Has Brazil already digested the recent draw?

After three days of matches in World Cup qualifying on the South American continent, so far only the reigning world champions have come through their first three group games unscathed. Brazil, on the other hand, the second-best team in the rankings, has already lost its way and went winless on the last matchday. In what was supposed to be a must-win game against Venezuela, they only managed one point.

The chance to make amends is now at the away game against Uruguay, where the Brazilians are slightly favored according to the best bookmakers. Our Uruguay vs Brazil betting tip is also aimed at the guests, which is mainly due to the recent H2h. Namely, since March 2016, Brazil won each of the last four H2hs against Uruguay.

In the two qualifiers before, Brazil won against Bolivia and Peru, with the “Selecao’s” concentrated offense scoring a total of six goals. All the more surprising, then, was the poor showing against the Venezuelans, where Brazil had a meager xG of 0.83 across the match.

In Uruguay, Brazil has won their last three away matches. In these three encounters, a prediction on Uruguay vs Brazil even paid off with the “Selecao” winning by at least two goals. Betting on this is therefore by no means out of the question this time as well.

Uruguay – statistics & current form

Uruguay have not won a single match in 2026 World Cup qualifying since their successful group opener against Chile. A loss in Ecuador was followed by a draw in Colombia. They conceded two goals in each of the two group matches. It therefore remains to be seen how the Himmelblauen’s defense will now perform against the Brazilians’ concentrated offense.

The last time Uruguay met Brazil, the Uruguayans scored a total of four times. It’s quite possible that the back line will be shown up this time as well. Bets on that have value, especially after the mixed performance against Colombia, where Uruguay narrowly missed defeat. It wasn’t until stoppage time that the equalizer was scored to make the final score 2-2.

Against Brazil, Uruguay will be counting on home advantage. There have been six wins in their last six internationals in front of a home crowd, including a 3-1 victory over Chile in the ongoing 2026 World Cup qualifiers, but it should also be noted that Uruguay have lost their last three home games against Brazil.

No home win against Brazil since July 2001

Nearly 22 years ago, Uruguay last won an international match at home against Brazil. The Himmelblauen are winless in home games against the “Selecao” since then, which is why their role as underdogs in the upcoming match is not surprising at all. However, if you want to bet on Uruguay vs. Brazil, you can pick up odds of up to 4.20.

In the last six international matches of Uruguay, bets on over 2.5 goals paid off five times. The mark of three goals is expected to be cracked against Brazil as well. In seven of the last nine H2hs it was at least the case.

Compared to the starting eleven that was used against Colombia, no major changes are expected on the part of the Sky Blues. In the absence of star players like Cavani and Suarez, Nunez remains set up front. The Liverpool FC attacking star also scored a goal for the Himmelblauen last matchday.

Predicted lineup of Uruguay:
Mele – Olivera, Araujo, Caceres, Nandez – Ugarte – Vecino, Valverde – Rodriguez, Nunez, Pellistri

Brazil – Statistics & current form

Brazil dropped points for the first time in the current World Cup qualifying campaign in a must-win match against Venezuela, of all teams. The “Selecao” picked up only one point against the weakest team in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers in front of a home crowd and even got off lucky. After all, the Venezuelans were an equal opponent throughout the match.

Brazil now hosts Uruguay to round off the international break. The Brazilian national team has won its last three away games against its upcoming opponents and is consequently the favorite at the bookmakers with a German license. In the past, Uruguay was one of the favorite opponents of the Brazilians anyway.

Since the draw (2:2) in the 2018 World Cup qualifiers, Brazil has won each of the last four H2hs. In three of those four encounters, the “Selecao” even prevailed by a margin of two or more goals. Bets on them therefore have value this time around as well, even though Brazil’s offense has been disappointing of late.

Brazil with concentrated offensive power

If you take a look at the squad of the “Selecao”, an act of defiance after the weak performance against the Venezuelans cannot be ruled out. There is enough quality in the Brazilian ranks to do so. The only thing that remains to be seen is who will get the nod on offense. After the mixed performance on the last match day, changes are obvious.

With 79 goals in 127 appearances, Neymar is the best scorer in the Brazilian ranks. The star player of the “Selecao” was involved in five of seven goals in the current World Cup qualifying campaign. Against Uruguay, therefore, Neymar will once again be set in the playing system of interim solution Diniz.

In the last World Cup qualifiers for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Brazil remained unbeaten in all nine away matches of the qualifying phase. The Selecao even won six of the nine matches. It stands to reason that the Brazilians will build on that in this World Cup qualifier.

Predicted lineup of Brazil:
Ederson – Arana, Magalhaes, Marquinhos, Danilo – Guimaraes, Casemiro – Vinicius, Neymar, Rodrygo – Gabriel Jesus

Uruguay – Brazil Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

It will be the 79th match between the two nations. Brazil leads the H2h against Uruguay with a record of 38-19-21. The Brazilian national team has prevailed over the Uruguayan Sky Blues in the last four meetings, including the most recent win (4-1) over the Uruguayans.

The Brazilians also prevailed in Uruguay’s last three away games. In any case, Uruguay has not won a home match against Brazil in almost 22 years.

Uruguay – Brazil Tip

Brazil suffered a major setback on the last matchday of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. Against the underdog from Venezuela, the “Selecao” – a co-favorite for the 2026 World Cup title – only took a point and showed a weak performance, especially in the offense. The division of the points was therefore justified.

In Uruguay, the runners-up in the South American World Cup qualifying group now have the chance to make amends. Brazil has won its last three away games at the Himmelblauen and will therefore go into the upcoming match with a broad chest.

Uruguay have dropped two straight World Cup qualifiers since their successful group opener against Chile. Both group games – a draw against Colombia and a loss in Ecuador – saw the Uruguayans concede two goals each. It’s quite possible that this negative trend will continue against Brazil.

We dare a tip on Uruguay vs. Brazil on the guests and bet five units for it. The best odds for our prediction are offered by Interwetten.