Will the City offense break through?
Eight teams still have the chance to secure the title in the most prestigious cup competition on the island. Ahead of the quarter-finals, Manchester City are currently given the best odds to win the overall title. At the tested bookmaker Bet365, just a 2.75 is offered as top odds for the Citizens’ triumph. On the way to the trophy, however, a German-speaking coach must first be cleared out of the way on Sunday.
In the highly anticipated knockout match between Southampton and Manchester City, a prediction on the Premier League leaders is obvious at first glance. Caution should still be exercised from the Sky Blues’ perspective, however, as this weekend’s cup match is the last remaining major highlight of the current season for the Saints. Because the Hasenhüttl eleven is in the gray midfield of the table, they will put everything on the line to eliminate the title favorites.
Despite the quality advantage for coach Pep Guardiola’s team, the undertaking does not seem impossible from the host’s point of view. Even the almost overpowering Citizens have lost some steam recently and seem to have lost the flow of the past days and weeks. Perhaps this small dip in form is just an additional reason to play the increased odds on the visitors between Southampton and Manchester City.
Southampton – statistics & current form
For many years, the FA Cup was like a red rag for Southampton Football Club. After the 2002/03 final, when the final against Arsenal was lost narrowly with 0:1 and thus missed the second title win after 1976, passed 14 years in which the Saints did not make it to the final round. Recently, however, the trend has been upwards, as a win on Sunday could see the south coast side reach the semi-finals for the third time in the last five seasons.
Admittedly, the grapes hang very high on the weekend, especially since between Southampton and Manchester City, according to the odds, the home side are treated as quite clear underdogs. This could be due to the fact that the team of coach Ralph Hasenhüttl recently weakened in the league. The last three games were all lost, although the opponents with Aston Villa, Newcastle or Watford were feasible.
The Saints need to get a grip on their defense
The defense was frighteningly vulnerable, conceding a whopping ten goals over the course of those three matches. Among the top ten in the Premier League, the team from the south of the country, which is tenth in the table, has the weakest defense, although it should be noted that most of the goals conceded were scored away from home. Nevertheless, the latest impressions are a pretty clear indication that a bet on excess goals could also pay off between Southampton and Manchester City.
The road to this quarter-final was, by the way, very rocky for the red and whites. In the first two rounds, the second division teams Swansea and Coventry could only be defeated after extra time. The victory in the round of 16 against West Ham United (3:1), on the other hand, was very convincing. In four of the six cup games played this season (FA Cup & League Cup), there was no decision after 90 minutes. With an increased affinity for risk, betting on the X after regular time is therefore possibly an option.
Predicted lineup of Southampton:
Caballero; Walker-Peters, Stephens, Salisu, Perraud; S Armstrong, Ward-Prowse, Diallo, Djenepo; Adams, Broja
Last matches played by Southampton:
Premier League
03/13 2022 – Southampton 1 – 2 Watford
03/10 2022 – Southampton 1 – 2 Newcastle United
03/05 2022 – Aston Villa 4 – 0 Southampton
FA Cup
03/02 2022 – Southampton 3 – 1 West Ham
Premier League
02/25 2022 – Southampton 2 – 0 Norwich
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
Pep Guardiola is a highly decorated coach. The Catalan-born twice won the Champions League, three times the Club World Cup, was champion in three different countries at all his three stations and also celebrated various cup victories. However, the FA Cup has not necessarily been one of his favorite competitions. The triumph in 2019 was the only one for Guardiola at Manchester City so far. He would very much like to repeat this title win in 2022.
In the course of the oldest cup competition in the world so far, the Sky Blues have benefited from the fact that it was exclusively against lower-class teams. Swindon Town (4:1), Fulham (4:1) and Peterborough United (2:0) were all easily eliminated, each with at least a two-goal difference. This weekend, too, everything speaks for the reigning English champions, who have reached the semifinals in six of the last seven quarterfinals in the FA Cup.
City’s senses are sharpened
The one or other small question mark remains, however, as Raheem Sterling, Kevin de Bruyne and Co. went without a goal of their own twice in a row recently. While the 0-0 draw in the second leg of the Champions League round of 16 against Sporting Lisbon was still bearable in view of the clear victory in the first leg, the subsequent 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace last Monday caused displeasure. The lead over Liverpool in the Premier League has shrunk to one point.
Meanwhile, we wouldn’t pay too much attention to the Citizens’ recent results. Guardiola’s team continues to impress with remarkable consistency, especially away from home. None of the last ten matches has been lost away from home. Eight matches were even won during this period. On average, they score 2.3 goals per game. In the FA Cup quarterfinals Southampton vs. Manchester City, a prediction of three or more goals in the course of the game is therefore not out of the air.
Predicted lineup of Manchester City:
Steffen; Walker, Stones, Ake, Zinchenko; De Bruyne, Fernandinho, Gundogan; Sterling, Jesus, Mahrez
Last matches played by Manchester City:
Premier League
03/14 2022 – Crystal Palace 0 – 0 Manchester City
Champions League Final
03/09 2022 – Manchester City 0 – 0 Sporting CP
Premier League
03/06 2022 – Manchester City 4 – 1 Manchester United
FA Cup
03/01 2022 – Peterboro 0 – 2 Manchester City
Premier League
02/26 2022 – Everton 0 – 1 Manchester City
Southampton – Manchester City Direct comparison / H2H record
Southampton have faced Manchester City three times in the FA Cup. Once the Saints got further. However, no one has seen the only home match in this competition against the Citizens live. In 1909, City won 5-0 in the south of England. Of course, these results are of little significance for the upcoming clash.
The situation is different with the two matches so far in the current Premier League season. On both matchday five and matchday 23, Manchester City had to settle for a draw against Hasenhüttl’s team. The score was 0-0 at home and 1-1 at St. Mary’s Stadium, so there is no hidden value in Southampton vs. Manchester City odds on the favorite to win after regulation time.
Southampton – Manchester City betting tips
One of four quarterfinals in this year’s FA Cup goes down on Sunday afternoon at St. Mary’s Stadium. Southampton will receive Manchester City. Lower odds are offered on the away win, although after the two draws in the two head-to-head clashes in the Premier League, we’d be cautious about placing a bet on the Sky Blues after 90 minutes.
On balance, we are still convinced that the title favorites will advance to the next round. In six of the last seven occasions that Guardiola’s eleven reached the quarterfinals of this competition, they also managed to make it to the semifinals. In addition, City have gone without defeat in their last ten competitive matches away from home and will certainly not want to show any further weakness after two goalless draws in a row.
We therefore combine the reigning champions’ progress with the over 2.5 and base this on the fact that the Saints have conceded ten goals in their last three league games. Furthermore, there is an international break after this game; therefore, the rotation on both sides, especially for the visitors, will not be as great as one might expect.
The 1.72 at the top for the Southampton vs Manchester City tip on “City will progress & Over 2.5 goals” is therefore an exciting compromise to cover as many eventualities as possible.
