Does Shkupi complete the sensation?
One of the biggest surprises of the UEFA Champions League second qualifying round came in the Croatian capital the previous week. In front of their home crowd at the Maksimir, Dinamo Zagreb had to settle for a 2-2 draw against underdogs Shkupi. Ahead of the second leg on Tuesday evening, the Macedonian champions have every chance of making it through to the third round.
Admittedly, it would be very surprising if the no-name team from Skopje were to come off so badly against the Croatian champions for a second time in a row. This is also the view of the betting providers, who are only offering odds of 1.33 on the away victory of the favourites between Shkupi and Dinamo Zagreb.
For Shkupi, of course, advancing would be a huge deal. Coach Goce Sedloski’s side have never qualified for an international group stage. All the northern Macedonians need is a win on Tuesday night to keep their dream of the big prize alive and at least secure a place in the main draw of the Conference League. In the event of a draw, the game will go into extra time. It is more likely, however, that the prediction of a Croatian triumph will come true in the second leg between Shkupi and Dinamo Zagreb
Shkupi – Statistics & current form
For KF Shkupi, Tuesday night’s home match is the most important in the club’s history. Because the club from the northern Macedonian capital was only founded in 2012 and has only been on the road in the first division since 2015, this can be said with justification. Especially if you take a closer look at the results in the European Cup so far.
Between 2018 and 2021, the men from Skopje always failed in the first qualifying round of the UEFA Europa League. The stakes were too high against Glasgow Rangers, Pjunik Yerevan and Neftci Baku. In the previous year, they managed to make it to the second qualifying round of the Conference League, where they were eliminated by the Portuguese representatives Santa Clara after two clear defeats (0:2, 0:3).
In the current season, the Blue and Whites will definitely celebrate their best result on the European stage. With Gibraltar’s Lincoln eliminated in the first round of the CL qualifiers despite a 2-0 defeat away from home, Shkupi are likely to progress to the third round of the EL qualifiers even if they are eliminated on Tuesday evening. Sedloski’s side will not be going down without a fight, however, as the northern Macedonian champions are not to be underestimated, especially at home.
Is Shkupi finally convincing in the return match?
In fact, in the last four years, they have lost only two of their five home games at European level. In the first qualifying round, Lincoln were swept off the pitch 3-0. However, the only two European Cup triumphs were first legs. In return matches, on the other hand, there were three defeats in five attempts. In three cases they did not even manage to score a goal of their own.
With this in mind, we would prefer to bet on an away win without conceding a goal on Tuesday evening between Shkupi and Dinamo Zagreb. In the course of this, a combined bet on the favourites to win in combination with a maximum of three goals in the course of the match is also very interesting.
Coach Sedloski will hardly make any changes in terms of personnel. Only Renaldo Cephas could move into the starting eleven after his late equaliser in the first leg. Incidentally, the national champions were match-free at the weekend, as the season in North Macedonia does not start until August. The home team is therefore at a disadvantage in terms of match practice.
Predicted line-up of Shkupi:
Naumovski; Brdarovski, Margvelashvili, Abdulla, Sheji; Queven, Senghor, Alvarez; Danfa, Cephas, Adetunji
Last matches played by Shkupi:
Champions League Qualifier
20/07/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 2 – 2 Shkupi
12/07/2022 – Lincoln Red Imps FC 2 – 0 Shkupi
06/07/2022 – Shkupi 3 – 0 Lincoln Red Imps FC
Friendly club matches
22/06/2022 – Fenerbahçe 2 – 2 Shkupi
Prva Liga
15/05/2022 – Shkupi 3 – 0 FC Academy Pandev
Dinamo Zagreb – Statistics & current form
Not infrequently in recent years or even in the previous week, we have seen supposed top favourites find it harder than expected in the first leg of an early qualifying round for European business. In many cases, however, a good performance in the second leg has been enough to finally secure a place in the tournament. This is exactly what Dinamo Zagreb seem to be aiming for after their weaker match a week ago.
The Croatian champions, who were beaten by FC Sheriff Tiraspol in last year’s play-offs before making it through to the intermediate round of the Europa League, naturally have more individual quality, a clear advantage in terms of experience in international competition and can also build on the fact that the season has already begun in Croatia and Dinamo have been able to boost their confidence recently.
Zagreb internationally even stronger away than at home?
The team of former national coach Ante Cacic won the Super Cup against Hajduk Split and finally presented itself in dazzling form on the first two matchdays. A 3:2 home win against city rivals Lokomotiva was followed by a 5:1 triumph at Slaven Belupo at the weekend. The 2:2 draw from the first leg is therefore a little out of place, although it has to be said that the offensive has so far absolutely lived up to expectations.
The main reason why we would still combine the away win with the Under 3.5 is that we do not necessarily trust the home side to score. Apart from that, the Croatians proved several times in the European Cup last season 2021/22 that they can win away games.
Not only did they win three of the four Champions League qualifiers, but the dark blue team also won in the Europa League in Genk or at the later semi-finalists West Ham United. Interesting: All five of these victories came without conceding a goal and the bet on the under 3.5 would always have gone through. From a purely statistical point of view, there are enough arguments to play the Shkupi vs. Dinamo Zagreb clash on Tuesday with the corresponding odds.
Predicted line-up of Dinamo Zagreb:
Livakovic; Ristovski, Lauritsen, Peric, Bockaj; Ivanusec, Misic; Menalo, Baturina, Orsic, Drmic
Last matches played by Dinamo Zagreb:
1st League
24/07/2022 – Slaven 1 – 5 Dinamo Zagreb
Champions League Qualifier
20/07/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 2 – 2 Shkupi
1st League
16/07/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 3 – 2 NK Lokomotiva
Super Cup
10/07/2022 Dinamo Zagreb (4)0 – 0.1 Hajduk Split
1st League
22/05/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 3 – 1 Hajduk Split
Shkupi – Dinamo Zagreb Direct comparison / H2H record
The first leg the previous week was, of course, the first and only direct clash between these two teams so far on the international stage. Dinamo Zagreb looked unfocused in the first half and eventually conceded a 0:1 goal, which they managed to level before the break. In the second half, Petkovic gave the Croats the lead shortly before the end. Cephas, however, equalised in the 89th minute for the final score of 2:2.
The goal-shot ratio of 12:4 and the higher share of possession nevertheless suggest that Dinamo will also be in control on Tuesday and will decide who advances to the third round.
Shkupi – Dinamo Zagreb Tip
On paper, the match between Shkupi and Dinamo Zagreb reads like a clear affair. However, the first leg in Zagreb was also based on the assumption that the Croatian champions would not show any weakness. No such luck! After trailing for a while, the favourites only managed a 2-2 draw, which leaves everything open for the return match on Tuesday evening.
Nevertheless, according to the betting odds, Shkupi will be the clear underdogs against Dinamo Zagreb in the second leg. No wonder, since the champions from northern Macedonia have never made it past the second qualifying round of an international competition, have never won a second leg in Europe in six attempts and already benefited a week ago from the fact that the favourites did not play to their full potential.
Nevertheless, we are convinced that the Cacic team will convert their superiority into goals this time. All three top tips refer to a success of the Croats. For example, the double result HT2/FT2 can be played as well as the away win without conceding a goal.
Our choice between Shkupi and Dinamo Zagreb, however, is the tip in favour of Zagreb in combination with a maximum of three goals in the course of the match.
