Who will celebrate the perfect start to the new year?
After finishing fourth in the final standings last season, Tottenham Hotspur Football’s goal for the current campaign can only be to repeat or even improve on that placing. At the moment, the Londoners are on a decent path, even though coach Antonio Conte’s charges are in fourth place with a number of top teams breathing down their necks.
It is all the more important for the Lily Whites to do their duty and regularly score three points, especially at home.
Six of the eight games so far in front of their own fans have been victorious. Spurs have not had any problems against clubs from the mid-table. Against this backdrop, there is much to suggest that betting on the capital club will pay off again on New Year’s Day between Tottenham and Aston Villa.
Despite this, coach Unai Emery’s visitors should by no means be underestimated, after all the Spanish football coach has an impressive record against THFC. The four-time Europa League champion has not lost any of his three Premier League games with Arsenal FC. Should that streak continue with the Villans, double chance X2 odds of well over 2.00 are on offer ahead of the Tottenham vs Aston Villa game.
Tottenham – Statistics & current form
The re-start after the World Cup break would certainly have been different for the Tottenham Hotspur Football Club officials. On Boxing Day, Conte’s side were 2-0 down after just over an hour in the city derby at Brentford before a double strike from Kane and Hojbjerg in the space of six minutes still resulted in a 2-2 final score. However, the point was not enough for the high expectations of the Champions League eighth-finalists.
For the upcoming home match against Aston Villa, however, three points are firmly planned. Especially because Spurs have won 12 of their last 14 Premier League matches against their upcoming opponents and can also look back on a strong record on New Year’s Days.
Tottenham continue to struggle with defensive fragility
Seven of the past eight THFC matches played on January 1 have ended on a positive note in the form of three points. Moreover, no other player scored more goals on the first day of the new year than a certain Harry Kane. The Spurs captain has been on the PL scoresheet five times on this special date. If you want to bet that the current second-placed scorer behind Haaland will also score on Sunday, you can only get odds of 1.83 at the top between Tottenham and Aston Villa.
Despite the many positive statistics, there are also factors that speak rather against the capital club. For example, in the last six Premier League games, the Lily Whites were always 1-0 down and always conceded at least two goals. This includes the last three home games, two of which were lost.
For the more risk-averse bettors, it is definitely worth considering a prediction that the underdogs from Birmingham will score the first goal of the match. For this, an attractive 2.75 beckons at the top. For the combined tip on X2 & Over 2.5, meanwhile, even a 5.00 can be dusted off. In as many as three of the past five Tottenham matches, such a bet would have gone through.
Predicted Tottenham line-up:
Lloris; Romero, Dier, Lenglet; Doherty, Hojbjerg, Bissouma, Perisic; Kulusevski, Kane, Son
Last matches played by Tottenham:
Premier League
26/12/2022 – Brentford 2 – 2 Tottenham
Friendly club matches
22/12/2022 – Tottenham 1 – 1 Nice
09/12/2022 – Tottenham 4 – 0 Motherwell
Premier League
12/11/2022 – Tottenham 4 – 3 Leeds
Carabao Cup
10/11/2022 – Nottingham Forest 2 – 0 Tottenham
Aston Villa – Statistics & current form
Unai Emery could have gone down in Aston Villa club history on Boxing Day. The Spaniard would have become the first coach in the club’s history to win all of his first three Premier League games.
After two promising victories before the World Cup break against Manchester United (3:1) and at Brighton (2:1), the Villans lost 3:1 at home to Liverpool, especially in the first half. However, there is not much time to complain, because exactly one week later, the twelfth-placed team in the table will have to face the next top team in the English top flight.
From a purely statistical point of view, it is absolutely understandable that the odds on a home win between Tottenham and Aston Villa are significantly lower. For one thing, the Villans have picked up just six points from their first eight away games this season. Secondly, the last five PL matches in London were all lost. Villa always conceded at least two goals. In none of the past 13 matches in the English capital has a clean sheet been scored.
Aston Villa must improve away from home
Aston Villa have to improve their performance away from home, and the Birmingham club have struggled to get the ball over the goal line. Just five away goals have been scored so far. Two of them, however, were scored in the only PL match under Emery to date, which, as mentioned, was won 2-1 at Brighton.
We would therefore not take the numbers at face value and instead focus on the development under the new coach. Consequently, we trust the underdog to score at least one goal and check the odds for both teams to score between Tottenham and Aston Villa.
It may also help that the best goalkeeper at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar is likely to return between the posts. Emiliano Martinez has ended his party holiday and resumed training. According to rumours, however, his Spanish coach wants to sell the polarising Argentine. Injuries, meanwhile, mean that the absences of Jacob Ramsey and Diego Carlos weigh heavily.
Predicted Aston Villa line-up:
Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Digne; McGinn, Kamara, Luiz; Buendia, Watkins, Bailey
Last matches played by Aston Villa:
Premier League
27/12/2022 – Aston Villa 1 – 3 Liverpool FC
Friendly club matches
16/12/2022 – Aston Villa 0 – 1 Villarreal FC
11/12/2022 – Chelsea FC 0 – 1 Aston Villa
08/12/2022 – Aston Villa 2 – 2 Brighton
01/12/2022 – Cardiff 3 – 1 Aston Villa
Tottenham – Aston Villa Direct comparison / H2H record
For the 149th time, these two clubs face each other in England’s top division. Tottenham clearly lead the direct comparison with 66 wins compared to 50 defeats and 32 draws.
Far more important, however, is a look at recent trends. Here, too, the Villans clearly lose out, having celebrated a total of only two victories in the past 21 Premier League duels. In fact, twelve of the last 14 encounters have been lost by the Birmingham club. However, there is a small glimmer of hope, because AVFC celebrated both of the aforementioned victories in north London.
Tottenham – Aston Villa Tip
Looking at the table, there is a relatively one-sided constellation on Sunday afternoon in the first Premier League match of the new year. Fourth-placed London face twelfth-placed London, who also have just six points and five goals to their name after eight away games. Not surprisingly, the betting odds on a home win between Tottenham and Aston Villa are only around 1.70.
Because we see no value in the three-way bet and are generally not so sure that Spurs will live up to their role as favourites, we can even imagine betting on the double chance X2. In conjunction with at least three goals in the course of the game, there would even be a very lucrative 5.00 to pick up.
Perhaps the best risk-reward ratio ahead of the Tottenham vs. Aston Villa match, however, is to bet on both teams to score. Spurs have conceded at least two goals in their last six Premier League games and have also always conceded 0:1. Villa are on the rise under Emery, who has never lost to Tottenham as a coach, and have enough quality to spring a surprise
