Final appearance within reach for the Magpies
Over the last few years, the EFL Cup has mostly been dominated by the top teams from the Premier League. The last time an underdog was crowned champion in the League Cup was in 2013 with Swansea City, since then the trophy has gone either to Chelsea, Liverpool or one of the two top clubs from Manchester.
This makes this year’s semi-final pairings all the more surprising, including the match between Southampton vs Newcastle United. The Saints did, after all, knock Manchester City out of the competition in the previous round. If SFC can pull off another coup, betting odds of 5.00 on the hosts are available for a Southampton vs Newcastle bet.
This season, the two clubs have already met in the Premier League. Although the Saints benefited from home advantage in their first meeting of the season, the Magpies claimed an impressive 4-1 victory away from home. It is therefore not at all surprising that Newcastle United will also approach the semi-final first leg at St Mary’s from SFC as favourites.
In three of the last four meetings between Southampton vs. Newcastle, a prediction on the Magpies paid off. If they win this one too, the Saudi investor-led club will set the stage for their first EFL Cup final appearance since 1976 in the first leg.
Southampton – Statistics & current form
In the league, Southampton FC are still struggling to stay in the English top flight. The Saints have just 15 points on their account after 20 matchdays and are in last place in the Premier League. Last week, head coach Nathan Jones’ side missed out on moving into a non-relegation spot.
The Saints failed to pick up a point against AVFC despite home advantage at St Mary’s. It was Southampton’s first defeat in three competitive games. Previously, Coach Jones’ side had enjoyed success against clubs such as Crystal Palace (FA Cup), City (EFL Cup) and Everton (PL). SFC scored two goals in each of the three matches.
It therefore remains to be seen how Southampton will perform in the semi-final first leg of the current League Cup. In the previous round, the Saints caused a big surprise with a 2-0 win over Manchester City. It is therefore not at all unreasonable to bet on Southampton vs. Newcastle as well.
Will SFC keep the Magpies’ attack at bay?
The last time the Saints appeared in the EFL Cup final was in 2017. On that occasion, Southampton FC were defeated by Manchester United and missed out on the first League Cup title in the club’s history. The chance for revenge may come this season as Man United are also still in the second semi-final of the EFL Cup.
For Southampton, the cup match against Newcastle United will be dominated by their defensive performance. Defence has been the Saints’ biggest problem so far. After 20 matchdays in the English top flight, SFC have already conceded 35 goals. Statistically, the Saints have the second weakest defensive line in the league.
For the cup match against Newcastle, SFC will miss five players due to injury. Compared to the starting eleven that was deployed against AVFC last week, minimal changes are expected at most.
Projected Southampton line-up:
Bazunu; Lyanco, Salisu, Caleta-Car, Walker-Peters; Diallo, Lavia; Edozie, Ward-Prowse, Djenepo; Mara
Last matches played by Southampton:
Premier League
21/01/2023 – Southampton 0 – 1 Aston Villa
14/01/2023 – Everton 1 – 2 Southampton
Carabao Cup
12/01/2023 – Southampton 2 – 0 Manchester City
FA Cup
07/01/2023 – Crystal Palace 1 – 2 Southampton
Premier League
05/01/2023 – Southampton 0 – 1 Nottingham Forest
Newcastle – Statistics & current form
Newcastle United continue to make a splash in the Premier League and are also in one of the four starting places for the Champions League after 20 matchdays. Looking back at the Magpies’ season so far, the Black and Whites look set to qualify for the top flight next season.
After 20 matchdays, NUFC have only one defeat in the Premier League. In the 2023 EFL Cup, Newcastle United even have a realistic chance of winning the title. The League Cup final is already within reach, and NUFC only have to overcome the cup semi-final against the last team in the Premier League.
A few months ago, Newcastle beat Southampton in the league. The match at St. Mary’s was won 4-1 by Eddie Howe’s side, with NUFC leading the Saints 3-0 after just 62 minutes of play. The Magpies will therefore approach the cup tie with a big chest to stand on.
Will the winning streak at St. Mary’s be extended?
With the 4-1 win at SFC, Newcastle United won a must-win game at St. Mary’s Stadium for the second time in a row. The last time they lost was at Southampton FC in November 2020. Considering how strong Newcastle have been so far this season, it stands to reason that Newcastle will build on their recent record at SFC this time around.
Head coach Howe will only have to do without Shelvey, Targett and Krafth for the cup match against the Saints due to injury. There are currently no other absentees for the visitors from Newcastle.
In the Premier League, NUFC have the best defence in the league with only eleven goals conceded in 20 matchdays. The cup match against Southampton therefore comes in handy. The Magpies’ Tuesday opponents are known to have the fourth weakest offence in the English top flight and are therefore a feast for the Magpies’ defensive bulwark.
Predicted Newcastle line-up:
Pope; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Willock, Guimaraes, Longstaff; Almiron, Isak, Joelinton
Last matches played by Newcastle:
Premier League
22/01/2023 – Crystal Palace 0 – 0 Newcastle
15/01/2023 – Newcastle 1 – 0 Fulham
Carabao Cup
11/01/2023 – Newcastle 2 – 0 Leicester
FA Cup
08/01/2023 – Sheffield Wednesday 2 – 1 Newcastle
Premier League
04/01/2023 – Arsenal FC 0 – 0 Newcastle
Southampton – Newcastle Direct comparison / H2H record
In the last 103 meetings between the two clubs, Newcastle United lead the head-to-head comparison against Southampton with a record of 42-24-37. The Saints have not won a match against Newcastle United since November 2020. NUFC have prevailed in three of the last four competitive matches between the two clubs.
The three-goal mark was broken in all four encounters. It is quite possible that a prediction of over 2.5 goals will also come true in the upcoming match between Southampton and Newcastle. The two clubs even cracked the five-goal mark in their first meeting of the season.
Southampton – Newcastle Tip
Newcastle United are aiming for their first EFL Cup final appearance since 1976. The Magpies even have a realistic chance of winning the League Cup this season – at least that is the interim conclusion after 20 match days in the English top flight. To do so, the Black and Whites will probably have to beat Manchester United in the final.
Although Southampton eliminated Manchester City from the competition in the previous round, the quarter-final result should not be overrated in view of the upcoming match, especially as City had a disastrous day anyway. The Saints are expected to fail against the Magpies, who are the strongest defensive bulwark in the Premier League.
Tentatively, however, a high-scoring encounter is to be expected. There has been no shortage of goals between Southampton and Newcastle in their last four must-win duels. This was also the case in the first duel of the season, when NUFC came out on top with a 4-1 win at St Mary’s.
For Southampton vs. Newcastle, our betting odds of 2.07 aim for over 2.5 goals. We are betting five out of a possible ten units on this one.
