Will St. Pauli score again against Mainz on Saturday evening?

Welcome to the Bundesliga, FC St. Pauli! With a few weeks’ delay, these welcome greetings can now be extended to the neighborhood kickers again. It took until the fifth matchday for the promoted team to get their first three points in the top flight. Blessin’s team won 3-0 in Freiburg and thus temporarily moved away from the relegation places. The obvious upward trend should definitely continue on Saturday evening, although between St. Pauli and Mainz, the tip for a home win naturally involves some risks.

Before we take a closer look at the St. Pauli vs. Mainz prediction, it should be noted that the kick-off time on Saturday at 6:30 p.m. is rather unusual for both teams. The hosts from the Elbe are playing a Saturday evening game in the Bundesliga for the first time since 2010. The FSV has only been allowed to play the Sky top game at this time once in the last two seasons.

It is difficult to judge who ultimately has the better chances of taking the three points based on the St. Pauli vs. Mainz odds. If you adjust the offered odds for the typical home advantage, the probabilities of victory for both teams are almost identical.

It therefore makes sense to switch to the goal market and look at the number of goals. If you are looking for a suitable betting provider, Merkur Bets can be recommended.

St. Pauli vs. Mainz prognosis AI

Our artificial intelligence, the “BETSiE”, gives a different assessment of the duel of the neighborhood kickers against the zero fives than the bookmakers. While the betting providers consider the home side to have slightly better chances, the AI predicts a higher probability of victory in favor of the FSV. In view of the assumed 40%, a 2.50 on the away win would be a fair quote. At the top, however, a 3.06 is even offered on the Rheinhessen’s three-pointer, so that between St. Pauli and Mainz, the AI forecast clearly points towards a win for the guests.

St. Pauli – Statistics & current form

After more than 13 years, the long period of suffering in the Bundesliga ended for FC St. Pauli last weekend. For the first time since February 2011, the Kiezkicker were able to win a game in Germany’s top football league. Admittedly, the 3-0 win at SC Freiburg in Breisgau came as a bit of a surprise, as the Sport-Club had previously made a strong impression, while the “Boys in Brown” had primarily had to learn the hard way during the first few match days.

Can St. Pauli confirm the positive impressions of the last two games?

The outstanding man on the pitch in the aforementioned success at the Europa-Park Stadium was Elias Saad, who scored two goals himself and set up another. Overall, the Tunisian left winger was thus involved in all of Pauli’s Bundesliga goals this season. If you want to bet on the in-form dribbler being on the scoresheet again on Saturday evening, you can find high odds of 3.85 at Winamax for the match between St. Pauli and Mainz.
In any case, Alexander Blessin’s team definitely has a chance of winning at the weekend. Nevertheless, we believe it would be too risky to venture a prediction of a home win before the St. Pauli vs. Mainz encounter, since St. Pauli is the only Bundesliga team – besides Werder Bremen – that has not yet scored a goal at home and it cannot necessarily be assumed that the Hamburg team will keep a clean sheet for the third league game in a row.

Finally, if we look at the approach of the Kiezkicker, there is reason to believe that the spectators at the Millerntor will see a relatively goal-scoring match. The promoted team has long since defined itself not only through its transition play, but also wants to have controlled phases of possession. These, in turn, lead to spaces for the opponent, which are exploited differently at the Bundesliga level than they were last year.

Mainz – Statistics & current form

The FSV Mainz 05 is currently facing accusations of being a rowdy team. In fact, this accusation cannot really be dismissed, because in two consecutive Bundesliga games, the Rhine Hessians were sent off in each game. In addition, Dominic Kohr appeared as a roughneck or hooligan on several occasions without being sent off for it. Regardless of the external accusations, the red-and-whites have weakened themselves considerably and lost 2-0 to Heidenheim with a man less last week.

How serious is the loss of Hanche-Olsen

The fact that Andreas Hanche-Olsen, of all people, saw the red card, is doubly painful, because his absence could well influence the St. Pauli vs. Mainz betting odds on Saturday evening. Since the defender’s Bundesliga debut in January 2023, FSV has only won one of 24 matches in which Hanche-Olsen was not on the pitch. With him in the starting lineup, Mainz conceded 1.4 goals, without him 1.9.

What should encourage coach Bo Henriksen’s team, however, is the fact that their last few away games have been very respectable on the whole. Two weeks ago, FSV won 3-2 in Augsburg; in their first away game at CL participants VfB Stuttgart, they drew 3-3. In three consecutive Bundesliga away games, the Rheinhessen have scored at least three goals of their own. All the more reason to hope for a goal-filled duel on equal terms on Saturday evening.

In any case, it should be noted that the Nullfünfer have changed their approach somewhat compared to the relegation battle of the previous season and are taking more risks in their games. However, their bold style of play comes at the expense of their own defense, because keeper Zentner has not only conceded an average of two goals so far, but is also still waiting for his first clean sheet after five match days. In the last four matches, they have always conceded at least two goals.

St. Pauli – Mainz Head to head / H2H record

The direct comparison between these clubs is quickly settled. To date, there have been 20 meetings in the 2nd Bundesliga and only two in the top flight. Since all the encounters were close to 15 years or more in the past, they have no relevance for the upcoming duel. It is perhaps still exciting that Mainz has a 100% win rate in the Bundesliga against the Kiezkicker. Six goals were scored in two Bundesliga matches in the 2010/11 season.

St. Pauli – Mainz Tip

The Mainzers know the feeling of an away defeat almost only from hearsay. The Nullfünfer have not lost any of their last six away games in the Bundesliga (2-4-0). In view of this statistic, and considering that the Rhine Hessians were also able to score three goals in each of their first two Bundesliga away games of the current season, we would not be surprised if Henriksen’s team also snatched one or even three points from Hamburg on Saturday evening. A bet on the X2 & Over 1.5 can therefore be found in the top betting tip table above.

Another interesting bet between St. Pauli and Mainz is on three or more goals in the game. We have already hinted at the offensive strength of the Red & Whites in away games. Added to this is the self-confidence of the Kiezkicker, who won 3-0 in Freiburg last week and now want to follow that up in front of their own fans. The over 2.5 is attractively priced at 1.85, so we are betting six units.