Which team has made better use of the winter break?
We have rarely seen truly shocked faces at Union Berlin in recent years. Exactly that changed abruptly a few days ago when coach Urs Fischer was informed by his manager that Borussia Dortmund had pulled the exit clause for Julian Ryerson and that the Norwegian all-rounder would be moving to BVB with immediate effect.
But with the likes of Kruse, Prömel, Lenz and Andrich leaving the capital club in the recent past and the Eisernen always coming back stronger, we are very curious to see whether the Europa League sixteenth-finalists can carry the level from the season so far into the new calendar year.
The first clue will come next Saturday when Union Berlin meet Hoffenheim. A bet on the outcome of the match is definitely associated with a certain risk.
The fact is that both teams were struggling with a real dip in form just before the World Cup break. The Berliners recorded just a single point from their final three Bundesliga matches, while TSG even went winless in five consecutive league games and slipped down the standings.
Combined with the home advantage at the Stadion an der alten Försterei, it therefore still seems a viable option to tip the odds in favour of the hosts between Union Berlin and Hoffenheim.
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
For several matchdays, Union Berlin were at the top of the Bundesliga table in the first part of the 2022/23 season. After the 2-0 home win on matchday ten, for example, the Eisernen were still four points clear of second-placed Munich in the standings. In the meantime, Fischer’s team has slipped to fifth place and is seven points behind the Bavarians.
In view of this development, it quickly becomes clear that the capital club had to cope with a clearly descending form curve, especially in the games before the World Cup break. Only one of the last five Bundesliga matches was won. Among others, they suffered defeats in Freiburg, Bochum and Leverkusen, some of which were significant.
Union relies on rest and home advantage
14 goals conceded in the review of the five aforementioned matches were aggravating and sometimes lead to the conclusion that after a very intense period with a triple load, the forces simply dwindled. In the peak phase of the first half of the season, defence was actually the strength of the team from Köpenick, which, significantly, still has the third-best defence in the German Bundesliga.
Because the problem of a tired team should have disappeared into thin air with the long winter break and the Eisernen are already without defeat for 13 home games in the Bundesliga (nine wins, four draws), we are confident that the odds on the home win or at least the double chance 1X will pay off between Union Berlin and Hoffenheim.
A corresponding bet can also be combined with the Under 3.5, as only two of the eleven matches played at the Alte Försterei in 2022/23 resulted in more than three goals. In terms of personnel, coach Fischer, who is still considering signing a Ryerson replacement without further ado, cannot draw from a full complement. Diogo Leite is missing due to a red card. Schäfer and Thorsby are definitely out. There is a question mark over whether Sven Michel will play. The attacking player, like some of the Union pros, was struggling with flu symptoms during the week.
Predicted line-up of Union Berlin:
Rönnow – Baumgartl, Knoche, Doekhi – Trimmel, R. Khedira, Gießelmann – Haraguchi, Haberer – K. Behrens, Becker
Last matches played by Union Berlin:
Club friendly matches
14/01/2023 – Union Berlin 3 – 1 Zilina
07/01/2023 – Union Berlin 4 – 1 Augsburg
07/01/2023 – Union Berlin 1 – 0 Augsburg
21/12/2022 – Union Berlin 3 – 2 St. Pauli
17/12/2022 – Union Berlin 4 – 1 FC St. Gallen
Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form
Similarly to Union Berlin, TSG Hoffenheim also left a very passable impression in the first third of the season. Initial fears that Andre Breitenreiter would need a little more time to implement his ideas within the team were not confirmed at first. The Sinsheim team played very attractive football and won four of the first six league games.
However, after 15 matchdays, the Kraichgauer have only five victories to their name, which means that they have only won one of their last eight league games. TSG have slipped to eleventh place and have the same number of points on their account as Bayer Leverkusen, for example.
Hoffenheim winless since mid-October
After only a single point from the past five Bundesliga matches, it will be exciting to see how the kickers from the Rhine-Neckar region now start the new calendar year. Especially defensively, there is a lot of room for improvement. In the course of the aforementioned winless streak, the team conceded a total of twelve goals in five matches before the winter break, two more than in the previous ten games.
Coach Breitenreiter will have focused on working against the ball in the winter preparation, which is why we do not expect the back line around keeper Oliver Baumann to be so vulnerable again.
Can Dolberg compensate for the Rutter departure?
Perhaps it also helps in this context that TSG is actually the only Bundesliga team this season that has not yet conceded a single headed goal. Especially against the best header team in the league, from Berlin-Köpenick, this could become a not insignificant factor and increase the likelihood that the odds on sub-par goals come true on Saturday between Union Berlin and Hoffenheim.
In terms of personnel, the departure of Georgino Rutter to Leeds United hurts. As a replacement, Danish international striker Kasper Dolberg is expected to return to his old strength in Sinsheim. Grischa Prömel and Jacob Bruun Larsen will miss the weekend due to injury. Andrej Kramaric will also be out at short notice, with Dabbur available as an alternative. Also likely to start is Christoph Baumgartner, who scored his first Bundesliga goal against the Eisern in December 2019 and leads the internal TSG scorer list with four goals and three assists.
Predicted line-up of Hoffenheim:
Baumann – Kabak, Vogt, Nsoki – Skov, Geiger, Stiller, Angelino – Kramaric – Baumgartner, Dolberg
Last matches played by Hoffenheim:
Club friendlies
14/01/2023 – Mainz 05 2 – 2 Hoffenheim
09/01/2023 – Hoffenheim 3 – 1 Servette FC
06/01/2023 – VfL Wolfsburg 3 – 2 Hoffenheim
20/12/2022 – Hoffenheim 3 – 3 Greuther Fürth
17/12/2022 – Hoffenheim 3 – 2 1860 Munich
Union Berlin – Hoffenheim Direct comparison / H2H balance
The two clubs have played six matches in the Bundesliga so far. The balance is completely even, with two wins and two draws each. However, Union’s two defeats came in their debut season in 2019/20, meaning that the Ironmen have not lost any of their four most recent encounters. In pre-season, the capital club prevailed 2-1 at home and earned a 2-2 draw at Sinsheim.
Union Berlin – Hoffenheim Tip
Finally Bundesliga football again! Also for Union Berlin and TSG Hoffenheim the re-start after a more than two-month winter break is coming up this weekend. Both clubs thus had a very long time to digest the dip in form immediately before the World Cup. Union remained winless three times in a row, TSG even recorded only one single point from the past five (!) league games.
For the upcoming clash at the “Alte Försterei”, however, the statistics from last year are no longer of great significance. It is more important to know that the Eisernen are unbeaten in 13 home games in the top flight and have only lost one home game in the calendar year 2022. Since it can also be assumed that the Fischer team will once again bring a different energy to the pitch than in the autumn, we do not believe that this series will end prematurely.
In our eyes, it therefore makes sense to combine the betting odds for the double chance tip 1X with the under 3.5 between Union Berlin and Hoffenheim. Betano offers a peak of 1.88 for this. We choose six units as the stake.
