Is Sweden’s run of success coming to an end against Spain?

2007 was the last time a European team won the World Cup title with the German women’s national team. The last three trophies, however, went to Japan (2011) or the USA (2015, 2019). At the Women’s World Cup 2023 in Australia/New Zealand, the chances are quite high that a European team will once again be crowned the new title holder. In any case, there will be at least one finalist from our continent

The first of the two semi-finals will be contested by Spain and Sweden on Tuesday morning. A bet on the Iberians is considered much more realistic. On the three-way market, a 2.10 is offered at the top on the victory of the Vilda eleven after regular playing time. However, the Scandinavians have already impressively demonstrated in the round of 16 and quarter-finals that they can cope very well with the underdog role.

Eliminating the last two world champions from the competition one after the other and probably being physically the best team left at this World Cup finals, the Spaniards need not be afraid of their stylistically very attractive and recently also effective short-passing game. Due to the different approaches, which in turn seem promising, we are not averse to making a prediction on a goal or two in the run-up to the match between Spain and Sweden.

Spain – Statistics & current form

The Spanish will be pleased to know that they will not have to play Japan again in the semi-finals of this World Cup. The Asians have so far been the only team to show coach Jorge Vilda’s side their limitations and revealed weaknesses in their rest defence/counter defence. In their final group match, the Iberians lost 4-0 to the 2011 world champions and had to settle for second place in the group.

As the Swedes were able to beat Japan in their quarter-final, the aforementioned semi-final between Spain and Sweden will now take place. Lower odds are offered on the world number six from southern Europe. The role of the favourites is quite understandable, because in terms of tactics, the Spaniards are likely to be more comfortable with the Swedes than with the Japanese.

Will Spain also break down the Swedish defence?

Generally, “La Furia Roja”, who have made it to the final round of a World Cup for the first time and are now looking to reach a final at a major tournament for the first time, have now emerged as the top favourites for the title. Bet365, for example, offers a 2.60 on the World Cup triumph of Esther Gonzalez, Jenny Hermoso, Alba Redondo and Co.

This status is primarily due to their high-quality offence, which has already scored 15 goals in five matches during the tournament. The Spaniards’ best performance so far came in their 5-1 win over the Swiss in the round of 16. Their 2-1 extra-time win in the last eight against the uncomfortable Dutch was also far from undeserved.

If the Vilda team can once again find a good balance between their notorious short passing game with exuberant control of the game and good protection in the defensive transition game, the odds on the favourites to win between Spain and Sweden can definitely be considered. However, we do not necessarily believe in a “to-nil” triumph in view of the weaknesses shown.

Predicted line-up of Spain:

Spain (Official line-up) 4-1-2-3

Sweden – Statistics & current form

After a rather disappointing 2023 international campaign to date, in which the Swedes failed to record a single win against Germany (0-0), Denmark (0-1) and also Norway (3-3), the 1984 European champions did not necessarily enter this tournament as top favourites. Due to their extremely successful history with various semi-final appearances at World Cup or European Championship finals and their very experienced team, the Scandinavians had to be on the cards.

In view of the very complicated tournament path, however, it was not to be expected that the yellow-blue team would reach the semi-finals. Both in the round of 16 against the US and in the quarter-finals against Japan, coach Peter Gerhardsson’s team was actually considered the underdog. In both cases, however, the disciplined Swedish team outperformed itself, first beating the USA on penalties and then the Japanese 2-1.

Swedish recipe for success: Success with stationary balls

The main guarantee for the current somewhat surprising success is the stable defence, which has only conceded two goals in the course of the tournament. They kept their clean sheet in three games, including against the double world champions from the United States. This stability is closely linked to Zecira Musovic, who is probably the best goalkeeper in the tournament so far.

However, it must also be said that the Swedes have allowed many chances in both knockout games so far and in some cases have also had the necessary luck on their side. The pressure is likely to be too great against the Spaniards, which is why we dare to predict that the southern Europeans will score at least two or even more goals in the Spain vs. Sweden clash.

On the offensive side, they can rely on their enormous qualities after resting balls. The experienced Kosovar captain Asllani is excellent at setting standards and the tall players around top scorer Ilestedt, who has already crossed the line four times as a centre-back, regularly cause trouble in the opposing box. Against the physically inferior Spaniards, the highest danger will again be posed by set-pieces

Predicted line-up of Sweden:

Sweden (Official line-up) 4-2-3-1

Spain – Sweden Direct comparison / H2H balance

Spanish fans are sure to get a cold shiver when looking at their head-to-head record. La Furia Roja” have played ten international matches against Sweden so far and have not won a single one. There have been three draws and seven defeats.

The last direct encounter dates back to last year, when the teams drew 1-1 in a friendly match. The other encounters, meanwhile, date back more than 20 years and are absolutely irrelevant to the upcoming first World Cup clash between Spain and Sweden.

Spain – Sweden Tip

Four teams still have a chance to win the Women’s World Cup 2023. The first finalist will be decided on Tuesday morning at the Eden Arena in Auckland. Bookmakers are offering lower betting odds on the Vilda eleven’s success ahead of the first semi-final between Spain and Sweden. In the event of a triumph of the underdog after regular playing time, however, the payout is almost four times the stake.

The Iberians’ role as favourites is justified in our eyes. The Spaniards have the best style of play at this tournament, provide the best attack and have gained a lot of self-confidence with the clear triumph against Switzerland and the emotional victory after extra time against the Oranje.

Nevertheless, they now face an ungrateful opponent in Sweden, who knocked the USA and Japan out of the tournament in succession, can rely on one of the best defences in the tournament, and can find success in their forward play mainly through their standard strength.

Judging by the different approaches, which nevertheless bring a lot of quality and goal threat, we try it between Spain and Sweden with the bet that at least three goals will be scored in 90 minutes.