Will Tunisia make the play-offs?

Sometimes it just takes time to cross the finish line in a long race. If you don’t want to break any records, then it doesn’t matter when you finish the race first. That’s probably what the Tunisians are thinking at the moment, who were almost in the play-offs of the African World Cup qualifiers back in October, but are now having to tremble until the last game.

The Eagles of Carthage lead the standings with ten points, but surprisingly the team from Equatorial Guinea have caught up before the last matchday and also have ten points. The North Africans’ goal difference is six goals better, however, so a home win of any kind against Zambia on Tuesday should be enough for the Tunisians to win the group.

At the same time, Equatorial Guinea will try everything to make the impossible possible in Mauritania. But the Eagles have everything in their own hands. It would be embarrassing if Mondher Kebaier’s team were to falter in the final stretch. However, the best bookmakers are clearly predicting a home victory in the match between Tunisia and Zambia.

Tunisian victories are also expected in Mauritania and Equatorial Guinea. The North Africans may be weakening at the wrong time, but their recent home strength could still be the deciding factor and that is also why we are leaning towards a home win in the Tunisia vs. Zambia clash.

Tunisia – Statistics & current form

There was really nothing to suggest that the Eagles of Carthage would have any problems in this group. In fact, one could have expected 18 points from six games, because in the last two years the Tunisians have generally delivered top results, even against supposedly strong teams.

Home strong Eagles

So there were only two defeats in the last 19 games. Perhaps the head played a role after they started with nine points from three games in this group stage. They are currently two games without a goal or a win. But the Tunisians are very strong at home. They have won three games to nil at home recently.

We can therefore imagine playing the odds on a home win without conceding a goal between Tunisia and Zambia. However, they had to play away on Saturday and a draw would have been enough for the play-offs at their direct rivals in Equatorial Guinea. However, the Eagles conceded a goal in the final phase and were beaten 1-0.

Now, coach Mondher Kebaier’s main task will be to build up his team so that they are able to show their qualities again. Perhaps former Paderborn player Mohamed Draeger will be an alternative for the starting eleven on Tuesday. In any case, the Tunisians can start with their preferred team.

Projected line-up of Tunisia:
Ben Mustapha – Maaloul, Bronn, Meriah, Kechrida – Laidouni, Sassi, Slimane – Sliti, Jaziri, Khazri – Coach: Kebaier

Zambia – Statistics & current form

The Chipolopolo probably expected a little more in this qualifier, but coach Beston Chambeshi simply doesn’t have the squad together for higher tasks at the moment. Not only did Zambia miss out on making the play-offs, but they will also have to play the spectator role at the Africa Cup in January for the third consecutive time.

Wins only against underdogs

When there has been a victory to celebrate recently, it has tended to be against the small African teams like Botswana or Mauritania. The continent’s big teams usually suffer defeats and that is another reason why we are giving a clear prediction of a home win between Tunisia and Zambia.

After all, the Zambians are travelling with a broad chest, because on Saturday there was a convincing 4-0 victory, albeit at home and against Mauritania. The match-winner was playmaker Fashion Sakala, who contributed three goals. The 1:0 goal was scored by Patson Daka, who is under contract with Leicester City and is probably the star of the team.

Beston Chambeshi will also have to do without a second top player on Tuesday in Tunisia. Enock Mwepu of Brighton & Hove Albion is not available. It is likely that the Chipolopolo will start in Tunisia as they did last time against Mauritania, especially since there is no reason for changes after the good performance.

Predicted line-up of Zambia:
Nsabata – Chiluya, Chanda, Mwape, Silwimba – Bwalya, Banda – Kangwa, Sakala, Musonda – Daka – Coach: Chambeshi

Tunisia – Zambia Direct comparison / H2H Ranking

Tunisia and Zambia have played each other 14 times to date. The direct comparison is clearly in favour of the North Africans. After victories, the score is 8:3 for the Eagles of Carthage. They have also drawn three times. Zambia have now not won a direct match in four games.

The Tunisians won the first leg of the current World Cup qualifiers 2-0 away from home in September, with Wahbi Khazri setting his side on the winning track with an early penalty. However, it took until the 90th minute before Anis Ben Slimane put the lid on the game with his goal for the 2-0 final score.

Tunisia – Zambia Tip

We think the Tunisians have allowed themselves enough weaknesses and will now close the bag in their own arena in Rades. No one will want to look at the game of the competition and therefore we expect the Eagles of Carthage to go full throttle against the Chipolopolo and want to decide the match early on.

We also think a bet on a home win without conceding a goal is conceivable, especially as the Tunisians have managed to do that in their last three home games, as well as in the first leg in Zambia.

Sambia will not want to be shot down, but there is a difference between going into a home match highly motivated and playing a match under test match conditions. We think the home side will not let the group win slip away and have decided to play the betting odds between Tunisia and Zambia on a handicap win (-1.5) for the Eagles.