Will Union consolidate their CL place?

“Wild, Wild, West”. That could be the headline with reference to the current weeks at 1. FC Union Berlin. After the avoidable 2-1 defeat in Dortmund the previous week, the Eisernen now face VfL Bochum on Sunday before two more clubs from the west of the country, Gladbach and Leverkusen, await. The aforementioned encounter against the relegation candidates from the Pott region is the most feasible task on paper.

On the one hand, of course, because of the fact that coach Urs Fischer’s team will be playing in front of a home crowd at the Alte Försterei. But also because of VfL’s weakness away from home, which has been evident throughout the entire season.

The experts therefore agree that the third-placed team in the table will definitely be the favourites. The best bookmakers are jumping on the bandwagon and are offering low maximum odds of 1.62 for a home win between Union Berlin and Bochum.

The first leg will be remembered fondly by the Blue and Whites in particular. At the end of October, Letsch’s team, who were bottom of the league, sensationally beat the then league leaders from the capital 2-1. For only the second time in history, the Bochum side could land two wins in a row against the cult club from Köpenick. There is no doubt, however, that a prediction of a three-goal win for Union Berlin against Bochum requires a lot of courage to take risks.

Union Berlin – Statistics & current form

For 1. FC Union Berlin, the dream of the Champions League is still alive. Seven matchdays before the end of the season, the Eisernen are still in third place in the standings. The lead over fifth place is four points, but in the best case it should be extended at the weekend.

To do so, the Köpenickers must first and foremost do their own homework. The chances of this are pretty good, which is also reflected in the Union Berlin vs Bochum odds on the three-way market. The probability of a home win is currently rated at 61%. The capital club is therefore the clear favourite in the encounter with VfL.

Union hard to crack at home

This assessment is certainly understandable, after all, the red and whites have been unbeaten at home in the Bundesliga for 19 (!) matches this season. In the current season, Fischer’s team has nine wins and four draws. They have conceded only eight goals, which is the best defensive record of all teams.

The Eisernen have not conceded a goal in front of a home crowd four times in a row in the league. Only FC Augsburg scored twice in early November, the only one of the 13 visiting teams so far to do so in the cult stadium built by fan hands.

Hard work instead of footballing brilliance – rather 1:0 than 4:3

With a total of seven of the nine mentioned home wins this season, the bet on the under 3.5 would thus also have gone through. This is important in that we get incomparably higher odds for a bet between Union Berlin and Bochum combined with this under approach than for the isolated win tip on the three-way market.

However, if you need another building block for your argumentation chain, you should take a look at the header statistics. On the one hand, there is Union, a team that leads the corresponding ranking with twelve headed goals. On the other hand, no other Bundesliga team conceded more goals from headers than VfL (eleven). Coach Fischer, who only trailed for a total of 76 minutes in the 2022/23 home games with his team, can virtually draw from the full range. Special attention will be paid to attacker Kevin Behrens, who already has five goals in 2023, two more than in the entire 2022 football year.

Last matches of Union Berlin:

Bundesliga

• 08/04/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 1 Union Berlin

DFB Cup

• 04/04/2023 – Eintracht Frankfurt 2 – 0 Union Berlin

Bundesliga

• 01/04/2023 – Union Berlin 3 – 0 VfB Stuttgart
• 19/03/2023 – Union Berlin 2 – 0 Eintracht Frankfurt

Europa League Final Stage

• 17/03/2023 – Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 3 – 0 Union Berlin

Bochum – Statistics & current form

VfL Bochum can confidently be called one of the big losers of the past weekend. After seven points from three games, including a surprising home win against RB Leipzig (1:0), the Ruhr team wanted to make a real breakthrough in the fight for relegation at home against VfB Stuttgart, but ultimately lost 3:2 against their direct rivals.

Instead of distancing the Swabians to nine (!) points, VfL’s lead over Stuttgart, now in the relegation spot, is only three points. The spectre of relegation has thus returned to the Ruhr and there are many indications that it will remain there until the end of the season. Especially in view of the difficult remaining schedule. In five of the remaining seven matches, the 15th-placed team will face teams from the top half of the league table.

Bochum have been behind for 662 minutes away from home

While away weakness has been the big issue for the Blue and Whites so far this season, coach Thomas Letsch’s side have recently picked up four points from two away games. In Cologne (2:0) and in Frankfurt (1:1), however, the Bochum side met two insecure teams who could have celebrated victories if they had been a little more efficient with their chances. The Eisernen are a completely different calibre in terms of form, self-image and style of play.

We therefore believe that Letsch’s team will lose out again this time. In our eyes, it is even conceivable that Asano and Co. will remain without a goal of their own, especially since the VfL, with ten goals scored in 14 away games, is the second-weakest away team behind Schalke 04.

To make matters worse, the Blue and Whites have lost their last six competitive games at the Alte Försterei. Our preferred approach is therefore to take a closer look at all the odds between Union Berlin and Bochum that are associated with a positive result for the hosts. The absence of aggressive leader, captain and stabiliser Anthony Losilla, who is serving a yellow ban, serves as an additional argument here.

Last games of Bochum:

Bundesliga

• 09/04/2023 – VfL Bochum 2 – 3 VfB Stuttgart
• 01/04/2023 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 1 VfL Bochum
• 18/03/2023 –  VfL Bochum 1 – 0 RB Leipzig
• 11/03/2023 – 1. FC Köln 0 – 2 VfL Bochum
• 04/03/2023 – VfL Bochum 0 – 2 Schalke 04

Union Berlin – Bochum Direct comparison / H2H balance

There have been three meetings between Union Berlin and Bochum in the German top flight to date. Twice, the capital club prevailed, the first leg in the current season went, as mentioned, with 2:1 to the VfL, who nevertheless always lost out in the last six competitive games at the Alte Försterei. In professional football, the Eisernen have even beaten the Bochum side in their own stadium more often than any other club.

Union Berlin – Bochum Tip

It is definitely a curiosity that Bochum have had more possession than Union Berlin so far this season, have taken more shots on goal and have also created ten (!) more major chances, yet still have 25 points less in the table. While the Berliners, blessed with a brutal effectiveness, are playing for the Champions League, the guests from the pot are solely concerned with staying in the league.

In the duel of the two oldest teams in the Bundesliga, the role of the favourites is therefore clearly distributed. Thanks to an outstanding home record of nine wins and four draws in 13 games at the Alte Försterei and only eight goals conceded, the pointer is clearly pointing in the Köpenicker’s direction. This is also the case with the bookmakers, who are offering betting odds in the region of 1.60 for the home treble ahead of the Union Berlin v Bochum encounter.

Although Letsch’s side recently picked up four points from two away games, the ten goals scored and 36 conceded away from home are emblematic of the fact that for long stretches of the season, nothing has gone right for the current 15th-placed team in the opposition’s stadiums. In addition, the last six trips to the “Alte Försterei” have all ended in defeats. In our opinion, there is almost no alternative to betting on a home win between Union Berlin and Bochum.