Spain and France will meet in the exciting semifinal of the 2025 UEFA Nations League in a duel full of talent and tension. Let’s take a look at the predictions, analyze the odds, and select the best bets for the clash between Luis de la Fuente’s La Roja and Didier Deschamps’ Les Bleus.
Spain and France will face each other on Thursday, June 5, in one of the two semifinals of the 2025 UEFA Nations League, in a clash that combines history, rivalry, and competitiveness.
The match, which will be played at 9 p.m. at the MHPArena in Stuttgart (and can be watched live on Cielo, Sky Sport Uno, Sky Sport Calcio, and Now), will pit the defending champions against one of the strongest teams on the continent.
The bookmakers are already setting the trend: Spain is slightly ahead with odds of 2.35, while a draw and a French victory are priced at 3.20 and 3.25 respectively, reflecting the parity and tension expected from this duel.
The margin is so narrow that any detail—a moment of individual brilliance, a defensive error, or even a penalty—could be decisive. Here are the best predictions, the best bets, and everything you need to know to enjoy and bet wisely on this match.
Tips for Spain-France
Over 2.5 goals – 2.20 (Bet365), 2.00 and 2.00 on GoldBet
Over 8.5 corners – 1.57 (Bet365), 1.46 and 1.48 on GoldBet
Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change.
European derby with goals
Spain is slightly favored (2.55) after winning the last two continental tournaments (Nations League and European Championship). They did well in the group stage of this competition, winning Group 4 with five wins, one draw, and 16 goals scored in six games.
France did its part in Group 2, where it finished in first place (tied with Italy) scoring 12 goals in six games against Belgium, Israel, and the Azzurri. In addition, the last two meetings between Spain and France ended with an identical score of 2-1 (one win apiece).
In eight of Luis de la Fuente’s last ten games, at least three goals have been scored. This has also happened in three of Didier Deschamps’ last six games.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals – 2.20 (Bet365), 2.00 and 2.00 on GoldBet
Explanation of the bet: The bet is won if Spain and France score three or more goals during the ninety minutes. Extra time and penalties are not included.
Open game, corners everywhere
Spain has taken 44 corners in its eight UEFA Nations League matches, averaging 5.5 corners per game. France, for its part, has accumulated 56, averaging seven per game in this edition of the continental competition.
It is also worth noting that in the last two previous meetings between Spain and France, 10 (at last July’s European Championship) and 12 (at the 2021 Nations League) corners were taken.
Another argument in favor of this prediction is that both teams attack with many players on the wings. In Spain’s case, we find stars such as Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal. On the French side, names such as Dembelé, Barcola, Doué, and, of course, Kylian Mbappé give us hope for a head-to-head clash.
Tip: Over 8.5 corners – 1.57 (Bet365), 1.46 and 1.48 on GoldBet
*More “risky” bet: Over 9.5 corners – 1.90 (Bet365), 1.85 and 1.85 on GoldBet
Explanation of the bet: The bet will be considered a winner if Spain and France get nine or more corners. In the higher stake bet, ten or more corners would be required. Extra time and penalties are not included.
Spain’s attack will test Maignan
In their eight UEFA Nations League matches so far, Spain have had 9, 6, 10, 4, 10, 6, 8, and 5 shots on target respectively. This suggests that Spain will try their luck at scoring three or more times in the match that will decide who goes through to the final and who is eliminated.
Another interesting statistic is the impressive form of Mike Maignan, the Milan goalkeeper who has saved at least three shots in eight of his last eleven games for the Italian side, conceding ten goals.
But beware of this aspect, which is crucial. Deschamps will be without most of his starting defense due to injuries to Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba, and Jules Koundé. Eduardo Camavinga will also be missing.
With the absences of France’s back line, it would not be a surprise to see Spain easily find the back of Mike Maignan’s net, who will need to be at his best if he wants to keep his team in the game.
Tip: 3+ saves by Mike Maignan
*More “risky” bet: 4+ saves by Mike Maignan
Explanation of the bet: the bet wins if French goalkeeper Mike Maignan makes three or more saves in the 90 minutes. Four, if you bet on a higher stake. Extra time and penalties are not included.
Spain-France odds
Spain to win – 2.35 with Bet365, 2.35 and 2.35 on GoldBet
Draw – 3.20 with Bet365, 3.20 and 3.20 on GoldBet
France to win – 3.25 with Bet365, 3.10 and 3.10 on GoldBet
Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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