Who will win the North London derby?
Over the course of a Premier League season, there are numerous London derbies. However, the explosive hate duel in the north of the capital between Tottenham and Arsenal enjoys an exceptional position. On Sunday afternoon, it’s that time again. Just over three months after the first leg, which the Gunners deservedly won 3-1 in front of a home crowd, the second leg is now at Spurs’ home ground.
This brings up a very important point, as the Lily Whites have not lost any of their last eight Premier League home games against the visitors from the Islington borough. However, the Gunners have never been in as good a position as they are at present.
The Arteta team continues to lead the standings in the English top flight and will probably be favourites this weekend. Between Tottenham and Arsenal, betting on the away win brings odds of 2.20.
Eleven points currently separate the two teams, even though Tottenham Hotspur Football Club have played one game more. With Harry Kane and Co. losing three of their last four home games at league level and looking unusually vulnerable defensively at times, our first prediction ahead of the north London derby Tottenham v Arsenal is for a three-goal win for the visitors. Can the Gunners beat their rivals in both legs for the first time since 2013/14?
Tottenham – Statistics & current form
There are many levels of unrest at Tottenham Hotspur Football Club at the moment. On the one hand, rumours surfaced during the week according to which a Saudi consortium wants to invest in the London club. On the other hand, there seems to be a lot happening on the inflow and outflow side in the winter. Trossard from Brighton or Edwards from Sporting Lisbon are probably high on coach Antonio Conte’s wish list.
Much more glaring than these sideshows, however, is the overall disappointing sporting situation. Although the Lily Whites narrowly qualified for the last 16 of the Champions League, things are not going well at all for the capital club, especially in the Premier League.
Tottenham with disappointing performances lately
Only three of their last eight league games have been victorious. At home, they have lost three of their last four matches, which is why you should be careful with the odds on the home team between Tottenham and Arsenal. The footballing impressions were also anything but inspiring. In their last PL home game to date, they lost 2-0 to Aston Villa, and in the FA Cup Conte’s team won by the skin of their teeth 1-0 against third division Portsmouth.
It will be particularly important for Spurs to score the all-important 1-0. Only in the last of their last eight Premier League games did Tottenham take a 1-0 lead. Before that, the Lily Whites always fell behind and also conceded at least two goals on all seven occasions. Just how influential the first goal of the day is is underlined by the fact that in 16 of the past 18 league games, the Blue and Whites have left the pitch as winners when they scored the 1-0 goal.
Often it was Harry Kane who opened the scoring. The captain is the offensive life insurance of the fifth-placed team in the table, is already back on 15 goals for the season and is also a real expert when it comes to North London derbies. No other player has scored more often in the explosive city duels against Arsenal than the international (14). In seven of the eight home games against the Gunners alone, Kane got on the scoresheet. Odds of 2.40 are offered for the 29-year-old to score on Sunday.
Predicted line-up of Tottenham:
Lloris; Lenglet, Dier, Romero; Perisic, Hojbjerg, Bissouma, Doherty; Son, Gil; Kane
Last matches played by Tottenham:
FA Cup
07/01/2023 – Tottenham 1 – 0 Portsmouth
Premier League
05/01/2023 – Crystal Palace 0 – 4 Tottenham
01/01/2023 – Tottenham 0 – 2 Aston Villa
26/12/2022 – Brentford 2 – 2 Tottenham
Club friendlies
22/12/2022 – Tottenham 1 – 1 Nice
Arsenal – Statistics & Current form
Among the bookmakers, Arsenal Football Club is not currently considered the hottest contender for the championship in England. In fact, Manchester City are still considered to have the better chances of defending their title. And this despite the fact that the Gunners are still five points ahead of the Citizens in the standings. Arteta’s team would very much like to extend their lead next weekend. The prerequisite for this, however, is an away win in the North London derby.
So far this season, the former English champions seem to be particularly inspired by the capital duels, as Arsenal have won all six London derbies so far. Keeper Ramsdale has not conceded a goal in any of the three away victories. For the first time since 2007/08, the Gunners could even win seven capital derbies in a row. At that time, Arsenal also achieved a league double, i.e. winning both the first and second legs against Spurs.
Is Saka proving to be a derby expert again?
In total, the White and Reds are on 14 wins in 17 matches this season. There have been seven victories away from home in nine attempts. The 22 out of a possible 27 points are enough for the undisputed first place in the away table. The last away match was won 4-2 at Brighton on New Year’s Eve. In the FA Cup, there was an unchallenged 3-0 victory at Oxford United last Monday. Some key players were spared and should return to the team on Sunday.
Martin Odegaard, for example, who leads the internal scorers’ list with twelve goals in the Premier League. Bukayo Saka, who has been involved in more goals in London derbies than any other Premier League player since the start of last season (four goals, seven assists), also has twelve points (six goals, six assists). Should the England international also score against his rivals, odds of 3.65 can be paid out between Tottenham and Arsenal.
Predicted Arsenal line-up:
Ramsdale; Zinchenko, Saliba, Gabriel, White; Xhaka, Partey, Odegaard; Martinelli, Nketiah, Saka
Last matches played by Arsenal:
FA Cup
10/01/2023 – Oxford 0 – 3 FC Arsenal
Premier League
04/01/2023 – Arsenal FC 0 – 0 Newcastle
01/01/2023 – Brighton 2 – 4 FC Arsenal
27/12/2022 – Arsenal FC 3 – 1 West Ham
Club friendlies
18/12/2022 – Arsenal FC 0 – 2 Juventus FC
Tottenham – Arsenal Direct comparison / H2H balance
With 171 encounters in England’s top flight, the North London derby is a true classic. 69 times Arsenal left the pitch as winners, Tottenham were victorious on 55 occasions. 47 draws round off the head-to-head record.
As already mentioned in the introduction, Spurs are now unbeaten in eight Premier League home games against Arsenal (6-2-0). In fact, the Lily Whites have won all of their last three home games. However, there have never been four home wins in a row in the club’s history. The first leg in October, however, was won 3-1 by the Gunners, with Partey, Jesus and Xhaka scoring for Arteta’s side and Harry Kane equalising 1-1 in the interval.
Tottenham – Arsenal Tip
There will be plenty of explosive action in the north London derby on Sunday night. At the end of the 20th matchday in the Premier League Tottenham and Arsenal meet. According to the betting odds, there is much to suggest that the Gunners will win the first and second leg of a season against their great rivals from the capital for the first time in almost ten years. Around three months ago, it was a 3-1 win for the White and Reds. The Arteta eleven also looks more stable and consistent before the reunion.
This assessment is partly due to the fact that Spurs have lost three of their last four Premier League home games, have been a complete disappointment in terms of their football, most recently in the 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa and the lacklustre 1-0 victory over Portsmouth in the cup, and have also conceded at least two goals in seven of their last eight league matches.
The Gunners, on the other hand, continue to lead the standings in England, are the best away team and have also won all of their London derbies so far this season (six). Therefore, it is well worth considering a bet on the away victory.
