Blues with one leg in the Cup Final
A week ago the Blues already set the course for the final with a 2-0 win over Spurs. On Wednesday night, they now have to make the most of their good starting position in the semi-final second leg of the EFL Cup. Even with a possible defeat, Chelsea can still enter the final of the League Cup on their own.
With the Blues dominating the first leg at will, it seems no surprise that CFC head coach Thomas Tuchel’s side are also favoured in the semi-final second leg against Spurs. Currently, Tottenham vs. Chelsea is only offered odds of 2.60 for tip 2. Bets on this – at least based on Chelsea’s recent record – are obvious.
Competitively, Chelsea have not lost any of their last ten competitive matches. Ahead of the semi-final second leg, Tuchel’s side landed an emphatic home win in their must-win tie against Chesterfield. The Blues rolled over their underclassed opponents 5-1 in the FA Cup and have already warmed up for the London derby.
Against their north London city rivals, the Blues have won the last three derbies. It is quite possible that the current winning streak will be extended on Wednesday night. Especially as Chelsea have already won the first two duels of the season, including the 3-0 away success in the first leg of the Premier League.
Tottenham – Statistics & current form
Once head coach of Chelsea, Antonio Conte has since taken the reins at city rivals Tottenham Hotspur. Just under two months ago, Conte took up the vacant coaching post following the dismissal of Nuno Espirito Santo and led the north Londoners back to success.
The Italian now faces his first setback as head coach of Spurs against his “old love” from London. After all, there was a defeat at the city rivals in the semi-final first leg of the 2021/22 EFL Cup, in which the north Londoners not only missed a goal, but also conceded two goals.
Tottenham can only reach the Cup final after their recent derby defeat with a win by at least three goals. A Spurs win by a two-goal margin – the away goals rule does not apply – will see the second leg between the two London city rivals go into extra time.
Spurs still without a home defeat under Conte
Most encouraging ahead of the second leg of the EFL Cup semi-final is Spurs’ recent home record. Under Conte, Tottenham have won seven out of eight games at home. Only against Liverpool did Spurs miss a home win. The match against the third-placed team in the Premier League ended in a high-scoring draw (2:2).
Statistically, Kane and Co. are among the best-formed teams in the English top flight. Nevertheless, it will be more than risky to predict that Spurs will reach the final against Chelsea. Especially as the Blues are among Tottenham’s fearful opponents anyway. The north Londoners have not won against Chelsea since January 2019.
Complicating matters this week is the absence of their top scorer in Heung-Min Son. Romero, Berwijn and Dier are three more players on the North Londoners’ medical list. Still with rotations last weekend in the FA Cup against Morecambe, Spurs look set to be back at full strength in the EFL Cup.
Predicted line-up of Tottenham:
Lloris – Dier, Sanchez, Davies – Emerson, Hojbjerg, Skipp, Winks, Reguilon – Lucas, Kane
Last matches played by Tottenham:
FA Cup
01/09 2022 – Tottenham 3 – 1 Morecambe
Carabao Cup
01/05 2022 – Chelsea London 2 – 0 Tottenham
Premier League
01/01 2022 – Watford 0 – 1 Tottenham
12/28 2021 – Southampton 1 – 1 Tottenham
12/26 2021 – Tottenham 3 – 0 Crystal Palace
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
The Blues are on course for their first trophy this calendar year. After last week’s comfortable home win, the Blues’ place in the final – at least on their recent record against Spurs – looks to be a mere formality. This would be Chelsea’s sixth successive appearance in one of the two cup competitions – FA Cup or EFL Cup – in the final.
Considering how strong Thomas Tuchel’s team has been in recent weeks, it is not out of the question that Chelsea will also win the semi-final second leg. Since losing to West Ham just under a month ago, the Blues have not lost any of their last ten competitive games.
Overall, the Londoners have a record of 5-5-0 in their last ten matches. Two of the five victories have come in the last two competitive matches, including last weekend’s thumping win over Chesterfield. The Blues now approach the second leg of the EFL Cup with a broad chest.
A clean sheet again against Spurs?
Chelsea remained unbeaten in their last nine city derbies against Spurs in the regular season. The performances in the last four derbies were particularly praiseworthy, with the Blues keeping a clean sheet in the last four matches with Tottenham. It is quite possible that this series will continue this time.
The statistics in the English top flight already show how strong the Blues’ defensive bulwark is. With only 16 goals conceded in 21 match days, Chelsea have the second strongest defence in the Premier League behind the leaders from Manchester. The London defensive bulwark has been particularly brilliant in away games.
In six of the last ten away games, Chelsea have not conceded a goal. Although a number of key players – six in total will miss the cup game – will have to miss the cup game due to injury, Chelsea still have enough quality at the back to defy Spurs’ attack.
Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Kepa – Azpilicueta, Rudiger, Sarr – Ziyech, Jorginho, Kovacic, Alonso – Mount, Havertz – Lukaku
Last matches played by Chelsea:
FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Chelsea London 5 – 1 Chesterfield
Carabao Cup
01/05 2022 – Chelsea London 2 – 0 Tottenham
Premier League
01/02 2022 – Chelsea London 2 – 2 Liverpool FC
12/29 2021 – Chelsea London 1 – 1 Brighton
12/26 2021 – Aston Villa 1 – 3 Chelsea London
Tottenham – Chelsea Tip
Chelsea already ensured a clear balance of power in London in the first leg, picking up a well-deserved 2-0 derby win over Spurs. This was the second time this season that the Blues have beaten Tottenham. Chelsea previously won their first Premier League clash of the season 3-0 away from home.
Tottenham found their way back to success under Conte, who once also coached the Blues from London. Nevertheless, there are few arguments in favour of Spurs reaching the final after their 2-0 defeat at Chelsea. After all, the north Londoners have not won any of their last nine city derbies against the Blues since January 2019.
Likely the negative streak will continue this time around. Tottenham will have to take some risks in the semi-final second leg to crack the Blues’ defensive bulwark. It is quite possible that the visitors will use the free spaces and win the away derby as well.
With a stake of five units, we place our bet on Tottenham vs. Chelsea at odds of 2.60 on a win for the Blues.
