Is the Furia Roja facing a game of patience?
The first matchday of the 2022 World Cup Group E will be completed at the al-Thumama Stadium in Doha on Wednesday evening when the other two nations, Spain and Costa Rica, also clash following the Germany-Japan encounter. The Furia Roja are unbeaten in three international matches so far – all friendlies – against the Ticos, scoring a remarkable nine goals in those three games.
The Costa Ricans are winless in six consecutive World Cup matches (four draws, two defeats) and have failed to score a goal of their own in four of those six games. The Furia Roja’s opening win in Spain’s match against Costa Rica is therefore a no-brainer, especially as the Spanish side have won their group in four of the last five World Cups.
However, the defensively compact Costa Ricans, who have gone eight of their last 12 international matches without conceding a goal, are likely to give their all. It should also be noted that the Tocos have won three of their five World Cup matches (60%) in the first group game – most recently against Uruguay in 2014.
Accordingly, the forecast for Spain against Costa Rica is that the Furia Roja will face at least a game of patience. The biggest value in this context is betting that the second half will be higher-scoring than the first half.
Spain – Statistics & current form
The Spanish national football team has successfully qualified for a World Cup for the twelfth time in a row. Only Brazil (22), Germany (18) and Argentina (13) have more consecutive appearances at finals.
However, the Furia Roja only performed at the highest level in 2010, when they won the World Cup in South Africa for the first and only time. It was the only time in the last 13 World Cups that the Spanish reached at least the semi-finals. The last time was in 2018 in Russia, where they were eliminated in the round of 16.
The highest possession in the entire 2022 World Cup Quali
Luis Enrique’s side were certainly able to shine in the World Cup qualifiers. The Furia Roja won Group B with 19 points out of a possible 24, conceding just five goals in eight games, and booked their direct ticket to Qatar.
Once again, the key to their superior qualification was unconditional possession football. An average of 76% possession was recorded in Spain’s qualifying matches, which no other team in the entire World Cup qualifiers can beat. The only 38 shots allowed by opponents is also the shared best with England.
Are the Spaniards in for a waiting game?
Accordingly, it is likely that the Furia Roja will also be able to successfully keep the Costa Ricans away from their own goal. However, given the very patient style of play of Enrique’s team, which rarely goes through the wall with its head, it could well take a while before the Ticos are cracked for the first time.
In this context, a lot of value can be gained from betting that Spain will score more goals against Costa Rica in the second half. After all, in seven of the last ten international matches the Spanish team scored more goals in the second half (twice the same number of goals, only once more goals in the first half).
Predicted line-up of Spain:
Simón – Azpilicueta – P. Torres – García – Carvajal – Koke – Rodri – Soler – Sarabia – F. Torres – Morata
Last matches played by Spain:
Friendly matches
17/11/2022 – Jordan 1 – 3 Spain
UEFA Nations League A Grp. 2
28/09/2022 – Portugal 0 – 1 Spain
25/09/2022 – Spain 1 – 2 Switzerland
13/06/2022 – Spain 2 – 0 Czech Republic
10/06/2022 – Switzerland 0 – 1 Spain
Costa Rica – Statistics & current form
Costa Rica’s national football team finished just fourth in the final COCACAF World Cup Quali standings behind Canada, Mexico and the USA. However, because the Ticos prevailed over New Zealand in the intercontinental play-offs, the Central American nation still got to travel to a World Cup for the sixth time.
For Luis Fernando Suárez’s team, it is even the third World Cup participation in a row, in which they will try to build on their best run so far in 2014. In Brazil, the Ticos reached the quarter-finals, where they only lost to the Netherlands on penalties.
Six consecutive World Cup games without a win
Whether the number 31 in the FIFA world rankings can keep up with Spain, Germany and Japan in a very complicated preliminary round group will also depend to a large extent on their defensive compactness. Basically, “La Tricolor” is very secure. Costa Rica have not conceded a goal in eight of their last twelve international matches – including six of their last eight competitive matches.
However, this focus on defence has often been at the expense of the offensive. The Ticos are currently winless in six consecutive World Cup matches (four draws, two defeats) and have failed to score a goal in four of those six games.
Six of last seven World Cup goals scored in second period
The supposed underdogs of Group E, against whom the odds speak very clearly in the case of Spain against Costa Rica, certainly won’t deviate from the route. The formula is simple, but effective: stay compact at the back and hope for the “lucky punch” at the front.
It was not uncommon for the Ticos to score in the second half, which also favours our betting recommendation. Costa Rica have scored six of their last seven World Cup goals in the second half (86%). Added to this is their effectiveness on high balls and standards. Seven of the Costa Ricans’ 19 World Cup goals so far have come from headers (37%). Since 1990, this figure has only been topped by Côte d’Ivoire (38%).
Predicted line-up of Costa Rica:
Navas – Oviedo – Calvo – Duarte – Fuller – Ruiz – Tejeda – Borges – Torres – Contreras – Campbell
Last matches played by Costa Rica:
Friendly matches
10/11/2022 – Costa Rica 2 – 0 Nigeria
27/09/2022 – Uzbekistan 1 – 2 Costa Rica
23/09/2022 – South Korea 2 – 2 Costa Rica
WM Qualifiers. Play-off matches
15/06/2022 – Costa Rica 1 – 0 New Zealand
CONCACAF Nations League A Grp. 2
05/06/2022 – Costa Rica 2 – 0 Martinicka
Spain – Costa Rica Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 2 – 1 – 0
The two nations have faced each other a total of three times so far. In those three friendlies, the Furia Roja remained unbeaten on 9:3 goals. The Spaniards most recently defeated Costa Rica 5-0 in Malaga on 11 November 2017
Spain – Costa Rica Tip
The betting odds on Spain against Costa Rica are clearly in favour of the Furia Roja, who are accordingly favoured going into the first group match. However, it should be noted that the Ticos have won three of their previous five World Cup matches in their opening game. The last time they beat Uruguay in their first match was in 2014. Betting on the underdogs to win the match makes little sense. Nevertheless, it is not a bad idea to choose a bet that at least does not rule out this eventuality.
When it comes to Spain against Costa Rica, the forecast has an interesting anomaly: On the one hand, in seven of their last ten international matches, the possession-oriented Spaniards scored more goals in the second half than in the first. And on the other hand, none of the Ticos’ last seven World Cup goals came before the 44th minute of play (six of seven goals in the second half).
Because the Costa Ricans will be very defensive, it makes a lot of sense to bet on more goals in the second half, for which Bet365 offers quotes around 2.0. Four units on our Spain vs Costa Rica betting tips
