Can the Saints pass the red lantern?
Southampton Football Club are still stuck at the bottom of the English Premier League table. Nevertheless, the Saints have shown much improved performances under new coach Ruben Selles. They will now look to continue this trend in Wednesday night’s make-up game against Brentford and, at best, be rewarded with three points.
The visitors from the capital will, however, defend themselves with all their might against the threat of defeat. After all, in this match, which should have been played on the second weekend of September, important points are at stake for the Bees in the race for the European Cup places. In view of this rather even starting constellation, betting on the three-way market between Southampton and Brentford is rather complicated.
A lot will certainly depend on how the Londoners cope with their first defeat after twelve unbeaten PL matches in a row at the weekend. However, with a view to the season so far and the stability or consistency with which the Frank team has ploughed through the English top flight for long periods, it is by no means out of the question that a prediction on the visiting team will pay off between Southampton and Brentford.
Southampton – Statistics & current form
The situation in the Premier League remains very tense for Southampton Football Club. With 22 points from 26 games, the Saints still occupy the last place in the table. However, they are only two points off the bottom of the table, which means that in a best-case scenario, the home side could even jump to a non-relegation place during the week.
For that to happen, a similarly concentrated performance as last Sunday is needed. At Old Trafford, the White and Reds fought their way to a goalless draw. The Saints also continued their upward trend of the past few weeks, which is closely linked to the personnel of Ruben Selles. The Spaniard is already the third full-time head coach to take a seat on the bench of the bottom team after Ralph Hasenhüttl and Nathan Jones. Some things have improved under him.
Saints minimalist on the road recently
First and foremost, work against the ball has been stepped up, providing more stability in defence. In the review of the past four league games, only one goal was conceded. Bazunu has kept three clean sheets in that period, including a 1-0 win over Leicester City at home in their last home game to date.
The relegation candidates celebrated only their second home win in their twelfth attempt in front of their own fans at St. Mary’s Stadium. Three draws and seven defeats as well as a total of only eleven goals scored round off the poor record. In the home table, the team from the south coast of England also holds the red lantern.
Despite the improved performances under Ruben Selles, we are therefore far from offering odds on a home win between Southampton and Brentford. Instead, it is more interesting to bet on the double chance X2 or the under 2.5, because in the last four Saints games in a row, only one goal was scored at most.
Last games played by Southampton:
Premier League
12/03/2023 – Manchester United 0 – 0 Southampton
05/03/2023 – Southampton 1 – 0 Leicester
FA Cup
02/03/2023 – Southampton 1 – 2 Grimsby
Premier League
25/02/2023 – Leeds 1 – 0 Southampton
18/02/2023 – Chelsea FC 0 – 1 Southampton
Brentford – Statistics & current form
Actually, Brentford FC is a club without big stars. The only exception is Ivan Toney, who, however, only developed into an international striker and goal-scorer during his time at the English capital club. The 26-year-old currently has 15 goals for the season, making him the attacking lifeblood of coach Thomas Frank’s team, who also use the speedy attacker to good effect with good vertical passes.
If you want to bet on Ivan Toney to score at St. Mary’s Stadium on Wednesday evening, you can get odds of 2.75 on Southampton vs Brentford. An appealing value is definitely to be recognised.
Will the Bees start a new unbeaten streak?
In general, though, Ivan Toney is symbolic of the Bees’ very good season so far, and with a four-point gap to sixth-placed Liverpool and one match less played, they can still have hopes of being represented internationally next season. But it will be important for the current ninth-placed team to quickly put last weekend’s 1-0 defeat at Everton out of their minds.
After twelve unbeaten games in a row, Frank’s team lost in the Premier League for the first time in 2023 and also failed to score for only the second time since the turn of the year. The fact that this defeat was suffered away from home fits into the picture, as 26 points collected at home are offset by just 12 points away from home. A Southampton vs. Brentford prediction on an away win should therefore be taken with a grain of salt.
There is a lot to be said for the fact that there will not be many goals in a match involving the Bees. Only in three of the last eleven PL games of Brentford Football Club the mark of over 3.5 goals was broken. In five of the last seven league games, betting on a maximum of two goals in the course of the game would have been crowned with success.
Last games played by Brentford:
Premier League
11/03/2023 – Everton 1 – 0 Brentford
07/03/2023 – Brentford 3 – 2 Fulham
18/02/2023 – Brentford 1 – 1 Crystal Palace
11/02/2023 – Arsenal FC 1 – 1 Brentford
04/02/2023 – Brentford 3 – 0 Southampton
Southampton – Brentford Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
The first leg between these teams was not too long ago. At the beginning of February, Brentford beat Southampton 3-0 at home. All three PL meetings so far have been won by the home team. All three victories came by a margin of exactly three goals. We definitely don’t expect such a clear-cut course of events in the latest encounter on Wednesday evening.
Southampton – Brentford Tip
Brentford Football Club can underpin their own ambitions in the race for a top seven finish on Wednesday night. To do so, however, the Bees will have to break a curse that is particularly worrying for superstitious supporters. In fact, the Londoners have yet to win any of the seven Premier League matches played between Tuesday and Thursday.
That, in turn, does not change the fact that slightly lower betting odds are offered on the away win between Southampton and Brentford. However, with an implied win probability of 40%, it is not possible to speak of a pronounced favourite role. Especially, of course, because the home side have been stronger of late, picking up as many points (seven) in four games under Ruben Selles as they did in the previous twelve league games.
But since the visitors from the capital are usually very difficult to defeat and the Saints are known to be the weakest home team of the English top flight with only two wins, we refrain from betting on the match outcome and instead tend to bet on the X2 & Under 3.5 between Southampton and Brentford.
