Will the Hirnyky get their revenge?
In Group D of the Champions League, Real Madrid and Inter Milan have qualified early for the last 16, as expected. Surprisingly, however, it was not Shakhtyor Donetsk who booked their ticket to the Europa League Intermediate Round, but debutants Sheriff Tiraspol who finished third in their group.
The Transnistrian kickers picked up six points and also won 2-0 at home against the Ukrainians, who took just one point from a possible 15. Nevertheless, ahead of the second leg between Shakhtyor Donetsk and Sheriff Tiraspol, the odds are clearly swinging in the direction of the home side.
The Ukrainians could at least improve their home record, which has not been very impressive of late. They have won only one of their last eleven home matches in the top flight and have failed to score in seven of those eleven games. We see the greatest value in betting on less than 2.5 goals for Shakhtyor Donetsk against Sheriff Tiraspol.
On the one hand, we expect the visitors to be very defensive. On the other hand, the Ukrainians have scored only one goal in five group matches.
Shakhtyor Donetsk – Statistics & current form
Shakhtyor Donetsk have not only been regulars in the UEFA Champions League over the past decade, reaching the quarter-finals in 2011 and the last 16 three times in 2013, 2015 and 2018.
The Ukrainians also became the absolute benchmark at national level, winning nine national championship titles between 2010 and 2020 alone. This summer, however, the Kroty (the moles) were replaced by Dynamo Kiev.
Only one point out of a possible 15 with 1:11 goals
Under Italian coach Roberto De Zerbi, the primary goal for the new season was to regain national supremacy by return. A goal that is still up in the air after 17 match days so far. The Hirnyky are currently level on points with Kiev.
What has definitely failed under the new coach, however, is the turnaround at international level. Not only did the Krotys miss out on a place in the Champions League last 16, but with only one point out of a possible 15 and 1:11 goals, it is already clear that they will not even make it into the Europa League.
Only one win in the last eleven home games in the top flight
Although the Ukrainians have won four of their last five competitive matches and warmed up last Friday with a 6-1 home win over Lviv, the momentum is thus by no means on the Hirnyky’s side.
After all, they have only won one of their last eleven home games in the Champions League, with the Ukrainians going without a goal of their own in seven of those eleven matches. Accordingly, there is a lot of value to be found in betting on under 2.5 goals for Shakhtyor Donetsk against Sheriff Tiraspol.
Predicted line-up of Shakhtjor Donetsk:
Trubin – Mativyenko – Marlon – Vitao – Dodô – Stepanenko – Maycon – Solomon – Pedrinho – Tetê – Fernando
Last matches played by Shakhtyor Donetsk:
Champions League Grp. D
12/07 2021 – Shakhtar Donetsk 1 – 1 FC Sheriff
Premier League
12/03 2021 – Shakhtar Donetsk 6 – 1 FC Lviv
11/28 2021 – Inhulets Petrove 0 – 1 Shakhtar Donetsk
Champions League Grp. D
11/24 2021 – Inter Milan 2 – 0 Shakhtar Donetsk
Premier League
11/20 2021 – Shakhtar Donetsk 2 – 0 Rukh Lviv
Sheriff Tiraspol – Statistics & current form
Sheriff Tiraspol has only existed since 1996, but quickly advanced to become the absolute figurehead of the Republic of Moldova thanks to the financially strong main sponsor and owner Sheriff – the largest company in Transnistria.
Most recently, the Zholto-chornyye (the yellow and black) celebrated seven national championships in a row and qualified for the Champions League preliminary round for the first time this summer after four appearances in the group stage of the Europa League.
After two wins in the opener, three defeats in a row
At first, the Osy (the wasps) were considered to be the underdogs in Group D. But they did not win. Curiously, however, they not only won their first group match at home against Shakhtyor Donetsk 2-0 despite having just 25% of the ball, but also followed it up just two weeks later at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu with a 2-1 away win at Real Madrid.
Only then were the Zholto-chornyye, who briefly even dreamed of reaching the last 16, brought back down to earth. FC Sheriff have lost all of their last three group games, leaving them four points behind second place and no chance of reaching the last 16.
Will FC Sheriff be putting concrete in Kiev?
For now, it is clear that the kickers from Transnistria will spend the winter in the Europa League, as the six points from the first two group games ensure an unassailable lead over the Ukrainians, which means that nothing is at stake in this away match in Kiev.
We expect a similar approach as in the first leg, when the focus was on a stable defence on the one hand, while on the other hand the direct route to the opponent’s goal was sought when the ball was won.
Predicted line-up of Sheriff Tiraspol:
Athanasiadis – Christiano – Dulanto – Arboleda – Constanza -Thill – Addo – Castaneda – Kolovos – Bruno – Traoré
Last matches played by Sheriff Tiraspol:
Champions League Grp. D
12/07 2021 – Shakhtar Donetsk 1 – 1 FC Sheriff
National Division
12/02 2021 – CS Petrocub 0 – 0 FC Sheriff
11/28 2021 – FC Sheriff 7 – 0 Dinamo-Auto
Champions League Grp. D
11/24 2021 – FC Sheriff 0 – 3 Real Madrid
National Division
11/20 2021 – FC Floresti 1 – 3 FC Sheriff
Shakhtjor Donetsk – Sheriff Tiraspol Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 1 – 1 – 1
In the first leg, FC Sheriff celebrated their first win (2:0) in their third attempt against Donetsk. The Ukrainians had previously held their own in the Champions League Quali in the 2003/04 season, winning 2-0 at home in the return leg after a goalless draw in Moldova.
Shakhtjor Donetsk – Sheriff Tiraspol Tip
The bottom line prediction for Shakhtyor Donetsk against Sheriff Tiraspol goes in the direction of the Ukrainians, who clearly have more quality to bring to the table. However, there is nothing at stake for the Hirnyky in this match, which is why the focus should clearly be on the upcoming league match at the weekend, also with a view to the tight Premier League table.
Accordingly, the tendency is clearly towards a low-scoring game. Not only have the two teams scored a maximum of two goals in all three previous encounters, but the playfully superior Ukrainians have scored only one goal in five Champions League matches and have remained goalless in seven of their last eleven CL home games.
