious, but in the end the choice for Valladolid against Real Madrid falls on the prediction of a handicap victory for the favourites.
Real have already scored 33 times in the current season (best offence together with Barcelona) and have scored at least twice in eleven games. With the rather weak Valladolid offence, betting on an away win without conceding is also a good option.
