Will Newcastle have to pay tribute to the tight fixture schedule?
Newcastle United have been the positive surprise of the current Premier League season so far. The term surprise is only partially correct at this point, however, because after heavy investment in the squad and an already very strong second half of the last season, one could almost assume that the Magpies will also play a good role in the English top flight in 2022/23.
Coach Eddie Howe’s team is currently dancing on three high tides. In addition to the desired return to Europe in the league, they have also reached the quarter-finals of the League Cup. This will take place in front of a home crowd next Tuesday. With a view to a suitable Sheffield Wed vs. Newcastle tip in the third round of the FA Cup, the tight schedule of the favourites must therefore be taken into account.
Apart from that, the Premier League third-placed team will be up against an opponent in good form. Sheffield Wednesday have not lost a single league game since the beginning of October. Nevertheless, the bottom line is a difference of two divisions, which is why all the experts are predicting Sheffield Wed to win against Newcastle. However, we are of the opinion that the game could be closer than expected.
Sheffield Wed – Statistics & current form
Sheffield Wednesday is an absolute traditional club in the motherland of football. The Owls have won four championships to date, although the last one was around 100 years ago. The FA Cup trophy has also gone into the club’s own display case three times. 2000 was the last time the white-and-blue-striped team was allowed to compete with the best teams on the island in the Premier League. Since then, things have gone downhill bit by bit.
The club, which is owned by a Thai company, is currently in the third division, League One. This season, however, there are indications that the former European Cup participants could at least manage a return to the second division. At the moment, Darren Moore’s team is in second place, which would entitle them to direct promotion. They are two points ahead of the third-placed team.
Sheffield Wed rely on good defence
Even more promising is the form of recent days and weeks. None of the past 13 league games have been lost by the Owls. Eight wins and five draws in that period round off the strong record. The underdogs therefore go into the FA Cup match against the first division team with a lot of momentum and hope for a surprise coup.
However, as odds of 6.50 are offered for a success of the third division team after regular time between Sheffield Wed and Newcastle, it is clear that the chance of advancing is extremely slim. The home side’s aim must be to stabilise their defence and keep the score at 0-0 for as long as possible. The fact that the white and blue striped team has conceded only eleven goals in 13 League One home games and generally has one of the best defences in the third division gives hope in this respect.
In addition, the traditional club proved in the third round of the Carabao Cup that they can stand up to first division teams. Away at Southampton, Sheffield Wednesday only failed in a penalty shoot-out at the beginning of November. The score was 1-1 after normal time. James Ward-Prowse scored the Saints’ goal from a penalty kick. Out of the game, the Magpies’ league rivals couldn’t come up with much.
Predicted Sheffield Wed line-up:
Dawson; Palmer, McGuinness, James; Mighten, Byers, Vaulks, Dele-Bashiru, Johnson; Windass, Smith
Last matches played by Sheffield Wed:
League One
02/01/2023 – Sheffield Wednesday 5 – 0 Cambridge U
30/12/2022 – Sheffield Wednesday 2 – 0 Port Vale
26/12/2022 – Fleetwood 1 – 2 Sheffield Wednesday
17/12/2022 – Sheffield Wednesday 0 – 0 Oxford
10/12/2022 – Exeter 1 – 1 Sheffield Wednesday
Newcastle – Statistics & current form
In the Premier League, there are currently still two teams that have only suffered one defeat in the entire course of the season. Besides leaders Arsenal, the same is true for Newcastle United. Exactly these two teams faced each other in a direct duel on Tuesday and parted with a draw. However, Eddie Howe and his Magpies might have enjoyed the goalless draw much more than the Londoners.
At least the Black and Whites were able to extend their outstanding streak of 15 consecutive competitive matches without defeat. The last and only defeat in the English top flight came at the end of August with a 2-1 loss against Liverpool and came after leading 1-0 and conceding a goal with the final action of the game. The nouveau riche club is therefore hard to beat.
Result football instead of offensive spectacle?
The fact that we are nevertheless considering odds on a good result for the underdog in the upcoming cup match between Sheffield Wed and Newcastle is primarily due to the heavy workload for the visitors. For the Howe team, it is already the fourth match in eleven days. On Tuesday and next week on Sunday, the fifth and sixth games will follow within a very short time. A certain loss of substance and possibly also of concentration would therefore only be human.
From a purely statistical point of view, it should also be noted that the Premier League third-placed team has only managed to score more than one of its own goals once in its last five competitive matches. Against Arsenal and at home against Leeds United, Callum Wilson and Co. even failed to score at all. Against a deep-lying Sheffield defence, which will primarily hope for switching moments, not many scoring chances can be expected either, which is why we also predict between Sheffield Wed and Newcastle that the favourites will score a maximum of two goals in normal time.
This is also supported by the very probable rotation in the line-up of the black and whites. Several key players will get a break. It is quite possible that coach Eddie Howe will use the line-up from the League Cup as a guide. There, too, the Magpies did not cover themselves with glory and scored only three goals in the first three rounds despite reaching the quarter-finals. A pointer for the cup task at Hillsborough?
Predicted Newcastle line-up:
Dubravka; Manquillo, Burn, Lascelles, Lewis; Longstaff, Anderson, Willock; Murphy, Wood, Saint-Maximin
Last matches played by Newcastle:
Premier League
04/01/2023 – Arsenal FC 0 – 0 Newcastle
31/12/2022 – Newcastle 0 – 0 Leeds
26/12/2022 – Leicester 0 – 3 Newcastle
Carabao Cup
21/12/2022 – Newcastle 1 – 0 Bournemouth
Club Friendlies
17/12/2022 – Newcastle 2 – 1 Rayo Vallecano
Sheffield Wed – Newcastle Direct comparison / H2H record
There have been exactly 100 meetings between these clubs in England’s top flight. In addition, there have been 30 encounters in the second division as well as in the two cup competitions. With 57 wins, 42 defeats and 31 draws, Newcastle lead the direct comparison. However, these historic figures should not have a major impact on the upcoming match, as the last encounter dates back to the joint second division season 2016/17. The omens on Saturday are completely different.
Sheffield Wed – Newcastle Tip
The FA Cup is the oldest cup competition in the world. Compared to the EFL Cup, this competition is taken much more seriously by the top teams in England. It is quite possible that this is why such low betting odds are offered on an away win for the Magpies between Sheffield Wed and Newcastle. The best bookmakers expect the favourites to win after normal time.
However, there are some factors that make us doubt betting on the Magpies. For example, the Howe eleven’s offence additionally did not function as it did before the World Cup break. Twice in a row, the Black and Whites remained without a goal in the Premier League. In four of the last five matches, they scored a maximum of one goal. Moreover, the opponents should not be underestimated, as they have not lost in 13 league games!
In the end, we will therefore forgo a bet on the three-way market and venture a tip ahead of the third round clash Sheffield Wed vs Newcastle that the visitors will score a maximum of two goals after 90 minutes. The top odds are 1.70 and can be bet on at Bet365.
