Does BVB lose touch with leaders Union?
In England they like to talk about “Super Sunday”. Here in Germany, however, football fans can also look forward to a “Super Sunday”. It’s not just the fact that, due to the European commitments of numerous teams, three matches from the top flight are on the programme that is causing a frenzy, but also the scheduling. It is not often that the top four in the standings face each other in direct duels on the same matchday.
The first match is Union Berlin against Dortmund. According to the odds of the bookmakers with a German licence, the Black and Yellows are the slight favourites, having won their last three Bundesliga matches against the Ironmen. However, because the prices on the three-way market are quite close to each other, the bookmakers are also expecting a competitive match on equal terms.
Defensively has been the big trump card for both teams this season. Although BVB have conceded twice as many goals as the leaders from Köpenick in the first nine matchdays, the footballing approach under Terzic has become different compared to previous years. Perhaps that’s why it’s a smart option on Sunday afternoon to make a prediction on rather few goals in the course of the game between Union Berlin and Dortmund.
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
The 1. FC Union Berlin continues to be quite outstanding in the Bundesliga. 20 points after nine completed matchdays logically mean not only the best yield in the club’s history, but also the place in the sun in Germany’s best football league. Incidentally, since the winter of 2019/20, no other club apart from FC Bayern has been at the top of the table longer than the Eisernen currently are. Since the beginning of September, the capital club has occupied the unaccustomed position.
The main guarantor for the sensational and hardly thought possible success to date is the defence. With only six goals conceded, Union has the most stable defence in the league. The clean sheet has already been kept four times. With Eintracht Frankfurt, only one team has ever been able to score more than one goal against Fischer’s team – internationally or nationally.
Union unbeaten at home in the Bundesliga for eight months
Consistently, bets on the under 2.5 would have gone through in six of nine Bundesliga matches and in four of four Europa League matches. Against this background, the odds on a maximum of two goals after 90 minutes in Sunday’s clash between Union Berlin and Dortmund are also of great interest.
This is also supported by the impressive record in front of the home crowd. The Köpenicker have not lost any of their last ten Bundesliga home games at the Alte Försterei (seven wins, three draws). The last defeat dates back to February 2022 – when BVB, of all teams, won 3-0 in Berlin. However, we almost completely rule out a similar result on Sunday, as the leaders are too mature, cool-headed and experienced this season.
After Thursday night’s important 1-0 home win against Malmö, which kept Christopher Trimmel and Co. in with a chance of reaching the Europa League, the capital club will once again be looking to keep the score as close as possible for as long as possible in the top match against Schwarz-Gelb. Coach Fischer can also rely on a few fresh players. The number of injured players has been reduced recently, so the Swiss football coach will probably rotate some positions again.
Predicted Union Berlin line-up:
Rönnow – Baumgartl, Knoche, Diogo Leite – Ryerson, R. Khedira, Gießelmann – Schäfer, Haberer – Jordan, Becke
Last matches played by Union Berlin:
Europa League Grp. D
14/10/2022 – Union Berlin 1 – 0 Malmö FF
Bundesliga
10/10/2022 – VfB Stuttgart 0 – 1 Union Berlin
Europa League Grp. D
06/10/2022 – Malmö FF 0 – 1 Union Berlin
Bundesliga
01/10/2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 2 – 0 Union Berlin
18/09/2022 – Union Berlin 2 – 0 VfL Wolfsburg
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Borussia Dortmund have collected two points in the English week so far. However, hardly anyone is really dissatisfied with that after the latest two matches – except perhaps Mats Hummels. Of course, this is due to the fact that BVB first came back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 in the top match against FC Bayern and then at least maintained their lead over the Andalusians at home against Sevilla and won the direct comparison.
Before the next top match in the capital, it would be exciting to know whether the coaching team around head coach Edin Terzic would once again consider a point win a success. Given the situation in the standings and the fact that Borussia could already fall seven points behind the Köpenickers in the event of a defeat, we don’t believe that Schwarz-Gelb will take complete risks, accepting a defeat just to win the away game at the Alte Försterei.
The too harmless offensive remains the problem
This subjective approach, coupled with objective facts such as the quite surprising fact that no other team from the top half of the table has scored fewer goals than the reigning runners-up or that four of the five wins in the Bundesliga this season have come by 1-0, supports our decision to push for a bet on the under 2.5 in the match between Union Berlin and Düsseldorf.
We would also be cautious with a bet on Dortmund’s away win, especially as Modeste and Co. have gone winless in two consecutive league games for the first time this season and have even lost twice in a row away from home.
Dortmund strong as hell in the final quarter of an hour
Nevertheless, the mentality and morale of the squad cannot be criticised. After all, eight of the 13 goals scored in the season (!) came from minute 74 onwards, so we think it’s quite possible that the teams will neutralise each other for a long time and nobody will want to make the first mistake
In terms of personnel, coach Edin Terzic still has to do without many important players. Bynoe-Gittens, Dahoud, Haller, Morey and Meunier will be missing. Captain Marco Reus will make his return to the squad. Keeper Gregor Kobel was also back between the posts after injury in Seville last week. How important the Swiss is for BVB is underlined by the fact that no other keeper in the Bundesliga has better statistics. Kobel was able to keep 82% of all balls on his goal.
Predicted line-up of Dortmund:
Kobel – M. Wolf, Hummels, N. Schlotterbeck, Guerreiro – Bellingham, Can – Adeyemi, Brandt, Malen – Moukoko
Last matches played by Dortmund:
Champions League Grp. G
12/10/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 1 FC Sevilla
Bundesliga
08/10/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 2 Bayern Munich
Champions League Grp. G
06/10/2022 – FC Sevilla 1 – 4 Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga
01/10/2022 – 1. FC Köln 3 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
Union Berlin – Dortmund Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Six encounters have taken place between these clubs in the Bundesliga so far. Four of them have gone to the Dortmund side, who have also won the last three direct duels in the top flight. However, both Union victories were celebrated in front of a home crowd, so caution should definitely be advised from the Westphalians’ point of view.
Although the Under 2.5 would have been crowned with success in only one of the six Bundesliga matches mentioned, we are convinced that few goals will be scored on Sunday afternoon. Actually, for the first time, the teams will meet on an equal footing. Better still, Union are even ahead of BVB in the standings for the first time at this point in the season.17/09/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 Schalke 04
Union Berlin – Dortmund Tip
Before the season, Union Berlin had some concerns about whether the double burden of Bundesliga and Europa League would be manageable for the still internationally inexperienced team from the German capital. After the first few months, this question must be answered with a resounding “yes”. All three Bundesliga games that followed international matches were won by the Eisernen without conceding a goal.
On Sunday afternoon, however, a different calibre awaits the Fischer team, which is brimming with self-confidence in view of its ten unbeaten home matches in the Bundesliga in a row and the fact that it has been leading the table for four matchdays. The fact that Union Berlin are even being treated as slight underdogs against Dortmund according to the betting odds is therefore something we can only understand to a limited extent.
Anyway, our first approach is not to bet on the winner. Instead, we look at the number of goals and point to the fact that the best defence in the league meets the most harmless attack in the top half of the table. The majority of the ironclad must-win games ended with the under 2.5. Apart from that, Borussia also picked up their most wins including Clean Sheet.
