Can Barça end the horror week in Valencia on a positive note?

FC Barcelona will be looking to end a truly awful week with a win – but it won’t be an easy task. After two painful defeats in La Liga and the Champions League, Barcelona visit Valencia CF at the Mestalla on matchday 17 of La Liga. The game kicks off on Saturday evening at 9 p.m.

Barça have looked like a shadow of their former selves recently – especially defensively – and are extremely fragile and noticeably lacking in confidence. For this reason, it is quite surprising that the odds for Valencia v Barcelona speak a very clear language: The reeling Barça is the clear favorite at the Mestalla, Valencia the big underdog despite playing at home.

In our preview of the La Liga match between Valencia and Barcelona, including betting odds, predictions, statistics and team checks for both clubs, we find out why this odds discrepancy could be the case and which exciting tips you can find and play on in this traditional Spanish soccer match.

Valencia – stats & current form

For Valencia CF, the game against the reeling Catalans comes at just the right time. Not only because Barça are not in good form, but also because the same applies to Valencia. They need an incentive and are traditionally always extra motivated against the top teams Barça and Real Madrid, especially in home games. Valencia also desperately need extra motivation to put in a good performance on the pitch again, as this has not been the case recently.

Valencia are without a win in four games, have lost three of them, have not performed well in any of them and have only managed to score a meagre two goals in that time. Their most recent defeats came at Girona (1:2) and Getafe (0:1)

Valencia have the best home defense in La Liga

But those were away performances, Valencia feel much more comfortable at home. They have won four of their seven home games, which puts them in mid-table in the home ranking – but the goals conceded record is much more impressive. With only three goals conceded in seven home games, Valencia have the best home defense in La Liga, together with Real Madrid and Betis. They have only conceded goals in two of their seven home games so far. The 3-0 home win against Atletico Madrid on matchday 5 was remarkable.

Taking all this into account and adding Barça’s problems, a home win doesn’t seem so unrealistic. For Valencia vs. Barcelona, this bet brings with it juicy odds of over 5.00.

Predicted Valencia line-up:

Barcelona – Statistics & current form

2:4 against Girona FC, 2:3 at hitherto pointless Royal Antwerp in the Champions League. Barça end an unsuccessful week with an unloved trip to the Mestalla, where they have suffered many a defeat. Barça’s recent defensive display was not good enough for their own standards.

“I’m worried, the team isn’t feeling well. We’ve had a bad run of negative results, we have to improve”, admitted coach Xavi after the embarrassing defeat in Antwerp

FC Barcelona’s defense is fragile – prediction of Valencia goal(s) obvious

Seven goals conceded in two games – Barça’s defensive stability, which was the key to last year’s championship, is currently nowhere to be seen. In La Liga, they conceded 18 goals in 16 games, which may not sound like a lot, but the Catalans had only conceded six goals at the same point last season – so now they have conceded three times as many!

For this reason, it seems obvious to predict at least one Valencia goal against Barcelona. Barça are shaky away from home anyway, not only defensively but also in terms of results. Even though the Blaugrana are still unbeaten away from home, they have already drawn four times – in each case against small teams or cellar dwellers (Getafe, Mallorca, Granada, Rayo), against whom a win was firmly on the cards. In the Champions League, Barça have lost two of their three away games. All the more reason to at least take a closer look at the odds for a home win or double chance 1/X in the classic Valencia v Barcelona match.

Predicted Barcelona line-up:

Valencia – Barcelona head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Barça did not concede any goals last season – but the Blaugrana defense was also masterful. The Catalans won twice 1-0 against the Valencians in 2022/23, and Barça have won all of their last five encounters with Valencia.

Barça have won five of their last ten matches at the Mestalla, with just one defeat and four draws. However, the fact that the Mestalla is historically a difficult place to play is shown by the completely balanced record at Valencia’s stadium: 41 home wins for Valencia compared to 41 away wins for Barça, 29 duels ended in draws

Valencia – Barcelona betting tip

How will Barça perform at the Mestalla on Saturday evening? That is the big question, because in the two recent top league games against Atletico Madrid (1-0) and Girona (2-4), Barcelona at least performed well with the ball, but against Girona it was already far too little against the ball, and against Antwerp the team finally lacked any physical tension and concentration. Barça’s defense is currently just as fragile as their self-confidence

Valencia could also take advantage of this, although they have only managed to score a meagre eight goals at home so far. A total of 17 goals in 16 games is not exactly evidence of great attacking power. Barça would love to sign off with a narrow 1-0 win, the result of the last two meetings. Last year, Barça scored the winning goal at the same venue at the Mestalla in a low-scoring, evenly-matched game that was only won by Lewandowski in stoppage time. As Valencia will opt for a more defensive approach and the Blaugrana are unsettled and will be keen to avoid (defensive) mistakes after their last two appearances, we are betting on a similar game this time around. Therefore, our betting tip for Valencia vs Barcelona is that it will be a draw at the break