Will the Europa League winners start with a win?
For a long time, it looked like Sevilla FC would have to make up for a poor 2022/23 season in the summer. While the Andalusians did indeed fall far short of their own standards in the domestic La Liga, the southern Spaniards saved their season in impressive fashion with another UEFA Europa League triumph. As the new round gets underway, however, coach Mendilibar’s men will be looking to put their best face forward again at national level.
The first chance for points comes on Friday evening in front of a home crowd. Then it comes to the encounter Sevilla against Valencia. The bet on the host’s success will be given lower odds. The “Nervionenses” have the status of favourites and want to make a good start to the season after relatively promising results in the test matches.
However, the visitors from the south-east coast of Spain will want to fight back with all their might, after all, the former Champions League finalists have also set their sights very high. After their near-relegation last season, however, little has happened on the entry side so far, which is why the performance of “Los Che” is once again difficult to assess. There are not many reasons to make a prediction on the away team for the La Liga opener between Sevilla and Valencia.
Sevilla – Statistics & current form
As is well known, football writes many crazy stories. The last season of Sevilla FC can also be called a curiosity. In La Liga, the Andalusians won just 13 of 38 games, at times slipping dangerously close to the relegation zone and ending the season in a sobering twelfth place, a full 22 points behind the top four they were aiming for.
The fact that, barely three months after the last league game, those responsible are nevertheless talking about an unforgettable 2022/23 season is linked exclusively to the sensational success in the Europa League. In the self-proclaimed favourite competition, the southern Spaniards eliminated top-class clubs such as PSV Eindhoven, Fenerbahce, Manchester United, Juventus and, finally, AS Roma in the final, thus crowning themselves in the Europa League/UEFA Cup for the seventh time (!).
Sevilla scores 1.88 points per game under Mendilibar
Incidentally, this also goes hand in hand with automatic qualification for the Champions League group stage this season, where they will be aiming to do better than they did in 2022/23, when they only finished third behind Manchester City and Dortmund. However, it is almost more important for the White and Reds to play a much better role in the day-to-day business in La Liga and to attack the top.
In terms of personnel, not much has changed in the summer, which is primarily due to the fact that the Andalusian top club is not financially well off at the moment and has to bake smaller bread. With the exception of left-back Pedrosa and ex-Frankfurt player Sow, nothing has happened on the acquisition side, but at least, as of today, almost all key players have been retained.
The “Nervionenses” have proved that the squad can nevertheless live up to the high expectations, not only in the Europa League, but also in general during the tenure of Jose Luis Mendilibar, who was only installed as the new coach at the end of March and can look back on a very pleasing record of nine wins, five draws and only three defeats in 17 competitive matches. Combine that with home advantage and the confidence boosted by test match wins against Betis Sevilla or Crystal Palace, and the odds on a home win between Sevilla and Valencia look much more interesting.
Predicted Sevilla line-up:
FC Sevilla (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1
Valencia – Statistics & current form
It was less than five years ago when Valencia crossed the finish line in fourth place in the Spanish top flight twice in a row under coach Marcelino, who incidentally has been coaching Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1 since the summer. Since then, however, a lot has happened. The former top team has become a grey mouse and threatens to disappear completely in the short to medium term.
Los Che” was almost hit last year. Only thanks to a positive final spurt with eight points from the final five league games did the bats climb above the line and end up two points ahead of the first relegation place. However, those who now believe that Valencia have had an active summer of transfers to counteract the negative development are wrong.
Preparation gives Valencia fans courage
Strictly speaking, the squad has only been strengthened with two new arrivals. Cenk Özkacar arrives as a centre-back from Olympique Lyon, Pepelu was signed from Levante in the second division. On the other hand, top talent Mensah and veteran Edinson Cavani left the club.
Especially offensively, there seems to be a lack of quality at the top and across the board. It is therefore quite possible that the odds on a home win without conceding a goal will pay off in the duel between Sevilla and Valencia. Especially considering that the white and black team was already one of the weaker offensive teams in La Liga in 2022/23.
However, the team of club legend Ruben Baraja should not be completely underestimated. After all, his charges celebrated four victories in a row at the beginning of the preparation period before losing the dress rehearsal against ambitious Aston Villa only narrowly with 1:2. However, because the bats were already extremely difficult away from home last season, losing 12 of their 19 away games and recording a total of just 13 points in their opponents’ stadiums, the prediction between Sevilla and Valencia is clearly in favour of the Andalusian hosts.
Predicted line-up of Valencia:
Valencia (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1
Sevilla – Valencia Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
The match between Sevilla and Valencia is a real evergreen in Spain’s top flight. This is the 157th time that the renowned clubs have faced each other in the country’s top division. Valencia lead the direct comparison with 69 wins and 58 defeats and only 29 draws.
However, Sevilla have won 45 of their 58 matches at home (17 draws, 16 defeats), which underlines their enormous home strength. Los Che” have not won at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán since 2019. Last season, they drew 1-1 in Sevilla, and the visitors even won 2-0 in Valencia.
Sevilla – Valencia Tip
The new La Liga season opens with two games on Friday evening. First, Almeria take on Rayo Vallecano, followed by the reigning Europa League winners at home. Less than a week before the European Super Cup final against Manchester City next Wednesday, the Andalusians want to celebrate a perfect start to the season and get their first three points.
The odds are pretty good, as the bookmakers are also offering lower betting odds on a home win between Sevilla and Valencia. In our eyes, these even bring an acceptable value, especially since the white-reds have a very decent record under coach Mendilibar, are traditionally considered strong at home and also left a positive impression in the recent test matches.
Although we are far from underestimating coach Ruben Baraja’s visiting team, we see a number of advantages for the southern Spanish home side, who face an opponent who lost 12 of 19 away matches last year and who have hardly been able to strengthen their team significantly in the summer. Especially offensively, it remains to be seen how the bats will improve on their already poor 2022/23 record.
