Can Tottenham win against City for the third time in a row?
On Wednesday, February 26, 2025, the top game in the Premier League between Tottenham Hotspurs and Manchester City will take place. Nevertheless, the roles are clearly defined, because while the Spurs are miles behind their own expectations and only find themselves in the middle of the pack in the top English division, the guests are at least in one of the four Champions League places. For this reason, the Tottenham vs. Manchester City odds of the German betting providers also tend to favor a win for the guest team.
In our Tottenham v Manchester City prediction, we now want to find out how likely a victory for the Skyblues really is. To do that, we first look at the home and away record of the two teams and find that the probability of an away win is perhaps not that high after all. Pep Guardiola’s team have only won five of their 13 away games, meaning they have not won in 62% of their away games. However, this is quickly put into perspective by the fact that Spurs have also only won five of their 13 home games. So, in this comparison, the two clubs are currently almost evenly matched.
Form-wise, it looks quite similar, because both teams were only able to win five of the last ten competitive matches and thus fall short of their own expectations. However, we have to differentiate here, because the Skyblues only lost to top teams like Paris Saint-Germain, Arsenal, Real Madrid and Liverpool. In detail, the Spurs do not look quite as good as the Blues when it comes to form. In view of the performances they have shown so far, the Tottenham vs. Manchester City tip for an away win seems worthwhile.
Tottenham – Statistics & current form
Tottenham will be anything but satisfied with the season so far, because Ange Postecoglou’s team only managed 33 points from the first 26 league games and are therefore only in twelfth place. In addition, Spurs are already eleven points behind the international places and therefore have little chance of qualifying for one of the three European competitions (Conference League, Europa League or Champions League). However, there are still 33 points to be won, so mathematically, anything is still possible. A win against Manchester City would therefore be extremely important, if not essential.
Tottenham with plenty of offensive power
With 53 goals in 26 league games (Ø 2.04), the Spurs have one of the best offenses in the English top flight. In fact, there is only one team, Liverpool FC, that has scored more. It is therefore no surprise that Ange Postecoglou’s men have only gone four times without scoring a goal of their own, putting the ball in the opposition’s net in 85% of games. At home, the rate is even better at 92%. Offensively, the home side could even challenge for the league title. It is therefore quite realistic that even Manchester City will have to play defense at least once.
Tottenham with problems in defense
While things could hardly be going better in offense, the defense has been criticized time and again. Spurs have conceded 38 goals in their first 26 PL games (Ø 1.46) and are therefore only ranked 13th in the league. In addition, Ange Postecoglou’s team have kept a clean sheet just six times, conceding at least one goal in 77% of league games. Surprisingly, the rate is even worse at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, at 85%. Especially against one of the best attacks in the Premier League, keeping a clean sheet is therefore not really likely.
Manchester City – statistics & current form
Manchester City is having a very weak season so far by its own standards. The Skyblues only managed to get 44 points out of the first 26 league games and are therefore only in fourth place. That doesn’t sound too bad at first, but the gap to the league leaders from Liverpool is already 20 points. The championship is no longer an option this early in the season. But it gets even worse, because even a place in the Champions League is far from certain. Even Fulham, currently in tenth place, have only five points less on the board and are therefore still within striking distance. Will the Citizens even miss out on the Champions League at the end?
Manchester City with built-in goal guarantee
With 52 goals in 26 PL games (Ø 2.00), the guests are on a similar level and are therefore also among the best attackers in the English top flight. For this reason, Pep Guardiola’s team have only been held without scoring three times, finding the back of the net in almost 89% of league games. Curiously, the rate is even better away from home, at 92%. However, the offensive line has been significantly weakened by Erling Haaland’s injury, as the Norwegian has already scored 22 goals in the league, making him by far the most dangerous player in the Skyblues.
Manchester City with unfamiliar defensive problems
Offensively, Pep Guardiola’s team is on a par with the best teams in the Premier League. Defensively, however, the picture is different, with the visitors conceding a surprising number of goals (37 in 26 league games, or 1.42 on average). Even teams like Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Everton, Nottingham Forest or Fulham have had to score less often this season. In addition, Pep Guardiola’s team kept a clean sheet only six times and thus conceded at least one goal in 77% of PL games. By comparison, Liverpool have already played eleven times “to zero” and thus almost twice as often as the Citizens.
Tottenham – Manchester City Direct comparison / H2H record
In the analysis so far, the guests seem to be ahead, but how does it look in direct comparison? Here, the two teams hardly take anything from each other, because while Spurs have won 68 duels, the Skyblues have also won only 69 games. In the recent past, the supposed underdogs from London have even managed to win two games in a row, thus giving the big favorites a run for their money. This will be the reason why the Tottenham vs. Manchester City betting odds are still relatively even despite the situation in the table.
Tottenham – Manchester City betting tip
We recommend the Tottenham vs. Manchester City betting tip on “both teams scoring – yes” in conjunction with under 5.5 goals in the game. We hardly need to say anything about the first part of this recommendation, because both teams thrive on their own offense and repeatedly struggle with problems in defense. On the other hand, only 2.5 goals were scored on average in the last four duels, so the line of “under 5.5 goals” pushes our odds again without losing value. We consider results like 1:1, 2:1 or 1:2 to be very realistic.
Match-Facts – Tottenham vs. Manchester City Tip
- Tottenham scored at least one goal in twelve of 13 home games (92%)
- Manchester City found the way into the goal in twelve of 13 away games (92%)
- Both teams clearly have their weaknesses in defense
Alternatively, we recommend the Tottenham vs. Manchester City odds for under 4.0 goals in the game. Here you win the bet if 0 to 3 goals are scored in the game. With exactly four goals, you get your stake back and thus secure yourself additional protection. For us, this is a thoroughly realistic tip, because despite the previous problems in defense, the two teams rarely conceded more than two goals.
