Will Maribor live up to their role as favourites on a neutral pitch?
Russian teams are completely excluded from international competitions this season, Belarusian teams are allowed to participate but not to play their matches at home. Accordingly, the reigning champions from Belarus have to play in exile in the Champions League qualifiers. The choice fell on the Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadium in Turkey, where Soligorsk and Maribor will face each other on Wednesday evening.
There will be plenty of excitement in this clash, as the first leg last week was a goalless draw. A winner must now be decided on Wednesday, as the second qualifying round matches are already scheduled for next week. The winner of that knockout encounter will face the winner of the match between Tobol Kastany (Kazakhstan) and Ferencvaros Budapest. The loser will move on to the Europa Conference League, but will enjoy a bye and will not have to play again until the third qualifying round.
The bookmakers’ assessment that Soligorsk and Maribor will be a completely even match according to the current odds is quite surprising. Slight advantages can even be found for the Belarusian champions. In view of the fact that not even the home advantage is in favour of Soligorsk, this is not necessarily comprehensible. The match kicks off on Wednesday evening at 7 p.m.
Soligorsk – Statistics & current form
When almost all of world football took a break in the spring of 2020, Belarusian football suddenly took centre stage. President Lukashenko decided on a different path and against a lockdown. But in the meantime there are enough alternatives again and football in Belarus no longer generates interest.
So a quick look back to get back in the picture is necessary. In Belarus, a championship is played according to a calendar-year mode, and in each of the last two years, Shakhtyor Soligorsk have been champions. The hat-trick is currently a long way off, however, as the reigning title holders are currently only in seventh place.
Goals are a rarity
The goalless draw in the first leg last week was not necessarily surprising, as a look at the Belarusians’ exact results clearly shows that goals are scarce. In the twelve league games so far in 2022 (six wins, three draws, three defeats), a meagre total of just 21 goals have been scored. On average, this is not even two goals per game and in only two games was betting on an over 2.5 the right decision. These clear figures mean that another game with few goals is expected. A good option here between Soligorsk and Maribor is also the prediction that not both teams will score.
The role of favourites in favour of the home side was also discussed above and described as surprising. There are no big names in Tashuev’s line-up, which is not necessarily significant. However, almost the same team not only lost to Rasgrad Ludogorets in the Champions League qualifiers last season (0:1 twice), but also lost to Luxembourg’s CS Fola Esch in both qualifiers. Favourites against an internationally experienced team like the Slovenians are, the Belarusian title holders are by no means.
Predicted line-up of Soligorsk:
Plotnikov – Antic, Politevich, Satara, Shevchenko – Ahmedi, Krymi, Divanovic – Vitor Feijao, Darboe, Yuzepchuk
Last matches played by Soligorsk:
Champions League Qualifier
07/07/2022 – Maribor 0 – 0 Schachzjor Salihorsk
Premier League
25/06/2022 – Shakhtyor Salihorsk 0 – 1 Torpedo Shodsina
19/06/2022 – Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1 – 2 Shakhtyor Salihorsk
28/05/2022 – Shakhtyor Salihorsk 2 – 0 FK Vizebsk
20/05/2022 – FC Minsk 1 – 0 Shakhtsyor Salihorsk
Maribor – statistics & current form
After missing out on the title in the 2019/20 (3rd place) and 2020/21 (2nd place) seasons, the traditional Slovenian club managed to return to the throne of Slovenian football last season. Under head coach Radovan Karanovic, the title was won in a thrilling finish. With two rounds to go, Maribor were still in the hunter’s seat, but with two wins to spare, they clinched the 16th league title in the club’s history.
Five games without a win
Nogometni klub (NK) Maribor still played in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League in the 2017/18 season. Although there is not much left of the team from that time, the Slovenians have much more international experience as a club. The club regularly plays on the international stage and is always successful. Last year, however, Maribor was defeated in the second qualifying round of the newly created UEFA Europa Conference League.
In the 2022/23 season, Maribor should actually be rated a bit stronger. Only veteran Marcos Tavares ended his career (played only eight games last year). Apart from that, there are exciting additions such as top talent Ivan Brnic (Croatian youth international). Accordingly, Maribor can be expected to be a well-rehearsed unit, which, however, may still have some problems in the first weeks of the new season.
Friendly matches should always be treated with caution, but their record of one win, three draws and one defeat is far from satisfactory. The goalless draw in the first leg last week was already the fourth point-split in a row. Maribor certainly has more footballing quality and experience to offer. If the draw series makes betting on an away win too risky, interesting odds are offered for the DNB 2 bet between Soligorsk and Maribor.
Predicted line-up of Maribor:
Bergsen – Sikosek, Mitrovic, Watson, Milec – Repas, Makoumbou – Brnic, Bozic, Zugelj – Baturina
Last matches played in Maribor:
Champions League Qualification
07/07/2022 – Maribor 0 – 0 Schachzjor Salihorsk
Prva Liga
22/05/2022 – Mura 1 – 3 Maribor
15/05/2022 – Maribor 3 – 1 Aluminij
07/05/2022 – NK Bravo 3 – 1 Maribor
01/05/2022 – Maribor 1 – 1 Koper
Soligorsk – Maribor Direct comparison / H2H balance
The first leg last weekend in Maribor ended in a goalless draw. However, the 0:0 was a game of the better kind, as both teams definitely looked for the way forward. In the end, 22 shots found their way into the statistics, but none was successful. The quality of the finishing left a lot to be desired. This is one of the reasons why the odds for the second leg between Soligorsk and Maribor are only offered around 1.50 for the under 2.5 bet.
Soligorsk – Maribor Tip
Soberly speaking, the Champions League goal is out of reach for both teams this season. However, progressing in this head-to-head clash at least increases the chance of an international group stage, although the loser will enjoy a bye in the Conference League and would therefore only have to survive two more knockout rounds.
On Wednesday, however, such thoughts will not yet play a role. After last week’s eye-to-eye clash, the second leg between Soligorsk and Maribor is being offered very even odds on the three-way market.
That the lowest odds are offered for betting on the Belarusian title holder does not seem logical. Arguments for Soligorsk are not really there. Neither the home advantage (it is played in Turkey), nor the current form (only seventh in the league), nor the international experience speak in favour of Shakhtyor Soligorsk.
Maribor, after five games without a win (albeit four friendlies), is certainly not in top form yet either. Nevertheless, the Slovenians are one step above the Belarussians, so the available value for the prediction of an away win in Soligorsk against Maribor is correspondingly high – five units bet for this bet.
