Will Valencia get back on track in the cup?
The Spanish cup competition, the Copa del Rey, is entering the decisive phase. The first two quarter-final matches are scheduled for next Wednesday. Can Valencia FC live up to their role as favourites against the Andalusian outsiders?
Without a doubt, Valencia FC have the greater tradition of the two teams in the Spanish cup competition. The last success was just three years ago. In 2019, the great and glorious FC Barcelona could be defeated with 2:1 in the final. This season, too, the cup is Valencia FC’s only realistic chance of winning the title. Accordingly, Valencia FC should go into the match against Cadiz motivated. The betting odds of the bookmakers show that the chance to reach the semi-finals this season is quite high.
Cadiz FC would love to prevent that. The Spanish King’s Cup is missing from the club’s showcase so far, and they have never reached the final either. Of all 8 teams still in the cup, bookmakers rate the chances of FC Cadiz winning the cup as the lowest.
Both teams had to win against lower class opponents in the previous rounds. In the quarter-finals, both teams will now face their first test against another team from “La Liga”. Who has the better cards in this duel? In addition to an analysis of the form of both teams, this tip between Valencia and Cardiz also includes a prediction for the outcome of the quarter-final duel.
Valencia – Statistics & current form
After a strong start to the season, Valencia FC, which started the season with great ambitions, is now back in the league where it was in the last two seasons: in the grey midfield of the table. The results in the last few weeks have contributed significantly to this. Of the last five games in the league, only one was won, and the last four games ended in three defeats and a draw. The only bright spots in the last few weeks were the two wins in the cup against the underclass teams from Cartagena and Baleares and even these were anything but convincing.
Too many draws in home games
One reason Valencia are stuck in the league is that they share the points too often in their home games, even though defeats are few and far between. Of the eleven home games this season, only two were lost, but there were five draws and only four wins. Often they were behind and managed to save a point just before the end of the game.
Among the last five home games in the league, there has also been only one win, numerous draws (3) and one defeat.
Winless in three games against Cadiz
Coach Bordalas must not have made any big cheers at the cup draw. After all, Valencia FC have not been able to beat Cadiz FC since their return to the Spanish top flight two years ago. Two draws and one defeat are the sobering record against the small club from Andalusia in that period.
Due to the current form of Valencia FC and the impressions of the most recent duels, our tip for next Wednesday’s clash between Valencia and Cadiz is that it will be an exciting and even match and a real cup fight and that the favourite will not prevail without major problems. Cillessen, Alderete and Paulista will be absent for the match.
Predicted line-up of Valencia:
Domenech, Lato, Diakhaby, Foulquier, Correia, Racic, Musah, Guillamon, Soler, Duro, Guedes
Last matches played by Valencia:
LaLiga
01/22 2022 – Atletico Madrid 3 – 2 Valencia
01/19 2022 – Valencia 1 – 1 Sevilla
Copa del Rey
01/16 2022 – Atletico Baleares 0 – 1 Valencia
LaLiga
01/08 2022 – Real Madrid 4 – 1 Valencia
Copa del Rey
01/05 2022 – Cartagena 1 – 2 Valencia
Cadiz – Statistics & current form
Since its return to the Beletage of Spanish football, FC Cadiz has played a decent role despite modest financial resources. The first season after promotion ended in twelfth place in the table, one place ahead of the upcoming opponents. Currently, however, things are going worse and they occupy the first relegation place in the table.
At least they were able to fight their way into the quarter-finals of the cup. On the way there, however, they only beat lower-class teams. But even these teams proved to be a stumbling block in the last two seasons, when they failed early and disgracefully against supposed underdogs in the cup. Hope for Wednesday’s cup match may have been raised by their last two league performances, where they recently picked up four points from two games.
Away with surprising point wins
The fact that FC Cadiz should not be taken lightly was felt a few weeks ago by none other than Real Madrid. In the home match against Cadiz, the royals could not get beyond a 0-0 draw. At the end of the game, oldie Negredo even had the chance to score the winner. It is astonishing that FC Cadiz tend to get their points in away matches against opponents from the upper half of the table this season, while they lose against opponents from the same regions like FC Elche or FC Getafe. It seems that Cadiz enjoys the role of the underdog and can successfully implement the defensive tactics chosen in these games.
In these games, Cadiz FC defend with two chains around their own sixteen-metre area and sometimes have up to eight players in their own penalty area. Here it is difficult for the opponent to find gaps. Valencia FC will also have to find solutions against Cadiz, and the forecast is that it will be a close game between the two teams. The away record in the league for FC Cadiz reads 3-3-5, not too bad for a relegation candidate. However, three of the last five away games were lost. However, the relegation crisis is more due to the poor home record (0-6-5).
Only two games left to reach the historic cup final for the first time. The team from Andalusia will approach this cup match with corresponding motivation. Missing will be the injured Fali, Perea and Mari.
Predicted line-up of Cadiz:
Ledesma, Espino, Chust, Jimenez, Carcelen, Salvi, Alex, Fede, Alejo, Negredo, Lozano
Last matches played by Cadiz:
LaLiga
01/22 2022 – Levante 0 – 2 Cadiz
01/18 2022 – Cadiz 2 – 2 Espanyol
Copa del Rey
01/15 2022 – Sporting Gijon (2)0 – 0(4) Cadiz
LaLiga
01/09 2022 – Osasuna Pamplona 2 – 0 Cadiz
Copa del Rey
01/06 2022 – Fuenlabrada 0 – 1 Cadiz
Valencia – Cadiz Direct comparison / H2H balance
Valencia FC and Cadiz FC have faced each other 29 times. Valencia lead the direct duel with 15 wins. Eight games ended in a draw and six times FC Cadiz won. The goal difference of 47:24 is also in favour of Valencia.
The last league matches before Cadiz’s promotion were played a long time ago (before 2006) due to the different league affiliations. The last Copa del Rey clash went to Valencia FC, with Cadiz being beaten 4-0 at home in 2011
Valencia – Cadiz Tip
So, an improvement in performance from the past matches is needed if Valencia FC are to reach the semi-finals of the Spanish Cup. Those who even believe in a cup coup in the game Valencia vs. Cadiz due to the current weakness of Valencia FC will find odds around 4.60 for an away win.
In the Valencia vs. Cadiz match, our tip is that it will be an even cup match, which may even be decided in extra time or a penalty shootout. Both teams are among the teams with the most draws in the league, two of the last three duels also ended in a draw. A clear victory of the favourite is probably not to be expected.
For this reason, we try it with the bet “half-time or final score: draw” and use two units for it. Since this is a knockout game, neither team is likely to take any early risks. A defensive approach by the guests is to be expected anyway. Accordingly, we expect a game of patience in this match, as neither team wants to fall behind unnecessarily. As an additional bet, the Under 2.5 is therefore also a good option.
