A battle for a place in the final?
In the absence of the big clubs, Real Madrid, FC Barcelona, Atletico Madrid or Sevilla FC, Valencia and Athletic Bilbao face each other in a duel for a place in the Copa del Rey final. These teams have had a good cup season and are now looking to continue it.
Before the match between Valencia and Athletic Bilbao, the odds show exactly what was already evident on the field in the first leg. There is not much separating the two teams. Valencia has the home advantage, but otherwise everything seems really open. The bookmakers expect a close game in any case.
After the 1-1 draw at the San Mames, both teams have a good chance of reaching the final before waiting for the final opponent in the clash between Real Betis and Rayo Vallecano. That match in Valencia kicks off at 9pm on Wednesday.
Valencia – Statistics & current form
On paper, everything reads relatively simple. Valencia played Bilbao 1-1 in the first leg, which means that a win, no matter how many goals, will be enough to get them into the final. The problem with that is on the other side, because on a good day Bilbao can be an extremely tough team. And assessing Valencia accurately also seems impossible this season, because there are many good moments, but also the bad ones.
Valencia are in ninth place in the domestic league, one place and four points behind their opponents from the Basque country. The team won the dress rehearsal for this match in the cup with 1-0 when they faced Mallorca on Saturday. However, that was also the only win in their last five competitive matches, so there is at least a question mark over their form. The good thing about the cup competition is that it doesn’t really matter, because only the 90 (+ X) minutes in this one game count.
On a positive note, Valencia have been getting better results at home than away so far this season. Three of the nine defeats this season have only been at the Mestalla, and the team beat FC Cadiz at home in the cup. However, ahead of the Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao match, the odds do not show a clear favourite.
Valencia: The “zero” stands too rarely
During the course of the last few weeks, it was often the defence that ruined a better result for Valencia. Only in two of the last 14 competitive games could the team remain without conceding a goal. Similarly, there were only a few games in which the defence completely collapsed. Nevertheless, in a knockout match, the focus should be on acting compactly.
The defensive issue has been present throughout the season, with 42 goals conceded in 26 league games being a relatively big problem and preventing Valencia from finishing higher up the table. Coach Pepe Bordalas, who has proven in the past that he can incorporate good defensive concepts, tries a lot, changes systems frequently, and also makes frequent adjustments within a game. The way to a closed and very compact defence is still long, but there are definitely enough ideas.
In general, it should be assumed that Valencia is primarily concerned with playing against the ball and wants to avoid falling behind at all costs. For this reason, before the Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao match, our prediction is that less than 2.5 goals will be scored after 90 minutes.
Predicted line-up of Valencia:
Mamardashvilli – Foulquier, Diakhaby, Paulista, Gaya – Guillamon, Racic, Soler, Musah, Gil – Maxi Gomez
Last matches played by Valencia:
LaLiga
02/26 2022 – Mallorca 0 – 1 Valencia
02/20 2022 – Valencia 1 – 4 Barcelona
02/13 2022 – Deportivo Alaves 2 – 1 Valencia
Copa del Rey
02/10 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 1 – 1 Valencia
LaLiga
02/06 2022 – Valencia 0 – 0 San Sebastian
Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form
As already mentioned, Athletic Bilbao are one place ahead of Valencia in the La Liga table. At the weekend, they suffered a bitter 0:4 defeat at FC Barcelona, but it should also be mentioned that coach Marcelino had important players like Unai Nunez, de Marcos, Sancet, Muniain or Inaki on the bench from the start. Making it to the final is the bigger goal.
The performances so far underpin that. In the round of 16, Athletic beat FC Barcelona after extra time, and in the quarter-finals, it was Real Madrid’s turn after 90 minutes. The Basques also showed their quality in the first leg, had some good chances, but did not create an outstanding starting position, that is also clear. Overall, the form does not cause too many problems, Athletic Bilbao won four of the last seven matches.
The defence as the showpiece of the Basques
While Valencia’s defence, or lack of balance in general, is always a big issue, Athletic Bilbao are emblematic of a compactness that has lasted throughout an entire season. Despite conceding four goals at the weekend, Athletic Bilbao have only conceded 25 goals in the league. Only Real Madrid (20) and Sevilla FC (18) are better. The visitors have kept their own clean sheet in twelve competitive matches this season.
The formation, a 4-4-2, actually seems quite simple. And at times it is, but this formation brings with it the possibility to shift cleverly, to condense the spaces. The team uses this to efficiently pose problems for the opponents.
Because compactness is the Basques’ showpiece and their cup duels so far have been subordinate to their own philosophy, our value tip before the match between Valencia and Athletic Bilbao is that not both teams will score. Bet365 still offers a handy app for betting on the go.
Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:
Unai Simon – de Marcos, Yeray, Unai Nunez, Berchiche – Vesga, Vencedor, Sancet, Muniain, Berenguer – Inaki
Last matches played by Athletic Bilbao:
LaLiga
02/27 2022 – Barcelona 4 – 0 Athletic Bilbao
02/20 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 4 – 0 San Sebastian
02/14 2022 – Mallorca 3 – 2 Athletic Bilbao
Copa del Rey
02/10 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 1 – 1 Valencia
LaLiga
02/07 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 2 – 1 Espanyol
Valencia – Athletic Bilbao Direct comparison / H2H record
Even after 184 direct duels between these two teams, the comparison is still reasonably even. Valencia FC have 71 wins, while Athletic Bilbao have won 66 matches. In terms of goals scored (288:284), the two teams are also almost equal. Four of the last five encounters have ended in a draw.
Valencia – Athletic Bilbao tip
Both teams have quality and an iron will to reach the final. And both will most likely adopt an approach of avoiding mistakes first.
Because of the very well-developed compactness of the visitors in particular, our tip before the match between Valencia and Athletic Bilbao is that less than 2.5 goals will be scored.
