Does the underdog turn into a spoilsport?

The battle for the World Cup tickets in Qatar is coming to a head in South America. There are still three match days to go and only two of the four tickets have been sold. Last weekend, the wheat was separated from the chaff in the fight for the fourth World Cup ticket. The two-time world champions from Uruguay are still in the hunter’s seat. On the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, Uruguay and Venezuela will face each other in Montevideo.

In the first international match of 2022, both teams celebrated a victory last weekend. While this could be described as absolutely existential for Uruguay, the victory for the wine reds from Venezuela was only of a statistical nature. The bottom team in the South American qualifiers no longer has a chance of making it to the 2022 premiership, and the underdogs can compete without pressure and possibly take on the role of spoilers. The bookmakers, however, see Uruguay against Venezuela as house-high favourites according to current betting odds.

An assessment that is absolutely obvious due to the available player material. The clear distribution of roles is also supported by Venezuela’s poor results away from home. A point win would indeed be a big surprise. The match kicks off at 0:00 Central European Time on Tuesday night.

Uruguay – Statistics & current form

A new era has begun for Uruguay – and head coach Diego Alonso could thank his veteran star Luis Suarez for a successful debut. After the Celeste lost their last four qualifying matches in the autumn of 2021, their World Cup participation was in grave danger. “Maestro” Tabarez had to vacate his chair after more than 15 years in office and with Alonso a former professional was presented as his successor.

This personnel rochade is supposed to bring in a breath of fresh air. In terms of personnel, at least, there was only limited evidence of this, because the established forces continue to form the basic framework. An oldie combination was also the guarantor of success in Paraguay. Luis Suarez scored with his left after Godin’s assist (6th qualifying goal). Thanks to the success and the defeats of Colombia, Chile and Bolivia, Uruguay are now in fifth place.

Presumably easy remaining programme

As things stand, Uruguay would have to make the intercontinental play-off as fifth. However, the direct World Cup ticket is still within reach, as the gap to fourth-placed Peru is currently only one point. In addition, the Celeste still have the direct duel up their sleeve, as the Alonso team will also face Peru at home in the first international match in March.

With a home game against Venezuela, who are weak away from home, the aforementioned game at home against Peru and an away game in Chile (who are probably already eliminated by then), the remaining programme reads quite simple. With the quality in the squad, failure would be a sensation.

Uruguay now has many highly talented young players in its ranks. The mix is there and with a more offensive/modern approach, success should return. Alonso relied on a 4-4-2 system with two real centre forwards in the win against Paraguay. Especially up front, there are many players with quality. Nevertheless, the odds for Uruguay against Paraguay are relatively high for a bet of over 2.5.

Predicted Uruguay line-up:
Rochet – Olivera, Gimenez, Godin, Araujo – Valverde, Vecino, Bentancur, Pellistri – Suarez, Nunez

Last matches played by Uruguay:

World Cup – CONMEBOL qualifiers
01/28 2022 –  Paraguay 0 – 1 Uruguay

11/16 2021 – Bolivia 3 – 0 Uruguay

11/13 2021 – Uruguay 0 – 1 Argentina

10/15 2021 – Brazil 4 – 1 Uruguay

10/11 2021 – Argentina 3 – 0 Uruguay

Venezuela – Statistics & current form

Venezuela will not make their first World Cup appearance this year either. However, the upswing of the last few years is clearly visible despite the current last place in the table. A look at the current squad of head coach Jose Nestor Pekerman makes this clear. The Argentinian coaching guru relies on a team that consists almost exclusively of legionnaires.

Weakest offence shows off

The team can convince at times, but still has problems with the necessary consistency. The difference between the home and away games is also striking. In the current qualifying campaign, the Weinroten have collected ten points so far, with all ten points coming at home.

Pekerman made his coaching debut last weekend after taking the reins at the end of November. Prior to that, Venezuela had scored only nine goals in 14 qualifiers. There was no sign of that attacking weakness against Bolivia, however, and England legionnaire Jose Salomon Rondon was the match-winner with a treble. The 4-1 home win over Bolivia was their highest win in a competitive match since November 2016 (when they beat Bolivia 5-0).

2:14-goals in seven away matches

The underdogs have nothing left to lose and can therefore play freely in Montevideo. There should be no lack of self-confidence after the gala against Bolivia and the game in Uruguay is the penultimate chance to finally score on the road.

In the seven away games so far, there have only been defeats. And Venezuela has only scored two goals in the process. With these figures, the prediction of a win for the favourites between Uruguay and Venezuela seems obvious, but Rondon, Machis, Martinez & Co certainly have the qualities to put the home side in trouble at times.

Predicted line-up of Venezuela:
Farinez – Gonzalez, Chancellor, Ferraresi, Hernandez – Rincon, Martinez – Soteldo, Otero, Machis – Salomon Rondon

Last matches played by Venezuela:

World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
01/28 2022 – Venezuela 4 – 1 Bolivia

11/16 2021 – Venezuela 1 – 2 Peru

11/11 2021 – Ecuador 1 – 0 Venezuela

10/15 2021 – Chile 3 – 0 Venezuela

10/10 2021 – Venezuela 2 – 1 Ecuador

Uruguay – Venezuela Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

This duel can be considered a favourite opponent from the point of view of the two-time world champions. In the course of qualifying for the various World Championships, the teams have already faced each other 19 times. Only twice did the Venezuelan team win against the Celeste. No goals were scored in the first qualifying match, as in the qualifiers for the 2018 finals in Russia, Venezuela’s home match against Uruguay ended goalless.

Uruguay – Venezuela Tip

The starting position is completely different in this match. For the hosts it is an absolute must win in the fight for the World Cup ticket, while the guests can play completely free and without pressure. In terms of quality, Uruguay are certainly on a different level to the visitors, but Uruguay have also had major problems in recent months. The game will by no means be a foregone conclusion.

Pekerman has injected new life and enthusiasm into Venezuela, but will they be able to do the same away from home? Doubts are justified given the current away record of the Wine Reds. Nevertheless, the lack of pressure and the fact that they can only surprise should certainly speak for a bold(er) offensive game. Therefore, a prediction on goals by both teams in Uruguay against Venzuela seems quite interesting. The odds offered of over 2.60 definitely have value to offer