Will Liverpool keep their championship chance?
The dream of Quadruple at Liverpool Football Club lives on. Ahead of Tuesday night’s penultimate league game at St Mary’s Stadium in Southampton, the Reds still have every chance of claiming four major titles in the space of a season. The two national trophies in the FA Cup and the League Cup have already passed into LFC ownership since last weekend. But before the Champions League trophy is up for grabs at the end of the month, a decision will be made in the Premier League championship race.
As early as Tuesday night, Manchester City could take the crown if a prediction of a home win pays off in Southampton’s make-up game against Liverpool. However, if LFC celebrate the expected away treble, a spectacular finish is in the offing next weekend with the Citizens nevertheless holding all the aces
For the Southampton vs Liverpool encounter, odds of 1.41 are offered at the top on the favourites to win. Looking at the recent results of both teams, it is also clear why the spread is so lopsided.
While the Saints have only won one of their ten most recent Premier League matches, the visitors from Merseyside are still completely unbeaten at national level in the calendar year 2022. All the signs are that it will stay that way.
Southampton – Statistics & current form
Southampton Football Club have once again had an up and down season. In the last few weeks, however, the valleys clearly outweighed the ones that Ralph Hasenhüttl’s team had to overcome. The Saints have only won one of their last ten Premier League games. Instead, they have suffered seven defeats in the same period. One point from their last four matches underlines the current poor form of the 15th-placed team.
Throughout the season, the defence has been the biggest problem. The 3-0 defeat to Brentford ten days ago took the number of goals conceded to 61, the fourth successive Premier League year in which the Saints have conceded at least 60. In a league comparison, only relegated Watford and Norwich and relegation candidates Leeds United have conceded more goals.
Hasenhüttl wants to make Saints history
Given the poor form as well as the demonstrable weaknesses in the work against the ball, betting on a surprise coup for the home side between Southampton and Liverpool involves a lot of risk. This is made clear not least by the fact that eight of the past nine direct duels against the Reds in the league have been lost.
Another interesting statistic is that the eight Premier League home victories against LFC to date have come under eight different coaches. One of them: Ralph Hasenhüttl. The former Leipzig man could therefore become the first Saints coach to beat the traditional Anfield club twice at home. Such an outcome is not particularly likely, however, especially as the Saints have lost their last home game in three of their past five seasons.
At least in terms of personnel, the Austrian coach has hardly any notable absences to lament. Only Valentino Livramento will still be missing due to injury. However, changes compared to the recent weak performances against Brentford or at home against Crystal Palace are to be expected. Southampton will be looking to end the season on a positive note, but will have to go above and beyond to do so.
Predicted Southampton line-up:
Forster; Walker-Peters, Bednarek, Salisu, Perraud; Redmond, Ward-Prowse, Romeu, S. Armstrong; Adams, Broja
Last matches played by Southampton:
Premier League
07/05/2022 – Brentford 3 – 0 Southampton
30/04/2022 – Southampton 1 – 2 Crystal Palace
24/04/2022 – Brighton 2 – 2 Southampton
22/04/2022 – Burnley 2 – 0 Southampton
16/04/2022 – Southampton 1 – 0 Arsenal FC
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
Liverpool FC have struck again! After winning the League Cup final, the Reds also kept the upper hand in the FA Cup final against Chelsea last Saturday. Once again the penalty shootout had to decide the match, but once again Klopp’s team had the better nerves and won their second title of the season. Two more trophies could possibly follow in the Champions League and the Premier League.
However, the chances of overtaking Manchester City in the PL standings are not particularly good. Liverpool need two wins from their remaining two games and some help from Aston Villa. LFC legend Steven Gerrard’s side face the Citizens on the final matchday and would need to pick up at least a point at the Etihad Stadium for the Scousers to be able to celebrate the championship.
Klopp will have to rebuild his team in several positions
But before that, his own homework should be done. According to the Southampton vs. Liverpool odds, that should be a mere formality on Tuesday night. The aforementioned 1.41 on the away win implies a probability of 70%. In their ninth game of the season during the week (Tuesday-Thursday), the Reds will be looking to land their eighth win and also build on their aforementioned top record against the Saints.
Although the workload has been quite high in recent weeks and the LFC pros have had just two days off to regenerate after the FA Cup final, we believe that between Southampton and Liverpool the prediction on the guest makes more sense. A single must-win defeat in the 2022 calendar year alone compares to eleven Premier League victories without conceding a goal.
Personnel-wise, Jürgen Klopp will definitely have to rebuild his victorious cup team, as Mo Salah was injured in the FA Cup final and will not be available for the time being. It is not yet clear whether van Dijk will start from the beginning after the injury he also suffered in the cup final. Fabinho is also part of the small but prominent lazaretto. Gomez, Firmino, Tsimikas or Jones are potential starting options. Of course, there is still enough quality.
Predicted Liverpool line-up:
Alisson; Gomez, Matip, Konate, Tsimikas; Jones, Henderson, Keita; Jota, Firmino, Diaz
Last matches played by Liverpool:
FA Cup
14/05/2022 – Chelsea FC (5)0 – 0(6) Liverpool FC
Premier League
11/05/2022 – Aston Villa 1 – 2 Liverpool FC
08/05/2022 – Liverpool FC 1 – 1 Tottenham
Champions League Final
04/05/2022 – Villarreal FC 2 – 3 Liverpool FC
Premier League
30/04/2022 – Newcastle United 0 – 1 Liverpool FC
Southampton – Liverpool Direct Comparison / H2H Record
These two teams will be playing their 90th meetings in England’s top flight on Tuesday. With 46 wins compared to 22 defeats and 21 draws, Liverpool clearly lead the head-to-head record. Eight of the last nine league encounters have also gone to the Reds, although they were beaten 1-0 at St Mary’s Stadium last year. They finally got their revenge in the first leg of the current season, when Klopp’s side won 4-0 at home.
Southampton – Liverpool Tip
At the end of the penultimate matchday, the newly-crowned FA Cup winners from Liverpool are once again in action. Just over 72 hours after their success in the cup final, the Reds are already back in league action. Therefore, there was no time for a big alcoholic free-for-all, and the focus was immediately on the potentially decisive away game on the south coast of England.
If the high betting odds on a surprising home victory in the Southampton vs. Liverpool clash prove to be true, Manchester City would be celebrating the championship on their home couch at around 11:00 pm. However, we think such a scenario is rather unlikely, especially as the form curves of both teams show completely different directions. The Saints have won just one of their last ten PL matches, while Liverpool are still unbeaten at national level in 2022.
In our eyes, therefore, the smartest choice between Southampton and Liverpool is to bet on the away win with a maximum of four goals in the match. On the one hand, we don’t think the defensively strong Scousers, who have won eleven of their last 16 league games to nil, will concede many goals. On the other hand, we wouldn’t be surprised if the Reds, with a changed line-up, find it a bit more difficult this time and land a relatively narrow victory.
