Experience speaks for the Bosnians

Those who like exotic football will get their money’s worth again this week. The first qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League once again features numerous champions from smaller nations. Two of them will face each other on Tuesday afternoon in the Armenian capital Yerevan.

Urartu FC, who surprisingly won the double in Armenia last season, have the home advantage and are back in Europe’s premier club competition for the first time since 2014/15. In the first leg in front of their own fans, however, the Blue and Reds are already being treated as underdogs. On the three-way market, lower odds are being offered between Urartu and Zrinjski Mostar for the away win.

Although the visiting club is probably only a household name for the most die-hard insiders of European football, the Bosnian double winners have attracted attention on the international stage on one or two occasions in the recent past.

Due to the resulting experience advantage and the fact that the players from the south of the country are probably a bit stronger in terms of quality, the first prediction ahead of the Urartu vs. Zrinjski Mostar clash goes more in the direction of the away team, which is also not under quite as much pressure to deliver a good result in the first leg.

Urartu – Statistics & current form

Urartu FC has had an eventful past. Almost exactly ten years ago, the club from the Armenian capital Yerevan would have been relegated to the second division. However, due to the withdrawal of another club, the Blue and Reds remained in the top flight and then improved continuously. Since the change of name from FC Banants to FC Urartu in 2019, at the latest, things have taken a turn for the better.

Nevertheless, it came as quite a surprise that the club not only won the championship last season, but also secured the double by winning the cup. Surprising in the sense that in 2021/22 the red and blue team had to settle for fifth place in the final standings with a total of ten wins (14 draws, ten defeats). In the previous year, 26 (!) full victories and 83 points in total led to the second title win in the club’s history.

Urartu so far without luck on international stage

Coach Dmitry Gunko has certainly played a major role in the meteoric rise of the capital. This is the third stadium in Armenia for the 47-year-old Russian, who once made a name for himself as a long-serving youth coach at Spartak Moscow. The Moscow native, whose playing career took place exclusively in his homeland, has never celebrated a greater success like winning the double in 2023.

As a well-rehearsed team that hardly had any relevant departures in the summer and was able to strengthen itself in certain areas, the Armenian top club now wants to make a splash on the international stage. Whether they will succeed in the end, however, is questionable. In any case, we would not make any predictions in favour of the home team in the Urartu vs. Zrinjski Mostar clash, which is primarily due to the past in the European Cup.

Out of 30 games at UEFA level, 23 have been lost. In their last eleven attempts to qualify for the main competition, the Armenians have always failed in the first round. The same fate beckons in 2023/24, especially as the Red and Blues have scored only one goal in the past nine international first legs. It is therefore also conceivable to check the odds before the Urartu vs. Zrinjski Mostar match that, firstly, not many goals will be scored in total and, secondly, the host may remain without a goal.

Predicted line-up of Urartu:
No information available.

Last matches played by Urartu:

Premier League

• 06/06/2023 – Urartu FC 1 – 1 Ararat Erewan
• 02/06/2023 – Pjunik Erewan 0 – 1 Urartu FC
• 27/05/2023 – Alashkert FC 3 – 2 Urartu FC
• 22/05/2023 – Urartu FC 1 – 0 BKMA
• 17/05/2023 –  Lernayin A. 0 – 4 Urartu FC

Zrinjski Mostar – Statistics & Current form

Last season, Zrinjski Mostar narrowly failed to beat Sheriff Tiraspol in the first qualifying round of the top flight. The Bosnians lost 0:1 against the now very well-known Moldovan club after a first leg and a second leg.

Then it was on to the Conference League qualifiers, where victories over Tirana and Qostonai almost brought about a major coup. In the play-offs, however, Mostar lost out on penalties to Slovan Bratislava, who later made it through to the last 16.

Zrinjski Mostar know their way around the European Cup

Because they already reached the third qualifying round of the Europa League in 2020/21 and the team has not changed significantly in recent years, we firmly believe that the Bosnian double winners not only have more experience at this level, but are also somewhat stronger football-wise. These two aspects are therefore veritable arguments that explain why we go with the odds on the visiting team between Urartu and Zrinjski Mostar and see Krunoslav Rendulic’s team slightly ahead.

Apart from that, it should also be noted that the club from the south of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has won five championships in the past seven years, is very dominant at national level. In 33 match days, they conceded only 21 goals. Their strong defence is their trump card, which is why we expect a rather wait-and-see Rendulic eleven on Tuesday afternoon, who will first be eager to hold on to a good result for the second leg.

Expected line-up of Zrinjski Mostar:
No information available.

Last matches played by Zrinjski Mostar:

Premier League

• 28/05/2023 – FK Tuzla City 3 – 0 Zrinjski Mostar
• 21/05/2023 – Zrinjski Mostar 2 – 1 FK Leotar

Cup

• 17/05/2023 – FK Velez Mostar 0 – 1 Zrinjski Mostar

Premier League

• 12/05/2023 – Sloga Doboj 1 – 3 Zrinjski Mostar
• 06/05/2023 – Zrinjski Mostar 4 – 1 Sloboda Tuzla

Urartu – Zrinjski Mostar Direct comparison / H2H balance

Unsurprisingly, these two clubs have never crossed paths before. But that will change on Tuesday. The second leg, after all, takes place next week in Mostar, Bosnia.

Urartu – Zrinjski Mostar Tip

There are plenty of exotics in the early qualifying rounds for the UEFA Champions League. National champions from the Faroe Islands, Malta, Luxembourg and Kosovo are all in the mix. Because the most important clues regarding the form of the teams are still missing before the start of the national leagues and the general performance is difficult to assess, the corresponding bets are very complicated.

In many cases, it will be a good option to focus on under-quotes, as the respective teams are unlikely to take big risks, especially in the first legs. Also between Urartu and Zrinjski Mostar, the betting odds on under-goals seem very interesting, especially since no serious difference in quality between the clubs is to be expected.

But because even the under 2.5 is offered at very low odds, we have decided to place a combined bet on Urartu vs. Zrinjski Mostar that the visitors from Bosnia & Herzegovina will not lose and that a maximum of three goals will be scored in regulation time. Betano offers a solid 1.75 for this, which we play on with five units.