Will the out-of-form Nervionenses overcome the hurdle?
Wednesday sees an Andalusian clash in the second main round of the Copa del Rey between two teams who have not fared too well so far in the 2022/23 season.
Hosts Torremolinos surprisingly beat second division side Huesca on penalties in the first round of the cup, but are in a direct relegation spot in the country’s fourth highest division, which is why betting on the visitors in Torremolinos v Sevilla seems practically a no-brainer.
However, the Europa League record winners Sevilla are also struggling mightily. The Nervionenses have won only two of 14 games in La Liga, scored only 13 goals and are also in a relegation spot. Accordingly, the forecast for Torremolinos against Sevilla must at least take into account the possibility that the Andalusian showpiece club will also stumble in the cup.
A further complicating matters is the fact that Sevilla have yet to see a turnaround under new coach Jorge Sampaoli, while after selling out in the summer, the next departures may now even be imminent in the winter. Because the Nervionenses “only” managed a lacklustre 2-0 away win at sixth division side Velarde in the first cup round, we see the greatest value in another low-scoring game.
Accordingly, we recommend betting on less than 2.5 goals, which, by the way, can also be played conveniently via smartphone or tablet.
Torremolinos – Statistics & current form
The Juventud de Torremolinos Club de Fútbol has been in existence since 1958, but has always been a marginal player in Spanish football. In the 1964/65 season, the team, which is based in Torremolinos, Málaga, was promoted to the country’s third highest division for the first time.
However, a total of just four seasons in the third-tier has been recorded in the entire club history of the Verdiblancos, who returned to the fourth-tier last season as champions of the fifth-tier Tercera División RFEF.
The second weakest offense in the league
In the fourth group of the Segunda Federación, things have been anything but smooth for the promoted side, who have won just two of their 15 league games so far (eight draws, five defeats). With 14 points out of a possible 45, the Verdiblancos are in a direct relegation spot.
While the defence is quite solid with “only” 17 goals conceded in the first 15 games, the main shortcoming of the club from the province of Málaga is the use of chances. With only twelve goals scored, Torremolinos have the second weakest attack in the league.
The first win in eleven league games without a win on Saturday
Curiosity is the fact that four of these only twelve goals date back to last Saturday. In a home match against second-placed Recreativo Huelva, the team of coach Ibón Arrieta experienced a real moment of glory and scored a 4:2 victory. It was the first win in eleven consecutive league games without a win.
The team’s potential flashed through at times in this match. However, this does not change the outsider role of the Verdiblancos, who beat second division side Huesca on penalties in the first round of the Copa del Rey. In Torremolinos against Sevilla, the betting odds are clearly against the promoted team from the fourth division.
Predicted line-up of Torremolinos:
Zarco – Urbina – Heredia – García – Portales – Caturla – Castillo – Machuca – Amaya – López – Chamorro
Last matches played at Torremolinos:
Segunda Federacion – Group 4
17/12/2022 – Juventud Torremolinos CF 4 – 2 Recreativo Huelva
11/12/2022 – Mar Menor 0 – 0 Juventud Torremolinos CF
04/12/2022 – Juventud Torremolinos CF 1 – 2 Cartagena B
26/11/2022 – Granada B 4 – 2 Juventud Torremolinos CF
Club friendlies
22/11/2022 – Juventud Torremolinos CF 0 – 3 Hammarby
FC Sevilla – Statistics & current form
Sevilla Fútbol Club is not only a former Spanish champion (1946) and six-time overall Europa League winner (record), but has also won the coveted Copa del Rey five times in the club’s history (most recently in 2010).
The Nervionenses are also a perennial contender in La Liga and have always been in the fight for the top four in recent years. Sevilla also started in the Champions League as fourth in the table, but only finished third in Group G behind Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund.
Only six points from a possible 21 under Sampaoli
Not only did success fail to materialise internationally this season, however. At national level, too, the 2022/23 season has been a mess, mainly due to the big sell-out in the summer. From Koundé to Carlos to Ocampos, several top stars were sold and not adequately replaced. When success failed to materialise, coach Lopetegui was also sacked.
Since October, Sampaoli has been trying to get the Nervionenses back on track, but has not yet been able to turn things around. In seven league games under the Argentinean’s leadership, there has only been one win (three draws, three defeats). The Rojiblancos are therefore still in a direct relegation spot.
Only 13 goals from the first 14 league games
The main problem for the Sevillistas is also their poor use of chances. With only 13 goals from the first 14 league games, Sevilla have the fourth weakest attack in La Liga. This favours our bet on a low-scoring match between Torremolinos and Sevilla.
Finally, the atmosphere in the surrounding area is also problematic. Sporting director Monchi has recently said that the players are not ready to take on the relegation battle, and as a result the key players are being linked with top clubs on a practically daily basis. World Cup discovery Bono is being traded to FC Bayern after Neuer’s injury, while Isco is said to be a topic at Dortmund. That doesn’t exactly clear the head for a complicated cup match at a fourth-division club….
Predicted line-up of FC Sevilla:
Dimitrovic – Nianzou – Salas – Gudelj – Carmona – Fernando – Jordán – Torres – Isco – Suso – Mir
Last matches played by Sevilla FC:
Friendly club matches
16/12/2022 – FC Sevilla 7 – 0 FC Volendam
11/12/2022 – Benfica 0 – 1 FC Sevilla
08/12/2022 – Sevilla FC 1 – 1 AS Monaco
Copa del Rey
13/11/2022 – Velarde Camargo 0 – 2 FC Sevilla
La Liga
10/11/2022 – Sevilla FC 1 – 2 Real Sociedad
Torremolinos – Sevilla FC Direct comparison / H2H record
These two teams have never faced each other in a competitive match. There is therefore no “head to head” data available that could be used in the prediction for Torremolinos vs. Sevilla
Torremolinos – Sevilla FC bet
Prominent departures, form crisis and lack of chances or not: It is clear that Sevilla’s inglorious season would take on new dimensions if the Nervionenses were to now also fail at an amateur team in the Copa del Rey, which as a promoted team is in a relegation spot in the country’s fourth-highest division. It is also clear, however, that the Rojiblancos were only a lacklustre 2-0 winner at a sixth division club in the first round of the cup.
At the moment, we don’t see enough value in a win for Torremolinos. However, we don’t see the Rojiblancos winning by a landslide either. Also in view of the fact that both teams have their problem areas in the offensive, the bet on a low-scoring match suggests itself.
