Will BVB end the English week in style?

After the Champions League spectacle during the week, Borussia Dortmund is already back in action at the national level on Saturday afternoon. The black and yellow’s journey takes them to the Alte Försterei in Köpenick for the Bundesliga’s 6th matchday. There is no question that coach Nuri Sahin’s team expects a completely different game there than in Tuesday’s Champions League game. Nevertheless, there is a good chance that a bet on the reigning CL finalist will also pay off between Union Berlin and Dortmund.

On the one hand, the self-confidence gained from scoring eleven goals in the past 180 minutes across all competitions speaks in favor of this. On the other hand, however, so does BVB’s good record against the Iron. Borussia has won six of the last seven direct duels. To get a full picture and ultimately be able to make a suitable Union Berlin vs. Dortmund prediction, it must also be noted, however, that coach Bo Svensson’s men have won both of their home games so far this season.
When the black-and-yellow supporters see Bo Svensson on the sidelines, nightmares or at least strong emotions are inevitable anyway. After all, it was the Danish coach who snatched a point from FSV Mainz 05 in the 2022/23 championship final at Signal-Iduna-Park, thereby making FC Bayern champions…

If we look at the odds in the three-way market before the kick-off of the game Union Berlin against Dortmund, the role of favorites in favor of the black and yellow becomes obvious.

Union Berlin – Statistics & current form

Compared to the weak last season, those in charge in the capital can be absolutely satisfied with the start to the new 2024/25 season. Eight points after five matchdays played is the second-best start to the Bundesliga season in the club’s history. Last week’s 1-0 defeat in Mönchengladbach was their first loss, but it was extremely unfortunate given that the only goal was scored in the last minute of injury.

Can the Union defense hold out against the offensive power of BVB?

In particular at home, the current ninth in the table has already proven that the Irons are a force to be reckoned with again this season. The Berliners celebrated two victories against St. Pauli (1-0) and the out-of-form TSG Hoffenheim (2-1). However, three consecutive home wins at the beginning of a new Bundesliga season have never been achieved by last year’s Champions League participants. If we are to believe the Union Berlin vs. Dortmund betting odds, this should remain the case after Saturday, as the probability of another home win is currently estimated at a meager 27%.

The approach that Bo Svensson and his team will take at the weekend is likely to be a rather defensive one once more, because a return to the old virtues was clearly at the forefront of the former Mainz coach’s mind in the first few months of his tenure. With a high level of running commitment, a lot of effort and an irrepressible will, the red-and-whites want to compensate for any quality disadvantages and become an uncomfortable opponent again.

The goal difference in particular underlines this approach, which is associated with efficiency and cleverness in a positive sense, but in a negative sense is often equated with minimalism or pragmatism. In fact, with four goals scored, the Irons currently have the weakest offense in the Bundesliga, but with three goals conceded, they also have the second-best defense. A goal spectacle is therefore not to be expected at the Alte Försterei on Saturday afternoon. Between Union Berlin and Dortmund, a forecast for under 2.5 goals could be crowned with success.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Anyone who saw BVB in the first 30 minutes of the home game against VfL Bochum in the previous week and even had to fear that the 0:2 would not be 0:3 after an early 0:2 deficit would probably not have believed in the remotest sense that the black and yellow would be showered with praise just eight days later. First, Borussia turned the aforementioned deficit in the Ruhr Valley derby into a 4-2 triumph and then flexed its muscles again on Tuesday evening with a 7-1 home win over Celtic Glasgow. With a goal difference of 10-1, last year’s finalist is currently even leading the 36-club league phase in the premier league!

BVB have not won away from home in the BL for almost half a year

The team of coach Nuri Sahin should definitely not lack self-confidence, although it should not be ignored that their performances at home have so far been very different from their performances away from home. Across the season, BVB has been waiting for an away win in the Bundesliga since April 2024. In the last four matches in opposing stadiums, only one out of a possible twelve points was won. The last away game at VfB Stuttgart was lost 5-1 without a chance.

So why back the black and yellows in the game between Union Berlin and Dortmund on Saturday? On the one hand, because BVB have won six of the last seven direct duels against the Irons. On the other hand, because of the outstanding offensive of the title contender in the Bundesliga.

Karim Adeyemi will not be available due to injury after his strong start to the season with five Bundesliga scorer points and a hat-trick against Celtic Glasgow. However, there is much to suggest that new signing Guirassy will continue his great run. In 53 Bundesliga appearances after his return to Germany in September 2022, Guirassy scored a whopping 42 goals. Last season, he gave Stuttgart a 1-0 lead in both legs against Union.

Union Berlin – Dortmund Head-to-head / H2H record

The clubs have met ten times in the Bundesliga so far. With seven wins and three defeats, the black and yellow team has a relatively clear lead in the direct comparison, and has also won six of the last seven meetings. Last season, BVB won 2-0 at the Alte Försterei. At home, they even managed a 4-2 victory.

Union Berlin – Dortmund Tip

After a decent start to the season with ten points from the first five league games, Borussia Dortmund is finally looking to get its first away win in the capital. While Guirassy, Gittens and Co. have already shown some fireworks in their own stadium, they will need to get a win on the road on Saturday if BVB wants to stay in touch with the top position.

However, the opponents are a tough nut to crack, as the Irons from Berlin-Köpenick have won both of their home games so far and, with only three goals conceded, have one of the best defenses in the top flight. That said, the red-and-whites have not looked good against Borussia recently. The same applies to coach Bo Svensson, who has never won in six Bundesliga games against the black-and-yellows (0-2-4).

Despite the Adeyemi injury and the double burden, we see advantages for the guest from Westphalia and are therefore offering odds on the away win between Union Berlin and Dortmund. For the isolated three-way bet, 2.15 is offered as the highest odds. Our stake is five units.