Welsh showdown in Swansea
Curtain up for the South Wales Derby! On Sunday, the two Welsh representatives from Swansea and Cardiff will meet in the Championship. Both clubs have not had the best start to the season so far and are now languishing in the lower third of the table. The derby hosts from Swansea have at least shown an upward trend in form recently.
As expected, the best bookmakers see the Swans as favourites. For Swansea vs. Cardiff, odds of 2.55 are offered for a bet on the home side. Last season, the Bluebirds beat Swansea in the South Wales derby – can they now score another away coup?
Betting on an away win for Cardiff City will be more than a little risky given the visitors’ current form. After all, the Bluebirds have suffered five defeats in a row recently, including a crushing away debacle against Blackburn Rovers, when Cardiff rang the bell five times in total.
Swansea, on the other hand, have suffered just one defeat in their last six fixtures. The home record this season is also encouraging ahead of the upcoming derby, with Swansea having lost just one of their six home games across the competition.
Swansea – Statistics & current form
Elf matchdays after the start of the season, Swansea City are lagging behind the great expectations in the second highest English division. So far, the Welsh representatives have only been able to record eleven points and are seven points behind the sixth and last place for the promotion play-offs.
It is therefore all the more important to initiate a turnaround this weekend. If successful, the Swans could, in the best possible scenario, close the gap on QPR (6th), who face Fulham (5th) this weekend. The home advantage in the South Wales derby is of great importance.
Head coach Russel Martin’s side have lost just once at home this competitive season. Since the 3-1 home defeat to Stoke City on Matchday 3 of the Championship, Swansea have gone unbeaten at home four times in a row. In fact, the Welsh defensive bulwark has not conceded a single goal in its last three home games.
Will the home record be extended in the Welsh derby?
Last season Swansea lost the home derby against Cardiff with 0:1. The result in favour of the Bluebirds was surprising, as the Swans had dominated the match over 90 minutes. On the other hand, the visitors were much better in their attacking play and made effective use of counter-attacking chances, especially before the change of ends.
This season, Swansea City are out to make amends and are aiming for a home win in the Welsh derby for the first time in almost two years. Against the – at least in recent weeks – offensively weak visitors, the Swans’ defensive bulwark should not have too much trouble.
Compared to the starting eleven that only managed a draw against bottom side Derby before the international break, changes in the starting eleven cannot be ruled out. Head coach Russel Martin will be spared any major personnel worries for the South Wales derby and can draw from the full squad as far as possible
Predicted Swansea line-up:
Hamer; Latibeaudiere, Cabango, Manning; Laird, Grimes, Downes, Bidwell; Paterson, Cullen; Piroe
Last matches played by Swansea:
Cardiff – Statistics & current form
Much like Sunday’s opponents from Swansea, Cardiff meanwhile have just eleven points to their name, with the points haul largely down to their start to the season. Before the international break, Cardiff were in free fall, losing five games in a row. As a result, head coach Mick McCarthy’s side slipped to 20th place.
In a worst-case scenario, another defeat would see Cardiff City drop into one of the three relegation places for the first time this season. The derby against Swansea City is therefore all the more important, especially as Cardiff will move past their Welsh rivals if they are successful. Meanwhile, however, there are few arguments to back up a prediction on the visitors in Swansea vs Cardiff.
Apart from the recent form curve, which does not favour the Bluebirds anyway, the shaky backline is a major argument against an away coup in the South Wales derby. After all, Cardiff have already conceded 19 goals in eleven matchdays. Only second-bottom Peterborough have been more susceptible to conceding.
Will the Bluebirds be overrun by Swansea?
The last time Cardiff played away from home, they suffered a heavy defeat to Blackburn, conceding a total of five goals to the Bluebirds. Before that, Cardiff City lost their away game against Coventry. The South Wales derby is particularly telling for Mick McCarthy, after all the 62-year-old is already on the sidelines.
Another defeat, especially in the prestigious derby, would be the coup de grace for McCarthy. According to media reports, the Irishman has already lost all credit for losing points. It is quite possible that McCarthy will go all-in for Sunday’s game against Swansea and bet everything on a win.
Due to injury, only Joel Bagan will not be available to the coach. Otherwise, McCarthy will be able to draw from the full squad as far as possible. Changes in the starting eleven are not to be expected.
Predicted Cardiff line-up:
Smithies; Morrison, Flint, Nelson; Sang, Vaulks, Pack, Brown; Harris; Moore, Collins
Last matches played by Cardiff:
Swansea – Cardiff Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
This is the 39th time that the South Wales Derby has been played in the Championship. So far, both clubs have recorded 14 victories in the second highest English division, while ten derbies have ended in a draw. The Swans have lost two of their last three games at home to Cardiff in the Championship, including an unfortunate 1-0 defeat last season.
Across competitions, a ‘both score’ prediction on Swansea v Cardiff has not paid off since April 2010. There have now been eight consecutive “BTS: No” between the two Welsh rivals.
Swansea – Cardiff Tip
Swansea are currently in better shape than the visitors from Cardiff. In addition, the Swans benefit from home advantage in the South Wales derby and are keen to make amends after last season’s home defeat. Across the competition, the Swans have not lost for four home games in a row.
Cardiff City, on the other hand, are in free fall and have suffered five defeats in a row. The most serious of these was the away debacle against Blackburn Rovers, in which the Bluebirds conceded a total of five goals and were outclassed by their league rivals.
As in previous seasons, we expect Sunday’s South Wales derby to be a competitive one, but this time the hosts should prevail. With a bet of five units, we dare to bet on Swansea vs. Cardiff at good odds on the Swans.
