Do the Urus suddenly have to worry about their World Cup ticket again?

Only one of the ten South American national soccer teams has yet to experience a World Cup. The Venezuelan national team has never participated in a World Cup finals. But that is set to change next year in the USA, Mexico, and Canada. With three matchdays to go, the Wine Reds’ chances are still intact. Especially if the tip on the supposed underdog proves correct in the match between Uruguay and Venezuela on Tuesday night.

In the CONMEBOL qualifying standings, only three points currently separate these two teams. Even if the aforementioned Uruguay vs. Venezuela match ends in an away win, the world number 47 would still not be able to overtake the multiple world champions due to their significantly worse goal difference, but the beads of sweat on the forehead of Uruguayan national coach Marcelo Bielsa would multiply immediately. Incidentally, if Venezuela remain in seventh place, they will have to contest and win the intercontinental playoffs.

The three-way market is looking very one-sided ahead of this encounter. The odds for a home win for Uruguay against Venezuela are only 1.50. However, those who believe in a surprise coup by the visitors from the Caribbean coast could be rewarded with a risk-taking pick with a payout of eight times their stake.

Uruguay – Statistics & current form

Marcelo Bielsa’s tenure as coach of the Uruguayan national team began very promisingly in the past two years. La Celeste won ten of their first 13 international matches under El Loco. Among other achievements, they finished third in the Copa America. In addition, the world number 13 celebrated four wins in the first six matchdays of the current World Cup qualifiers.

However, there is currently little sign of the initial euphoria. On the contrary, the Sky Blues are in the midst of a serious results crisis and are going through a difficult phase. The multiple world champions have won only one of their last nine international matches. The Uruguayans have been winless since their 3-2 victory over Colombia in November 2024.

Will Uruguay finally regain its former strength?

The start of the 2025 calendar year in particular has raised doubts about Bielsa and his work. In the three matches played since March, they have managed to pick up just one point. Even more worrying, however, is the fact that Darwin Nunez and Co. have not scored a single goal in 270 minutes. In seven of the last nine international matches following their victory in the third-place play-off at the 2024 Copa America, the highly talented Uruguayan attack failed to find the net.

Unsurprisingly, low odds are being offered on under goals in the third-to-last match between Uruguay and Venezuela. For a maximum of two goals in the game, Interwetten is offering odds of just 1.53. Those who want to bet on the opposite, i.e. at least three goals after 90 minutes, will find solid odds of 2.53 in the Interwetten app, which invites you to take advantage of the Interwetten freebet code.

Hopes for an important breakthrough, which would also be immensely significant in view of the five-point lead that the fifth-placed team has over seventh-placed Venezuela, are raised by the fact that Bielsa’s team is clearly stronger at home. Four of their five qualifying wins have come at home. The overall record is also very respectable, with four wins, two draws, and only one defeat in seven home games. Only Colombia, Brazil, and Argentina have scored more goals at home than the “Celeste,” who have scored twice or more in four games and are now desperate to build on their performances from the first matchdays against their direct rivals.

Venezuela – Statistics & current form

The Venezuelan national team has had a very strong World Cup qualifying campaign so far by its standards. Given that the world number 47 has never qualified for an intercontinental final tournament, its chances have never been better. This is partly due to the fact that, due to the increased number of participants in next year’s World Cup, six direct places will be awarded in the CONMEBOL zone for the first time, with the seventh-placed team advancing to the playoffs. On the other hand, it is of course also due to the very respectable performances of coach Fernando Batista’s team.

Venezuela still waiting for its first away win

The record so far, with four wins, six draws, and only five defeats from 15 games, is very respectable. La Vinotinto currently ranks seventh, but is only three points behind the fifth and sixth-placed teams. However, with two games against Argentina and Colombia still to come after the away game in Montevideo, there is now a bit of pressure on the underdogs in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday.

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Despite the many words of praise that Batista’s team has earned, primarily through its two recent home wins against Peru (1-0) and Bolivia (2-0), it should be noted that 16 of the 18 points collected so far have come from home games.

In fact, the Venezuelans are unbeaten in all eight home games played so far (4-4-0). Away from home, however, they have drawn twice and lost five times in seven matches. They have also conceded 15 goals, an average of more than two per game. Due to this serious weakness away from home, my Uruguay vs. Venezuela prediction is also leaning towards a home win. It cannot be ruled out that this will ultimately be by more than one goal.

Uruguay – Venezuela Head-to-head record / H2H record

There have been 34 meetings between Uruguay and Venezuela so far. With 19 wins, ten draws and only five defeats, the head-to-head record clearly favors the multiple world champions. In 13 home games in Uruguay, the “Celeste” have even celebrated ten wins. In the South American World Cup qualifiers, all seven of the “Urus” home wins came with a margin of at least two goals. The first leg of the current CONMEBOL qualifiers, however, was an extremely unspectacular affair. In September last year, the teams played out a goalless draw. This time around, there are sure to be more goals.

Uruguay – Venezuela Tip

An important duel awaits us on Tuesday night in Montevideo. In the Uruguayan capital, the “Celeste” will face Venezuela. In terms of the table, this means fifth place with 21 points against seventh place with 18 points. A win would be a huge step toward securing a direct ticket to the upcoming World Cup for the home side. Better yet, if Bielsa’s team wins, they will be virtually assured of a top-six finish thanks to their superior goal difference compared to their upcoming opponent. This is one of the reasons why the visitors will have to take a few more risks than they might like to away from home…

Venezuela has lost five of its seven qualifying matches on the road, picking up just two points and conceding an average of more than two goals per game. Uruguay, on the other hand, is much stronger at home and is hoping for a breakthrough after a string of poor performances. I expect them to succeed and am therefore risking four units on the Uruguay vs. Venezuela tip for a home win with at least two goals in the game.