Tricky task for the Red Bulls
For RB Leipzig, the Champions League league phase ended with another setback. The Saxons lost 1-0 to Sturm Graz and thus finished the round in 32nd place out of 36. Before they can do better next time, the first step is to lay the foundation for participating in the CL league phase again. For this to happen, the tip for an away win for the Red Bulls should ideally come true in the game between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig. However, the Red Bulls have only won one of their last five Bundesliga games (two draws, two defeats).
However, the record of the Irons is not much rosier either, with just one victory in their last twelve Bundesliga games (three draws, eight defeats). In principle, the forecast for Union Berlin against RB Leipzig tends to favor the guests, who have not only remained unbeaten in the last three duels with the Köpenickers from the east (two wins, one draw), but have also not conceded a single goal in any of the three games.
Nevertheless, it should not be ignored that FCU, under Steffen Baumgart, beat the in-form 1. FSV Mainz 05 2-1 in their last home game. It is true that the Irons have not scored in three of their last four league games. However, the basic building blocks for a point win are definitely there, especially since the Saxons have occasionally lacked consistency in 2024/25.
Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig prognosis AI
From time to time, our human prognosis matches that of the supercomputer BETSiE. Sometimes both betting recommendations complement each other well. And sometimes the approaches are a little different. In rare cases, however, the betting recommendations of humans and machines are mutually exclusive – and that is precisely the case in this top game of the week.
While we assume that a maximum of one team will score, the AI prediction for Union Berlin against RB Leipzig is that there will be goals on both sides. BETSIE finally calculates an expected goals value of 1.10 for the Irons and 1.32 for the Saxons. However, this also means that the AI does not expect a goal festival, because the combined xG of 2.42, for example, would also be below the threshold of 2.5 goals, which is why the under bet could be an alternative to somehow reconcile the human tip with the AI tip somehow after all.
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
After almost being relegated and finishing a disappointing 15th in the final table of the 2023/24 season, 1. FC Union Berlin actually wanted to have a quieter season in the top flight of German football again. However, with only 20 points from 19 games, the Berliners are once again only in 14th place.
Even the recent change of coach did not bring about any real turnaround. Just when it looked as if Steffen Baumgart had settled in as FCU coach and the Irons were able to notch up a surprising 2-1 home win over 1. FSV Mainz 05, the capital city club went down 3-0 at FC St. Pauli just one week later. Overall, they have only recorded one win in their last twelve Bundesliga games (three draws, eight defeats).
Union Berlin with big problems in offense
Thus, at Union Berlin against RB Leipzig, the odds are against Baumgart’s team winning at home. Merkur Bets offers odds of 3.18 for Tip 1 and, in addition to a 100% cashback bonus of up to €60, also offers a €40 freebet with the Merkur Bets new customer bonus, which makes it easier to play out such high-risk tips.
However, the Irons need to work on their offensive power above all. The fact that they have only scored 16 goals is also the lowest in the league, as is their miserable conversion rate of just 9.1 percent. The Berliners have already gone eight times – including three times in the last four league games – without scoring in the 2024/25 league season.
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
RB Leipzig remained title-less for the first time after two overall victories in the DFB Cup last summer, but qualified again for the Champions League. However, the Red Bulls then experienced a real debacle here. Seven of the eight matches in the league phase were lost (one win), meaning that RBL is now out of Europe.
Now the Rose team can fully concentrate on the league. However, in the Beletage of German football, there was also only one win among the last five games (two draws, two defeats). As a result, the Saxons are currently only in fifth place.
Is RB Leipzig lacking consistency?
Nevertheless, the tip for the away game against Union Berlin is that the Red Bulls will win, given the better overall performance. This is mainly because RBL know where the opponent’s goal is. The ten goals scored in the 2025 calendar year are only topped by Bayern Munich (eleven) in the league, while the conversion rate of 21.5 percent is the third-best in the Bundesliga.
The Saxons have also kept a clean sheet on eight of the first 19 matchdays, which would be the basic requirement for a valuable away win against Berlin, who are weak in offense. And yet: the 1-0 defeat at Sturm Graz on Wednesday evening in the premier class once again showed how little goes right for RB Leipzig on bad days. The Rose XI, who are currently playing their third-weakest Bundesliga season of all time, will therefore have to dig deep to get the result they are hoping for at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
Union Berlin – RB Leipzig Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 6 – 2 – 8
A total of 16 competitive matches have taken place between the two sides so far, with RB Leipzig leading the direct comparison with eight wins. The Red Bulls have not lost to 1. FC Union Berlin in any of their last three Bundesliga games (two wins, one draw), keeping a clean sheet three times in a row. However, the first leg at the Red Bull Arena ended in a goalless draw.
Union Berlin – RB Leipzig Tip
Although the betting odds are in favor of RB Leipzig against Union Berlin, which is certainly an understandable assessment. However, this game will certainly not be a sure-fire win for the Red Bulls, who are not in great form themselves, especially since RBL already failed to get past a 0-0 draw against the Irons in the first leg. Contrary to the AI forecast, we do not expect a goal festival at the An der Alten Försterei stadium, but rather a close result. We also do not consider another goalless draw to be completely unlikely.
It is striking that the Berliners are having a hard time scoring goals and are converting their chances poorly. In view of the fact that the Saxons already have eight clean sheets, the prediction for Union Berlin against RB Leipzig is that the capital city team will score, but not by much.
