Will Union exacerbate the RBL crisis?
The 14th matchday in the Bundesliga opens this time with a duel from the east of the republic. Union Berlin will face RB Leipzig and, according to the odds, are surprisingly clear underdogs. This assessment is unexpected, as the Eisernen are currently even ahead of the reigning runners-up in the standings and also have an impressive home record.
Coach Urs Fischer’s side have lost only one of their last 23 home games and celebrated a remarkable twelve victories in that period. However, the memories of their upcoming opponents are not exclusively positive, as the 4-0 defeat in their first Bundesliga encounter in August 2019 was the highest home defeat ever in the Köpenicker’s three-year history in the first league.
In addition, for a meaningful forecast between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig, it must be taken into account that the Saxons have a lot going on at the moment. Due to an unclear infection, a training session even had to be cancelled during the week. On Friday evening, the second assistant, Marco Kurth, will deputise for his two bosses Jesse Marsch and Achim Beierlorzer. The omens for the first away win this season are therefore not particularly good.
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
The important Conference League match next Thursday against Slavia Prague is already casting its shadow. The Eisernen absolutely need a three-goal win then to be allowed to spend the winter on the international stage. On Friday evening, however, Urs Fischer’s team also has a hot match on the agenda in the Bundesliga. In front of an admitted 13,506 spectators, the capital club receives the struggling Leipzig team.
The Köpenicker have no need to hide at all, after all, with 20 points after 13 matchdays, the current sixth-placed team is once again playing a decent season. For the first time in Bundesliga history, the Berliners will even enter the clash with the Champions League participants from the central city as the better-placed team.
Union builds on outstanding home record
Apart from that, the home strength of Fischer’s eleven is also a weighty argument for refraining from betting in favour of the supposed favourites on Friday night between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig. As mentioned in the introduction, the 2:5 defeat at the end of October against record champions Bayern was the only defeat among the last 23 Bundesliga home games! Even better: In four of the most recent five games at the Alte Försterei, the iconic Unioners were even able to keep their clean slate. Around a fortnight ago, Hertha were beaten 2-0 in the capital derby.
Because the Eisernen have never conceded two defeats in a row this season and have generally only suffered two defeats in the past eight matches, we are confident that the Berliners will pick up at least one point in the Bundesliga on matchday 14.
Once again, they can rely on the high-quality attacking duo of Kruse/Awoniyi. With 13 goals each, the two offensive players share the title of record scorers in the German top flight. Otherwise, things are looking really good in terms of personnel. For the upcoming games, coach Urs Fischer can draw on a full complement of players. All players are fit and eager to play.
Predicted Union Berlin line-up:
Luthe – Friedrich, Knoche, Baumgartl – Trimmel, R. Khedira, Prömel, Gießelmann – Kruse – Becker, Awoniyi
Last matches played by Union Berlin:
1st Bundesliga
11/28 2021 – Eintracht Frankfurt 2 – 1 Union Berlin
Europa Conference League Grp. E
11/25 2021 – Maccabi Haifa 0 – 1 Union Berlin
1st Bundesliga
11/20 2021 – Union Berlin 2 – 0 Hertha Berlin
11/07 2021 – 1. FC Cologne 2 – 2 Union Berlin
Europa Conference League Grp. E
11/04 2021 – Union Berlin 1 – 2 Fey. Rotterdam
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
In many respects, the tree is already burning in Leipzig three weeks before Christmas. On the one hand, things are not going well at all in sporting terms. 18 points after 13 match days means the weakest yield in their own Bundesliga history. Never before have the central cities only been in eighth place at this “late” point in the season. The 3-1 defeat at home to Bayer Leverkusen the previous week almost broke the camel’s back.
On the other hand, a problem not of their own making is currently causing a bad mood at the reigning runners-up. Due to various positive tests, several professionals and also the coach will again not be available on Friday evening. Jesse Marsch, who had already fallen out of favour with many supporters, was replaced by Achim Beierlorzer the previous week, but after Beierlorzer’s infection, two other coaches – assistant Marco Kurth and U19 coach Daniel Meyer – will have to take over. Of course, this back and forth does not ensure calm and security.
Leipzig personnel problems and away weakness
A further complicating matters is the fact that the Saxons simply can’t get a leg up away from home in the Bundesliga. In six away games this season, there have been three draws and three defeats. On a season-long basis, the Bullen have been waiting for a win away from home for nine games (negative record). Only the last-placed team from Fürth has so far recorded fewer points in opposing stadiums than the ambitious central city side.
In view of the aforementioned points, we think it is a negligent assessment to put RB in the role of favourites. Between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig, the odds on the double chance 1X therefore include a promising value.
Kurth and Meyer, who incidentally both have a past with FC Erzgebirge Aue, will have to do without regular keeper Gulacsi, Dani Olmo, Halstenberg, Novoa, Poulsen, Orban, Saracchi and Simakan on Friday evening. Changes compared to the defensively weak performance against the Werkself are to be expected. Haidara or Szoboszlai are potential candidates for a starting eleven.
Predicted line-up of RB Leipzig:
Martinez – Mukiele, Klostermann, Gvardiol, Angelino – Laimer, Kampl – A. Haidara, Forsberg – Silva, Nkunku
Last matches played by RB Leipzig:
1st Bundesliga
11/28 2021 – RB Leipzig 1 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen
Champions League Grp. A
11/24 2021 – Club Brugge 0 – 5 RB Leipzig
1st Bundesliga
11/20 2021 – Hoffenheim 2 – 0 RB Leipzig
Club Friendlies
11/11 2021 – RB Leipzig 2 – 1 FC Eilenburg
1st Bundesliga
11/06 2021 – RB Leipzig 2 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
Union Berlin – RB Leipzig Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
The two eastern clubs have faced each other four times in the Bundesliga so far. Three times RB Leipzig was able to keep the upper hand. However, the Eisernen won the last home match at the Alte Försterei with a score of 2:1, which means that the Berliners have only lost one of four competitive matches (including the 2nd Bundesliga) at home to RBL.
Goals are also guaranteed in this pairing, as the Bullen have scored in all eight of their matches so far. In six of these eight cases, the bet on the over 2.5 would have gone through.
Union Berlin – RB Leipzig Tip
Under normal circumstances or in normal form for both teams, it would be perfectly understandable if lower betting odds were offered on the Saxons between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig. In view of the current situation, however, the bookmakers’ assessment is incomprehensible to us.
Leipzig have not won any of their last nine away games in the Bundesliga, are playing their weakest season since promotion to the top flight and have to do without a coach, co-coach and many important players. In addition, the Eisernen are an opponent who is extremely strong at home and have not conceded a goal in four of the last five games at the Alte Försterei.
For us, it is therefore logical to recommend a tip on the double chance 1X in the duel Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig. We find it hard to imagine the struggling Bullen, who were shown the limits at home by Leverkusen the previous week and even had to skip a training session during the week, setting off fireworks and winning an away game for the first time in many months.
Instead, we are leaning towards an exciting 1.93 for the Fischer eleven to remain without defeat at home once again and defend their lead over the central cities in the standings. Six units at stake are justifiable. Alternative suggestions can be found above under the top tips for this Friday evening match.
