Final match for group win: Sweden must win in Spain

Last matchday of the World Cup qualifying – and the top of the table meets the second in the direct duel for the group victory and the direct participation in the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. The constellation could not have been more beautiful and exciting. That is the case in some groups in the World Cup qualifiers, including Group B.

Here it comes to the final between Spain and Sweden. The betting odds speak an astonishingly clear language before the match, in which the starting position is also very clear.

Sweden desperately need a win on Sunday to jump into first place on the last matchday. The reason for this is the bitter slip in Georgia on Thursday evening, which caused the Swedish national team to lose the lead in the standings again and thus to forfeit the good starting position.

The Spaniards now need a draw at home in the Olympic Stadium La Cartuja in Seville to book their ticket to the World Cup finals in Qatar. Predicting Spain vs. Sweden in favour of the home team does not seem very lucrative at first glance, as odds of 1.38 are offered on a home win for Spain vs. Sweden.

Spain – Statistics & current form

The Spanish starting position before the last matchday and the decisive duel with Sweden is surprisingly good, because on matchday 9 the tide turned quite unexpectedly.

The previous league leaders Sweden surprisingly lost their match in Georgia 0:2 in the early evening, so there was good news for Spain even before the kick-off of the important match in Greece on Thursday. La Roja then dutifully did their homework in Athens, albeit not really convincingly.

The Spaniards won 1:0 against Greece, jumping to first place just before the last matchday – and now have even more control over their progress than before. With 16 points, Spain are one point ahead of Sweden in the Group B table.

Spain’s draw against Sweden is enough – interesting odds included

Before matchday 9, when Sweden were first, Spain would have absolutely needed a win against the Tre Kronor, now a draw is enough. So the pressure, it’s on the Swedes now. So Spain can do what they did for long stretches of the game in the narrow and tough win in Greece: Have a lot of possession, control the game and thus drive their opponents to despair without having to risk much. Therefore, if you bet on a draw between Spain and Sweden, you will receive surprisingly strong odds of 4.70 on average.

Spain are the clear favourites in this match, so the odds on the other two outcomes of the final match between Spain and Sweden are also very high.

Predicted line-up of Spain:
Simon – Carvajal, Laporto, I. Martinez, Alba – Busquets, Koke, Gavi – Sarabia, Morata, Olmo

Last matches played by Spain:

World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. B
11/11 2021 – Greece 0 – 1 Spain

UEFA Nations League A Championship Playoff
10/10 2021 – Spain 1 – 2 France

10/06 2021 – Italy 1 – 2 Spain

WM Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. B
09/08 2021 – Kosovo 0 – 2 Spain

09/05 2021 – Spain 4 – 0 Georgia

Sweden – Statistics & current form

Before matchday 9, things were still looking rosy for the Swedes: As top of the group, Sweden had everything in their own hands. A win in Georgia was a must, then they would have entered the showdown against Spain at the top of the table – a draw on the last matchday would have been enough to book their World Cup ticket.

But Thursday night’s unexpected 2-0 defeat in Georgia thwarted the Swedes’ plans and completely changed their starting position ahead of the final match with Spain. Sweden have slipped to second place and need three points themselves in Seville, otherwise the Scandinavians will have to go to the play-offs.

Sweden’s poor record in away games

The defeat in Georgia was Sweden’s second away defeat in a row, with a 2-1 loss in Greece in September. Sweden have lost two of their three away games in World Cup qualifying, not exactly an encouraging sign ahead of the do-or-die game at La Cartuja in Seville. The Tre Kronor were also weak away from home in the 2020 international season, losing four out of five matches – all three in the Nations League in Croatia, Portugal and France, as well as a friendly in Denmark.

In view of these results, it is less surprising that odds of up to 9.00 on an away win are available for the top match between Spain and Sweden – the best bookmakers do not have much confidence in the Swedes in Spain.

Sweden already showed in the first leg that they know how to beat the favoured Iberians – but of course they managed to do so in a home match, where Sweden feels much more comfortable.

Predicted line-up of Sweden:
Olsen – Krafth, Lindelöf, Nilsson, Augustinsson – Kulusevski, Svanberg, Olsson, Forsberg – Isak. Ibrahimovic

Last matches played by Sweden:

World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. B
11/11 2021 – Georgia 2 – 0 Sweden

10/12 2021 – Sweden 2 – 0 Greece

10/09 2021 – Sweden 3 – 0 Kosovo

09/08 2021 – Greece 2 – 1 Sweden

Friendly match
09/05 2021 – Sweden 2 – 1 Uzbekistan

Spain – Sweden Direct comparison / H2H record

Can the Swedes get a much needed win against Spain? As mentioned, this happened in the first meeting at the beginning of September, when Sweden won 2-1 in Solna – even after going behind.

Incidentally, this is already the third meeting within half a year, because this pairing also took place at the European Championships – at that time, Sweden were guests at La Cartuja in Seville. In the European Championship group phase, they drew 0-0 with the Spaniards. This result, however, would now be enough for the home side to qualify for the World Cup.

Spain – Sweden Tip

Sweden must risk a lot – and put aside their away weakness. Only with a win in Seville can the Scandinavians book their World Cup ticket directly.

That means: Sweden must play forward – Spain should have more space than usual in their games. Because Luis Enrique’s team usually has the ball and has to look at how to break down unyielding defensive chains. Sweden used the same tactics against Spain in the same stadium at the European Championship, when Spain could not get more than a 0-0 draw despite having 80 per cent of the ball.

Both this tactic and this result would play into the home side’s hands this time. Waiting forever, letting Spain have the ball as usual would probably not be a winning tactic. Therefore, one should expect a more open game, similar to the first duel in September, when both teams played with open sights.

Add to that the Swedes’ away problems, and we expect an exciting final with goals – and ultimately the better end for Spain. Therefore, our tip for Spain vs. Sweden is: Spain wins and both score