Union face complicated test of patience against Arminia
It’s undoubtedly one of the most discussed questions in top-level sport at the moment: 2G or 3G at your own home ground? Union Berlin took a clear position the previous week (for the time being) and rejected exclusive stadium access for vaccinated and convalescent players. Incidentally, this means that the Eisern will not be using the old Försterei to its full capacity. Under 3G regulations, the number of seats available will remain limited.
Purely from a sporting point of view, however, this debate should not affect the performance of the Köpenickers, because even without spectators, the capital club has been very stable at home in recent months The Fischer eleven has now not lost 19 consecutive home games in the Bundesliga. Consequently, Union Berlin will also be favourites against Bielefeld according to the Saturday afternoon odds
The fact that a prediction on a home win in the Union Berlin vs. Bielefeld clash is nevertheless associated with various risks is underlined, for example, by the East Westphalians’ record so far, who have only lost one of their five league games this season and have drawn four times instead.
Moreover, the defence can certainly be seen as Arminia’s showpiece. Similar to FC Augsburg, who were guests in south-east Berlin a fortnight ago and managed a 0-0 draw. Betting on sub-par goals therefore seems quite interesting at first glance.
Germany Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
In terms of results, the international break did Union Berlin no real good. While the Eisernen picked up five points from their first three Bundesliga games and qualified for the Conference League group stage, they have yet to win another game this month. In the league, only one point came out of the two games at home against Augsburg (0-0) and Borussia Dortmund (2-4); at European level, the opening game was lost 3-1 at Slavia Prague.
It is now all the more important for coach Urs Fischer’s team to get back on the road to success on Saturday afternoon and at the same time to gain self-confidence for the upcoming group match on Thursday against Maccabi Haifa. The chances that a bet on a home win between Union Berlin and Bielefeld will pay off are pretty good, judging by the statistics.
Are the Eisern’s statistical home strengths deceptive?
The capital club, which continues to occupy a satisfactory eighth place in the standings, has not lost in 19 (!) home games in the Bundesliga and also recorded the highest win in its own first league history to date against the upcoming opponents from East Westphalia. Last year, the Eisernen won 5-0 at home against Arminia and thus remained unbeaten in their tenth home game against the Bielefelders in the competition.
Despite these arguments pointing to a victory for the favourites at home, it should not be forgotten that Max Kruse and Co. have failed to score twice in four compulsory home games in 2021/22 and that a bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through in three of these four encounters. Incidentally, only one of the four home games so far has been won.
Next test of patience for the Union offence?
In conjunction with the fact that ten of the aforementioned 19 unbeaten BL home games have ended in a draw, that the Köpenicker have never scored more than two goals at the Alte Försterei since November 2020 and that a very defensively minded opponent now awaits, the prediction of a maximum of two goals in the course of the match promises a more attractive value than a tip on the three-way market.
Meanwhile, Swiss coach Urs Fischer can draw on a full complement of players. Changes in the starting eleven compared to the defeat in Dortmund the previous week are definitely conceivable, also with a view to the Conference League match on Thursday.
Predicted line-up of Union Berlin:
Luthe – Friedrich, Knoche, Baumgartl – Trimmel, R. Khedira, Gießelmann – Prömel, Haraguchi – Kruse, Awoniyi
Last matches played by Union Berlin:
Germany Bielefeld – Statistics & current form
An assessment of Arminia’s season so far from Bielefeld is quite complicated. In fact, the East Westphalians currently have just as many points on their account as they did at the same time in the previous season, when they conceded three defeats in the first five matchdays. How can that be? In 2020/21, the four points were collected through one win and one draw; in the current season, on the other hand, there were four draws and only one defeat. The Kramer team is still waiting in vain for a win.
Nevertheless, the coach can be satisfied with the performances, especially defensively. Only in the only defeat against Borussia Mönchengladbach (1:3) did keeper Ortega, who was even linked with a move to FC Bayern in the summer, have to make more than one save. In total, there were only four goals conceded Only four other teams have conceded fewer goals than the 13th-placed team, which can thus rely on a stable defence in the relegation battle in the Bundesliga.
Until now little spectacle in Bielefeld games
The previous week already saw the second goalless draw of the season at home against Hoffenheim. At the same time, it was the fourth of five games in which the 2.5 goal mark was not broken. On average, just 1.4 goals are scored in matches involving Arminia. Accordingly, it is lucrative to play the odds on the under 2.5 between Union Berlin and Bielefeld on Saturday.
Finally, it is worth mentioning an interesting statistic relating to the fact that the East Westphalians have only lost two of their eight away games under Frank Kramer across the season. In five of these eight away games, a maximum of two goals were scored.
So there is a lot to suggest that the Blau-Schwarzen will once again adopt a defensive approach this weekend, want to keep the score as close to zero as possible for as long as possible and could certainly live with a point in the form of another goalless draw. In terms of personnel, the coach is spoilt for choice. Compared to the previous week, not many changes are to be expected. With the exception of Fernandes and Vasiliadis, all players will be available.
Predicted line-up of Bielefeld:
Ortega Moreno – Brunner, Pieper, Nilsson, Laursen – Prietl, Schöpf – Okugawa, Wimmer, Hack – Klos
Last matches played by Bielefeld:
Union Berlin – Bielefeld Direct comparison / H2H balance
The two clubs faced each other for the first time in the Bundesliga last season. Union celebrated an unchallenged 5-0 victory at the Alte Försterei. At the Alm they drew goalless. In a total of 18 second-division games, meanwhile, the balance is six Berlin victories, nine draws and only three Bielefeld trebles.
Arminia have never won an away match in Köpenick in ten attempts. In general, Union is unbeaten in eight direct duels, but has only celebrated two victories in this period. In a review of the past 16 encounters, there has only been one DSC victory.
United Kingdom Union Berlin – Bielefeld United Kingdom Tip
In modern football, pressing is almost one of the most important virtues. Two teams that don’t think much of earlier forechecking face each other in Köpenick on Saturday afternoon. In the PPDA statistics (passes per defensive action), both teams are in a relegation place.
This is one of the reasons why we can expect a clash at the weekend in which not many goals will be scored. The visitors from East Westphalia in particular will do everything in their power to bring their hitherto stable defence onto the pitch at the “Alte Försterei”. Therefore, the betting odds on sub-par goals between Union Berlin and Bielefeld will be of interest.
To delve a little more into the matter statistically, it should be mentioned that just 1.4 goals have been scored in DSC’s five matches this season. Furthermore, the Eisernen remained without a goal in two of four home games in 2021/22 and have never scored more than twice in their own stadium since November 2020.
Therefore, we deliberately refrain from betting on the outcome of the match as a first option and bet on under 2.5 goals in the match between Union Berlin and Bielefeld. At the tested bookmaker ComeOn we get a 1.86 in the top, which is worth a stake of seven units to us.
