Can Sturm Graz turn around the first leg?
Decisions are beginning to fall in the UEFA Champions League qualifying phase. Sturm Graz will try to turn things around after a first leg defeat against Dynamo Kiev and enter the play-offs.
In the run-up to the match between Sturm Graz and Dynamo Kiev, the betting odds show the hosts as favourites. However, this is not too clear, in the first leg showed the quality of the Ukrainian team several times.
With the away goals rule no longer in place, any victory with a one-goal difference will be enough for Sturm Graz to progress to extra time. That is the minimum goal for the Austrians, who want to fulfil their dream of reaching the main round in the top flight.
Sturm Graz – statistics & current form
Sturm Graz with coach Christian Ilzer want to reach the Champions League! The Austrian club has big ambitions, but could only back them up in some short phases in the first leg. The point is, however, that it’s not all over yet. At the weekend, there was a mixed dress rehearsal with a 1:1 away draw against SV Ried. Now, of course, the cards will be reshuffled.
Sturm Graz have played five competitive games this season. Only one of them, the first leg, was lost. The Austrians have never conceded more than one goal in this time, which is why the start can be considered very good. In the cup they won 6:0 and in the league they beat RB Salzburg, which is definitely a sign of things to come. A performance like that against the industry leader is now needed against Dynamo.
The path to success seems to be mapped out. Compactness is important, the defence must not allow too much and the midfield four, which likes to play in a tight diamond formation, must do a lot of running. Offensively, more must come around than in the three league games, when only four goals were scored in total, which is not bad, but not particularly good either. So at the moment it’s difficult to assess where Sturm Graz stand at all.
Sturm Graz: Nuances might be decisive against Kiev
Based on the findings from the first leg and the quality of both teams, this is already shaping up to be an exciting duel in which nuances will be decisive. Who will make more mistakes? Who will miss more? Such factors, just as indeterminable as the luck of the game, will play a role. In any case, Sturm Graz has quite a broad chest, which has also manifested itself in the long run. Three defeats in 14 games is a quite acceptable record across the season.
Compared to the statistics of the last season, the Graz team has made some progress. At that time, they conceded 46 goals in the 32 league games alone, and the defence definitely seems to have improved in the new season. Moreover, Sturm Graz showed in the pre-season how strong they can be at home, scoring on average 0.4 points more than away from home.
The newly won defensive strength should also show in this match. Therefore, our prediction before the match between Sturm Graz and Dynamo Kiev is that less than 2.5 goals will be scored.
Predicted line-up of Sturm Graz:
Siebenhandl – Ingolitsch, Borkovic, Affengruber, Schnegg – Gorenc Stankovic, Horvat, Prass, Sarkaria – Höjlund, Emegha
Last matches played by Sturm Graz:
Bundesliga
06/08/2022 – Ried 1 – 1 Sturm Graz
Champions League Qualification
04/08/2022 – Dynamo Kiev 1 – 0 Sturm Graz
Bundesliga
31/07/2022 – Sturm Graz 2 – 1 RB Salzburg
Club friendlies
26/07/2022 – Sturm Graz 4 – 0 Al-Wahda
Bundesliga
24/07/2022 – Wolfsberger AC 1 – 1 Sturm Graz
Dynamo Kiev – Statistics & current form
Dynamo Kiev do not have it easy at the moment. The club cannot play its home games in Ukraine, so the game last week against Sturm Graz had to be played in Lodz. In addition, the rhythm is still a bit lacking because the league is not running yet. To have progressed against Fenerbahce and to have beaten Sturm Graz in the first leg is nevertheless respectful.
It is very difficult for Dynamo Kiev to prepare for matches at the moment. The squads have sometimes had to be filled up with players from their own youth, because foreign players have the option of going on loan to another club and pausing their contract with the Ukrainian club due to the war. After all, Dynamo is one of the teams with a good academy.
The squad that coach Mircea Lucescu has at his disposal is quite respectable. However, because many automatisms are not yet perfect, Dynamo have so far adopted a rather defensive approach. In 270 minutes plus extra time against Fenerbahce, the Ukrainians conceded only one goal.
Dynamo Kiev and the problem with rhythm
It is difficult to look at the statistics when it comes to Dynamo Kiev. One of their last eight games was still from the group stage in the 2021/22 Champions League against FC Bayern. The domestic league has been on break for a long time, which means there is a lack of rhythm, even though Dynamo were able to play a few test matches at the time when other clubs were preparing.
An offensive spectacle is not to be expected, but a match in which, from a certain point, one of the two teams will automatically have to take risks. Therefore, before the match Sturm Graz vs. Dynamo Kiev, our value tip is that both teams will also score a goal.
Predicted line-up of Dynamo Kiev:
Bushchan – Kedziora, Popov, Syrota, Dubinchak – Sydorchuk, Shaparenko, Shepelev, Buyalskyi, Garmash – Besedin
Last matches played by Dynamo Kiev:
Champions League Qualifier
04/08/2022 – Dynamo Kiev 1 – 0 Sturm Graz
Friendly club matches
30/07/2022 – Everton 3 – 0 Dynamo Kiev
Champions League Qualifier
27/07/2022 – Fenerbahçe 1 – 2 Dynamo Kiev
21/07/2022 – Dynamo Kiev 0 – 0 Fenerbahçe
Friendly club matches
16/07/2022 – Antwerp 2 – 1 Dynamo Kiev
Sturm Graz – Dynamo Kiev Direct comparison / H2H-balance
The first leg was the only competitive match between these two teams, who otherwise only faced each other in a test match in the winter of 2018. The must-win match went to Dynamo Kiev, the test match to Sturm Graz.
Sturm Graz – Dynamo Kiev Tip
Dynamo Kiev have a slight advantage after the first leg, but cannot be sure they have reached the play-offs yet. The Ukrainians will have to go to the limit of their performance once again. Nevertheless, we advise against predicting an away win in the Sturm Graz vs. Dynamo Kiev match, despite good odds.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, will be hoping for a good performance, match luck and, at best, the lead. Due to the omens, our tip before the match between Sturm Graz and Dynamo Kiev is that less than 2.5 goals will be scored.
